Patriots lead the way in NFL FPI playoff projections

ESPN Production Analytics

Oct 7, 2015, 03:39 PM

After a bye week and a Cardinals loss at home to the Rams, the New England Patriots moved up to No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

FPI projects that the Patriots now have a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs and an NFL-best 22 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

Despite their loss, the Arizona Cardinals remain second in FPI, but saw their chances of winning their division drop from 86 percent to 69 percent since last week. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances of winning their division rose from 60 percent to 78 percent (most of any team in Week 4) after building a two-game lead in the AFC North.

In the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are both 4-0, but have drastically different playoff projections. The key is to look at the their schedules; the Panthers have played FPI’s easiest schedule in the league so far, and they still have their 10 toughest games remaining. In comparison, the Falcons already played three of their five toughest games and are projected to play FPI’s easiest remaining schedule.

Atlanta also avoids Seattle and Green Bay, both of whom Carolina faces as a result of their first-place finish last season, which is a major reason why the Falcons have a 97 percent chance to make the playoffs through four weeks.

Finally, the NFC East is still projected to be the closest divisional race. The Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys all project to win between 7.5 and 8.5 games.

NFL Football Power Index

TEAM	FPI	PROJECTED WINS	CHANCE TO WIN DIV.	CHANCE TO MAKE PLAYOFFS	CHANCE TO WIN SB
Patriots	7.8	12.0	76.6%	95.8%	21.5%
Cardinals	7.2	10.9	69.4%	88.5%	16.5%
Packers	5.4	11.8	94.4%	97.1%	15.0%
Seahawks	4.2	9.1	20.9%	55.3%	2.6%
Bengals	4.1	11.1	78.2%	89.7%	9.3%
Eagles	4.0	8.5	38.5%	47.5%	2.1%
Falcons	3.8	12.2	79.0%	97.0%	11.2%
Broncos	3.6	11.2	83.1%	90.2%	8.9%
Jets	2.9	9.9	18.3%	69.9%	2.8%
Steelers	2.8	8.6	13.5%	33.7%	1.6%
Bills	2.5	8.5	5.0%	39.2%	1.2%
Ravens	2.4	8.1	8.1%	24.7%	0.6%
Colts	1.7	8.7	66.4%	68.2%	1.9%
Chiefs	0.5	7.6	5.4%	19.1%	0.3%
Panthers	0.4	9.8	20.1%	67.5%	1.7%
Cowboys	0.3	7.7	26.3%	33.4%	1.1%
Giants	0.0	8.1	28.7%	36.5%	0.4%
Chargers	-0.5	8.1	10.8%	26.5%	0.4%
Rams	-0.9	8.0	9.5%	31.3%	0.4%
Vikings	-1.1	7.5	4.8%	20.4%	0.2%
Titans	-1.5	7.3	20.1%	23.1%	0.2%
Saints	-1.6	6.7	0.9%	7.7%	0.0%
Lions	-1.6	6.0	0.8%	4.7%	0.0%
Texans	-2.7	6.1	11.1%	12.2%	0.1%
Dolphins	-2.8	5.4	0.1%	1.6%	0.0%
Redskins	-2.9	6.5	6.5%	10.2%	0.1%
Browns	-4.9	4.7	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%
49ers	-6.1	4.7	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%
Raiders	-6.2	5.6	0.8%	2.5%	0.0%
Jaguars	-6.5	5.0	2.4%	2.9%	0.0%
Bears	-6.8	5.1	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%
Buccaneers	-7.7	4.8	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%

For a full explanation on how the FPI is put together, please read this explainer. For more background, you can also read this Q&A with the developers of the FPI.

Matchups to watch in Week 5

Top game: Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals

- Bengals: 60 percent chance to win (plus-3.6 predicted point difference)

- Highest pregame matchup quality of the week (75.3 on 0-100 scale)

- One of five remaining games between FPI top-5 teams

Biggest toss-up: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

- Titans: 50.6 percent chance to win (plus-0.3 predicted point difference)

- Marcus Mariota: 35.3 Total QBR since Week 2 (95.7 in Week 1)

- Bills: Lowest opponent Total QBR (37.1) since the start of last season

Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers

- Chargers: 53 percent chance to win (plus-1.1 predicted point difference)

- Steelers: approximately 46 percent chance to make playoffs if they win and a 23 percent chance if they lose (currently 34 percent playoff probability)

- Chargers: approximately 36 percent chance to make playoffs if they win and a 16 percent chance if they lose (currently 26 percent playoff probability)

Stats & Info