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Special to ESPN.com- Licensed professional engineer with 20 years experience
- Uses advanced metrics to find betting market inefficiencies
- Specializes in NFL and CFB totals
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ESPN Sports Betting Analyst- Professional sports bettor finding advantages in inefficient markets
- Joined ESPN in 2019
- MS Sport Psychology, University of Utah
It's Week 3 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New Orleans
Sharp: Julio Jones was still sidelined Thursday after straining his calf, and while he says it's not a problem, you absolutely need to see his injury status in order to back the Falcons in this spot. Last week the Falcons defense was exposed by the Panthers, who ironically have a similar offense in 2018 to the Saints. New Orleans is far more explosive, but both have middling rushing games and throw the ball a lot to their top RB. Carolina's defense allowed the Falcons, who typically struggle in the red zone, to go 4-for-4 in Week 2's game. Atlanta's run defense ranks No. 31, which will be welcomed after the Saints struggled to run against the Browns.
Atlanta's offense runs through Jones, who was the only player targeted more than five times. The targets to Jones last week were not overly successful but should fare better against a Saints defense that ranks 30th defending opposing WR1s.