Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season concludes with an AFC East "Monday Night Football" showdown between Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets from MetLife Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN). The Jets enter at 2-3 with an interim head coach and new offensive playcaller.
Robert Saleh was fired last Tuesday after the Jets' sluggish start to the season. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich replaces him on an interim basis. Ulbrich will attempt to earn the first win of his coaching career against a Bills team that might be extra motivated from suffering a Week 5 loss to the Houston Texans. Despite the under .500 start, the Jets still have a chance to earn first place in the division with a win in this game and will be looking to jump-start their offense with a new playcaller, Todd Downing.
The line for Monday's game is now at Bills -1 at ESPN BET after opening at Bills -3 last week. The line didn't move much during the week, but as kickoff nears, New York has moved to even on the moneyline.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Bills (-1)
Money line: Bills (-120). Jets (Even)
Over/Under: 40.5
First-half spread: Bills -0.5 (Even)/Jets +0.5 (-120)
Bills total points: O/U 20.5 points (-110/-120)
Jets total points: O/U 19.5 points (-125/-105)
The props
Passing
Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: O/U 224.5 yards (Even/-130)
Josh Allen total passing yards: O/U 199.5 yards (-130/Even)
Allen total passing TDs: O/U 1.5 TDs (+160/-210)
Rushing
James Cook total rushing yards: O/U 59.5 (+120/-155)
Breece Hall total rushing yards: O/U 49.5 (-145/+115)
Josh Allen total rushing yards: O/U 29.5 (-135/+105)
Braelon Allen total rushing yards: O/U 34.5 (+105/-135)
Receiving
Garrett Wilson total receiving yards: O/U 59.5 (-125/-105)
Allen Lazard total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-125/-105)
Tyler Conklin total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (-110/-120)
Dalton Kincaid total receiving yards: O/U 39.5 (-120/-110)
Breece Hall total receiving yards: O/U 24.5 (-125/-105)
Keon Coleman total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-125/-105)
Mike Williams total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (+105/-135)
James Cook total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-120/-110)
Ben Solak's pick
Breece Hall over 3.5 receptions (-125).
We aren't exactly sure what offense is going to look like in New York with Ulbrich and Downing. But we do know that the Bills surrender receptions to running backs by playing their deep zones and forcing checkdowns, and we know that Aaron Rodgers needs to get rid of the ball quickly behind this offensive line. If this ends up being a "get back to basics" game for the Jets, I think you'll see them funnel touches in Hall's direction.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Bills vs. Jets
Khalil Shakir has gone over his receiving yards prop in three straight games, tied for the longest active streak by a wide receiver.
Tyler Conklin has not scored a touchdown since 2022, a streak of 17 straight starts. He is +375 to find the end zone in Week 6.
Josh Allen is +145 to throw multiple passing touchdowns Monday night, however, the Jets have only allowed two passing touchdowns all season.
Teams coming off a game in Europe without taking a bye week are 8-7 ATS.
Four straight Jets games have gone under the total. All three Bills road games this season have gone under the total. Unders are 15-4 in Bills road games since 2022. Five straight Bills-Jets meetings have gone under the total.
Aaron Rodgers is 7-1 ATS and 6-1-1 outright in his career as a home underdog (6-1 ATS if you exclude last year's Bills-Jets game when he was injured on the first series).
The Jets have won each of the last two home meetings, both as underdogs. They were 2.5-point underdogs last season and 10.5-point underdogs in 2022.
The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs.
The Bills are 3-7 ATS in prime-time games over the past two seasons.