For a team that came into the season as the favorites to win the AFC East for the first time since 1999, the New York Jets find themselves at a major crossroads as they prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in a key divisional showdown Monday night.
The franchise sent shockwaves through it's locker room and the NFL last Tuesday when it fired coach Robert Saleh, replacing him with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in the interim lead role. The move could have numerous implications for the team's future, and when they return to action on "Monday Night Football," they'll test the notion that teams might play better the week after a coach gets fired.
Since 2020, teams that dismiss their coach midseason are 9-2 against the spread in the first game with an interim head coach, according to ESPN Research. Since 2014, that record goes to 15-4 ATS, with the teams covering the spread by 4.2 points per game and increasing their point differential by 16.3 on average.
There are a few caveats to consider off of that. The first is that generally when a team fires a coach in-season, the season is already lost.
For example, when Brandon Staley was fired last season after Week 15, the Los Angeles Chargers were 5-9. The team was essentially already out of playoff contention and was given 12.5 points against the juggernaut Bills in Week 16. That huge spread allowed L.A. to cover easily despite the public heavily backing Buffalo to the tune of 86% of the bets and 81.6% of the handle, per ESPN BET. Bookmakers say a line like that is more based off of matchups and recent performance rather than any change in the coaching staff.
"[The Chargers] had a stretch where they scored like 17 points in three games leading up to that firing," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "The Chargers were not bet that game. The Bills were just coming off beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the Cowboys at home. So [the public] did not side with the Chargers in that one."
So it's fascinating, then, that not only did the Jets open as small home underdogs for "Monday Night Football," they have actually gotten even shorter despite overwhelming public support for Buffalo, both shortly after the news and throughout the week, per DraftKings.
BetMGM and ESPN BET report upward of 71% of the tickets backing the Bills, though the latter notes that 60.3% of the handle is on New York. Even so, following Week 5, the Jets were a consensus 2.5-point underdog and are now seeing lines of +1 or +1.5, depending on the book.
The tight spread is indicative of the fact the Jets still have a lot to play for. ESPN FPI says that New York has a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, actually a slight improvement on the 57% they showed at the beginning of the season. Some sportsbooks are still offering minus odds on the Jets to play in the postseason, and FanDuel says it has seen "sustained money coming in" for their regular-season win total and odds to win the AFC East.
The second factor potentially affecting the "coach-firing bump" is the emotional reaction for the team. In another example from 2023, the Las Vegas Raiders fired Josh McDaniels after Week 8 and replaced him with current full-time head coach Antonio Pierce -- by all accounts a "players' coach." The Raiders responded by blowing out the New York Giants 30-6 the next week, easily covering their -1.5 spread.
Emotion, of course, is one of the hardest aspects of linemaking that bookmakers attempt to account for.
"I believe in it, I'm not sure how much of an adjustment we can make on it," Avello said. "Can't be looking at the emotion of the game because I don't know those emotions. I can assume what they're going to be, but I don't know how long they'll last once that game starts."
It remains to be seen how that intangible emotional factor will affect the Jets. Saleh seemed to be well-liked, but so too is Ulbrich, and then there is the rampant speculation on quarterback Aaron Rodgers' mindset concerning the whole situation. If nothing else, it will hopefully produce an entertaining contest for bettors and casual fans alike.