Can you believe it's Week 11 already? It feels like the season just got underway, yet here we are with fewer games ahead of us than behind. Where does the time go?
Last week, I hit on two of my three props, with Sam Darnold falling miserably short of his 1.5 passing touchdowns and instead throwing three interceptions... including two of them in the end zone. What can I say, you win some you lose some.
But today is a new day, with new props, new lines and new opportunities in front of us. Let's dive into the Week 11 props that pop! -- Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
Dopp: Goff is coming off his worst game of the season in which he threw five interceptions. It wasn't pretty in Houston, as the Texans' defense harassed him early and often.
The Jaguars' defense hasn't been quite as good against quarterbacks, registering only 21 sacks on the season (eighth-fewest in the league) and only five interceptions (seventh-fewest). The Lions will assuredly plan to utilize their RBs in this one. And while that could mean potential ground-game touchdowns, you better believe that Lions OC Ben Johnson has plans to get Goff back on track with some easy passes in the short game. Over the past seven games, Goff has six outings with at least two touchdowns, with the rainy outdoor game at Lambeau Field being the only exception. On top of that, Jacksonville has given up 19 touchdown passes this year, the fourth-most in the NFL.
In what looks like a rebound game at home against a struggling Jacksonville team, I'm fully expecting to see the MVP-level Goff we've seen tor most of the season.
By the way, notice how this Goff touchdown prop leans right into the Jake Bates extra point prop (you'll see it below). We're all about correlation when looking at potential same game parlays!
Mac Jones UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (+100)
Dopp: You may be saying to yourself: this doesn't feel like it correlates well with the other two props. I mean, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs and likely have to throw the ball a ton, which would mean taking the over on pass attempts here.
But, not so fast my friend.
First off, Jones doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. In order to throw the ball a lot, you have to stay on the field a fair amount, and the potential for the Lions to dominate time of position through their ground game is a serious threat to that possibility. Add in the propensity for short drives or three-and-outs from Mac's offense and you'll start to see why coming up short of this line is a real possibility.
And even though the Jags have been playing catchup in the majority of their games, Trevor Lawrence only hit this line twice in nine games, and the Lions have only allowed one QB to go over 34.5 pass attempts all season. In fact, the Jags have failed to achieve a first down on 41.5% of their drives this season, third-worst in the NFL.
While it may seem like game script could dictate a lot of throwing, the Jags will have to put together a lot of successful drives in order to maintain the volume needed to go over this mark, something I don't see happening given their inability to achieve first downs. It's always possible that the Jags could surprise us, but I'm following the trends.
Running back props
Christian McCaffrey OVER 74.5 rushing yards, scores rushing TD, 49ers win (+190)
Liz Loza: McCaffrey made his 2024 debut last Sunday, logging 19 touches for over 100 scrimmage yards. So much for being eased back into action.
McCaffrey may have looked a bit rusty as a rusher, averaging 3.0 YPC in Week 10, but I'm confident he'll return to form versus a gettable Seahawks run defense that has allowed the fourth-highest YPC at 4.8. To the point, CMC has registered at least 75 rushing yards in each of his four meetings as a 49er when facing Seattle. In fact, he's actually cleared 100 rushing yards in each of those efforts.
Additionally, the Seahawks have given up eight scores to RBs in nine games played thus far, making McCaffery (who led the position in total scores in 2023) a solid bet to find pay dirt. McCaffrey's ability to elevate the offense cannot be overstated, particularly in matchups versus Seattle. Interestingly, San Francisco is 4-0 against the Seahawks in the regular season (5-0, when including the playoffs) since CMC was traded to the 49ers on Oct. 20, 2022. I'm all in on this special wager for a special player!
Nick Chubb OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
Loza: Chubb is averaging under 3.0 YPC, but many didn't even think it was possible for him to return from a second catastrophic knee injury. While he has managed 37.7 rushing yards per contest and has yet to clear the above line, I'm betting on Chubb to remain extraordinary. With three contests under his belt, and fresh off a bye, the 28-year-old should cruise at the Big Easy.
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 5.2 YPC (second-highest) and over 113 rushing yards per game (sixth-most) to opposing RBs. Given Chubb's workhorse status, volume shouldn't be an issue, as he's managed at least 15 carries in back-to-back games. That kind of volume, in combination with a soft matchup, and Jameis Winston's ability to stretch the field, Chubb (who averaged over 85 rushing yards per outing from 2019 through 2023) figures to record his best effort of the season on Sunday.
Tight end props
Travis Kelce OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+100) and 1+ TD (+140)
Loza: Remember the start of the season when the fantasy community was wringing its collective hands over Kelce's lack of production? My how times have changed.
Rashee Rice's injury in Week 4 forced Kelce to become more involved. The star tight end has since averaged an NFL-best 8.7 receptions per game and has commanded nearly one-third of the Chiefs' target share. That increase in volume has, naturally, created an uptick in production, as Kelce has averaged nearly 72 receiving yards per game (clearing the above line in four of his past six outings) during that span.
He'll travel to Orchard Park in Week 11. Interestingly, Kelce has either scored or gone over 80 receiving yards in each of his past seven meetings against the Buffalo Bills, including postseason outings. I like the odds of both occurring in what is projected to be a close game on Sunday.
Kicker (yes, kicker) props
Jake Bates OVER 3.5 extra points (+130)
Dopp: All of my props this week are from the same game, as the Detroit Lions take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Motor City. You can play these props solo or put them into a same-game parlay (SGP) for a little extra fun.
I specifically wanted to tackle this game, not because of my Lions fandom, but because of the outrageous 14-point spread, the biggest so far in the 2024 NFL season.
There has to be some good value that we can find in this one, and I'm going with Mr. Clutch himself. After knocking down two 50-plus yard field goals last week to lead the Lions to an 8-1 start, Bates' prop line for XP's comes in at 3.5. It's a hefty number, don't get me wrong, but I'm all about this one.
Bates has four games this season with four or more extra points. In fact, in every game the Lions have scored at least 30 points, Bates has had at least four extra points. Given the two-touchdown edge Detroit is getting, I'm feeling mighty comfortable in this Lions offense getting back on track after eeking out a win in Houston where Jared Goff threw five(!) interceptions.
As of publish time, the game total is 46.5, which has to favor a Lions offense that averages 30 points per game. This high-scoring offense now gets a Jags team that has given up 30 touchdowns in 10 games so far this year -- an average of three per game.
Call me optimistic in believing that the Lions, against a Mac Jones-led Jaguars team, should dominate time of possession and find themselves scoring in bunches. Plus they're at home, coming off a close win in which the offense didn't play particularly well, which is why this feels like a great "get right game" for Detroit.
That's why I'm taking former UFL superstar Jake Bates to go over 3.5 extra points in Week 11.