Driver contracts are a never-ending talking point across any given Formula 1 year, but the upcoming 2026 season holds even more speculation than usual.
Individual and team performances rise and fall over the year as new technical developments emerge and other teams close the gap. On the one hand, poor car performance could mean that top drivers may be tempted to look elsewhere for a seat, but on the other hand, poor driver performance could result in a sacking at the end of the season, or even more brutal in mid-season.
Aside from two extra drivers joining the grid, reports of Mercedes eyeing up four-time world champion Max Verstappen, and swaps at Alpine and Red Bull, the 2025 driver market never really threw up any surprises. But that's because most drivers and teams are waiting to see how things play out in the new era of regulations and cars before eyeing up any potential moves (or perhaps retirements).
As F1 prepares for preseason testing, all eyes will be on the timing sheets and how each team has interpreted the rules with their designs. But ultimately, nobody can know exactly how they stack up in terms of on-track performance until the season gets underway.
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Possible moves this season
Almost no driver or seat is safe in Formula 1, and with the number of clauses in contracts, expiry dates don't prevent exits, sackings or negotiations to move on or retire.
These are the drivers to keep your eye on in 2026:
Max Verstappen comments on his meeting with Mercedes Team Principle Toto Wolff over the summer break midst rumours of him leaving Red Bull.
Max Verstappen:
The four-time world champion joined Red Bull in 2016 after making his F1 debut just one year earlier. He is contracted to Red Bull until 2028. The team were largely uncompetitive for the first half of the season after a downturn in performance from 2024. Verstappen was not considered a title contender until a surprising uptick in performance in the second half of the season. That, combined with the Dutchman capitalising on McLaren's errors put him in a tantalising three-way title fight into the final few races.
At one point, Helmut Marko remarked that before the title fight, Verstappen had "lost interest" in F1. Meanwhile, Verstappen was courted by Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, who made no secret of his interest in signing the 28-year-old. Wolff delayed George Russell's contract renewal and Russell himself suggested it was due to the team's interest in signing Verstappen.
However, Verstappen ended speculation after the summer break, reaffirming his commitment to Red Bull in 2026, but 2027 and beyond is anyone's guess.
Finally, Verstappen has made no secret of his desire to leave F1 when he is no longer enjoying himself. In November, he said: "My contract runs until 2028 but it [his future] will depend on the new rules in 2026, and if they are nice and fun.
"I can leave the sport easily tomorrow."
Red Bull:
It's no secret that Red Bull go through drivers quickly (unless your name is Max Verstappen). At the end of 2024, Red Bull dropped Sergio Perez (who returns in 2026 with Cadillac); in Perez's place, Liam Lawson was promoted. But the New Zealander was dropped after just 99 days and swapped places with Yuki Tsunoda from Racing Bulls who went on to become Verstappen's teammate.
Tsunoda was dropped at the end of 2025, and Racing Bulls prodigy Isack Hadjar has been promoted to Red Bull for 2026.
Watch this space to see how the next part plays out.
George Russell:
Russell signed a contract extension with Mercedes for 2026. Sources with knowledge of the deal told ESPN that it is a one-plus-one deal (common in F1), with clauses for a second season in 2027 if certain circumstances are met.
Russell said a seat at Mercedes for 2027 "is in my hands."
"It is something I haven't actually said publicly, but the deal is, if I'm performing [next year], we have a specific clause that if I reach [a target], we will automatically renew for 2027," the Briton said.
Could Russell and Verstappen end up as teammates at Mercedes? Well, the pair have a frosty relationship from previous fiery interactions, but it's not out of the question should Verstappen want to move to the team. Similarly, there's no reason why Russell couldn't move on from Mercedes -- whom he joined in 2022 -- although this is unlikely with Wolff as his manager.
Mercedes' second driver, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, was also renewed for 2026 after an encouraging rookie year which saw him stand thrice on the podium. However, his form was inconsistent and time will tell whether his F1 future for 2027 is in his hands.
Fernando Alonso:
Fernando Alonso joined Aston Martin in 2023, when four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel retired from F1. In 2024, Alonso signed a deal through to 2026 but last year hinted at leaving the sport once more depending on the competitiveness of the car.
Alonso, 44, a two-time champion and F1's oldest driver on the grid, has left F1 previously in 2019, pursuing other racing series before he returned in 2021.
The team has struggled in the midfield for the past two seasons, but have new faces and leadership led by legendary car designer Adrian Newey, who is now team principal. Aston Martin are expected to be strong contenders in 2026, but ultimately time will tell once the cars take to the track.
Last year, the Spaniard talked about retiring on a high: "It depends on the feeling I have next year, how I feel physically and mentally," he said when asked what factors would convince him to retire at the end of 2026.
"But I don't know. Now I don't have a clear idea. If the car went well, there's a good chance it will be my last year."
However, he added that it was more likely Aston Martin would hit its stride in 2027 or 2028, and did not rule out staying at the team longer if 2026 does not deliver satisfactory results.
"[Retirement] will not be due to lack of competitiveness," he said. "I don't want to leave because I have lost my skills. I'm going to enjoy next year and I'll take it year after year. But yes, I want to leave it on high."
Watch this space.
Lewis Hamilton:
Lewis Hamilton is the most decorated driver in Formula 1. He boasts seven world titles (and almost won an eighth), has more wins and pole positions than any other driver by a country mile and holds numerous records.
In 2025, he joined Ferrari -- F1's most successful team (though they haven't won a world title since 2008). However, they did not exactly hit the ground running. A handful of fourth-placed finishes was the best the British driver would achieve. It was the first year of his storied career he failed to record a single trip to the podium in a full-length race.
At times he labeled the season a "nightmare," called himself "useless" and suggested the team switch drivers. But when asked about his future in F1, he said: "I have a pretty long contract. Normally when you do a contract, it is the year before that you start to talk about it, so I am a little bit far from that point."
His stats already make him one of the greatest drivers of all time, and as the second-oldest driver it would not be out of the question for him to leave the sport. But, despite the frustrating debut season with Ferrari, he still has the desire to continue and seek top performances and results.
He ended the 2025 season describing what keeps him going: "The love of what you do, the love of racing. The support of people around me, my fans, and keeping alive a dream. And I still have a dream."
While he may already be one of the greatest drivers of all time, he's not done yet.
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