topsecretdailynotesfile

Apr 3, 2026, 01:07 PM

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.5	Dylan Cease	R	@CWS	98.0%	43%	5.9	6.8	2.2	6.7
12.0	Bryan Woo	R	@LAA	99.5%	44%	5.6	6.2	2.4	5.6
10.9	Nolan McLean	R	@SF	88.4%	40%	5.7	7.3	2.3	5.4
10.2	Framber Valdez	L	STL	98.5%	35%	5.9	7.7	2.8	5.6
10.0	Eury Perez	R	@NYY	89.7%	30%	4.9	6.0	2.1	5.4
9.6	Cade Horton	R	@CLE	60.2%	37%	5.2	6.4	2.2	4.6
9.1	Michael King	R	@BOS	84.9%	34%	5.3	7.1	2.8	5.9
9.1	Mitch Keller	R	BAL	30.7%	34%	5.6	7.4	2.8	5.1
9.1	Bailey Ober	R	TB	23.7%	29%	5.4	6.8	2.7	5.1
8.6	Kyle Bradish	R	@PIT	88.6%	25%	4.9	6.6	2.4	5.4
8.6	Michael McGreevy	R	@DET	10.4%	32%	5.8	7.3	2.9	4.4
8.6	Will Warren	R	MIA	18.1%	25%	5.2	7.0	2.5	5.2
8.3	MacKenzie Gore	L	CIN	85.2%	30%	5.3	7.6	2.9	5.9
8.2	Grant Holmes	R	@ARI	5.7%	30%	5.1	7.2	2.7	5.4
7.9	Brady Singer	R	@TEX	15.2%	29%	5.4	7.4	3.0	5.1
7.9	Joe Boyle	R	@MIN	5.4%	21%	4.7	6.7	2.3	5.3
7.7	Emmet Sheehan	R	@WSH	71.5%	25%	4.7	6.2	2.6	5.0
7.6	Tyler Mahle	R	NYM	3.3%	20%	4.9	6.6	2.2	4.3
7.6	Sonny Gray	R	SD	92.6%	24%	5.3	7.4	3.4	5.9
7.0	Chad Patrick	R	@KC	10.0%	31%	5.0	7.0	2.9	4.6
6.8	Jeffrey Springs	L	HOU	4.4%	28%	5.1	7.2	2.9	4.4
6.6	Sean Burke	R	TOR	0.8%	21%	5.0	7.2	2.9	4.8
6.5	Cristian Javier	R	@ATH	4.1%	19%	4.7	6.7	2.6	4.4
6.4	Joey Cantillo	L	CHC	10.8%	15%	4.6	7.1	2.6	5.2
6.0	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	ATL	5.2%	25%	5.3	8.0	3.3	4.9
5.1	Reid Detmers	L	SEA	8.9%	18%	5.2	8.1	3.8	5.6
4.4	Miles Mikolas	R	LAD	0.4%	20%	4.9	7.2	3.3	3.7
2.8	Luinder Avila	R	MIL	0.1%	16%	4.8	8.5	3.6	4.4
2.6	Aaron Nola	R	@COL	64.7%	32%	5.5	8.7	5.6	6.0
-0.7	Michael Lorenzen	R	PHI	0.7%	18%	4.7	8.3	5.4	4.5

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
12.5	Tyler Glasnow	R	@WSH	90.1%	44%	5.6	6.5	2.2	6.2
11.0	Shota Imanaga	L	@CLE	75.3%	41%	5.5	6.7	2.5	5.9
10.8	Anthony Kay	L	TOR	0.5%	37%	5.7	7.1	2.2	5.0
10.1	Jack Flaherty	R	STL	62.7%	34%	5.5	7.1	2.7	5.9
9.9	Ryan Weathers	L	MIA	11.1%	27%	5.1	6.5	2.2	5.3
9.6	Tatsuya Imai	R	@ATH	44.1%	33%	5.5	7.5	2.7	5.8
8.9	Shane Baz	R	@PIT	41.7%	33%	5.3	7.2	2.6	5.2
8.4	Clay Holmes	R	@SF	20.8%	34%	5.2	7.1	2.3	4.3
8.2	Seth Lugo	R	MIL	25.7%	35%	5.8	7.8	3.2	4.9
8.0	Michael Soroka	R	ATL	9.8%	26%	5.0	6.6	2.6	4.9
8.0	Landen Roupp	R	NYM	5.1%	22%	5.0	6.9	2.4	4.8
7.7	Lazaro Estrada	R	@CWS	0.1%	17%	4.8	6.3	2.3	4.5
7.5	Kumar Rocker	R	CIN	1.6%	21%	4.8	6.3	2.6	4.8
7.4	Luis Morales	R	HOU	0.7%	26%	4.9	7.0	2.7	5.1
7.2	Max Meyer	R	@NYY	7.2%	25%	5.1	7.4	3.1	5.4
6.6	Dustin May	R	@DET	2.9%	27%	5.3	7.7	3.3	5.0
6.5	Bryce Elder	R	@ARI	3.5%	30%	5.3	7.8	3.2	4.7
6.5	Rhett Lowder	R	@TEX	3.6%	25%	4.9	7.0	2.8	4.5
6.4	Slade Cecconi	R	CHC	2.5%	19%	5.1	7.0	3.0	4.5
6.2	Steven Matz	L	@MIN	1.8%	24%	4.5	6.6	2.5	4.2
5.8	Emerson Hancock	R	@LAA	41.8%	31%	4.9	7.1	3.1	4.2
5.5	Jesus Luzardo	L	@COL	97.1%	38%	5.5	8.2	4.7	6.3
5.4	Jake Irvin	R	LAD	0.8%	18%	5.4	7.8	3.5	4.4
5.4	Connelly Early	L	SD	28.1%	18%	4.6	7.1	3.0	4.6
5.0	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	BAL	1.7%	13%	4.2	6.3	2.5	4.0
5.0	Randy Vasquez	R	@BOS	20.3%	29%	4.9	7.2	3.2	3.8
4.3	Brandon Sproat	R	@KC	3.3%	19%	4.5	7.0	3.1	3.9
3.5	Mick Abel	R	TB	3.2%	12%	4.5	7.7	3.2	4.5
2.6	Jack Kochanowicz	R	SEA	0.2%	22%	4.8	8.0	3.6	3.4
-1.4	Chase Dollander	R	PHI	0.5%	16%	4.5	8.3	5.3	4.3

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37