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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Patrick Corbin will take the mound Tuesday agains the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 28, 2022, 02:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • Nobody is going to like it, but Patrick Corbin (35% rostered in ESPN leagues) is easily the top streaming option that's available in at least half of leagues today. He faces the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are a bottom-five offense overall and often a top-five offense for strikeouts. Corbin's 6.60 ERA is awful, but his 4.33 xFIP lends at least some hope that he's still just getting really unlucky and can perform well enough in a strong matchup.

          • If you just can't stomach Corbin, Jon Gray (64% rostered) may be available and gets a decent matchup against the Royals. It's hot in Kansas City (84 degrees) and Kauffman Stadium suppresses strikeouts, but Gray has been quite good this year (9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.61 xFIP) and the Royals are a below-average offense.

          • If you're a Clayton Kershaw manager, you probably want to sit him on your bench today. He's going into Coors Field, where it will be 91 degrees, to face a Rockies lineup that is low-strikeout against lefties. THE BAT X projects a 4.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and just 4.0 strikeouts in this matchup. Wait for his next start.

          • The Twins and Guardians are playing a double-header on Tuesday, which means any player that plays both games will automatically be one of the best streamers of the day. Franmil Reyes (56%), Max Kepler (69%), Amed Rosario (55%), Josh Naylor (44%), Gio Urshela (22%), Myles Straw (36%), and Andres Gimenez (36%) are your best bets. If none of them are available, Oscar Gonzalez (5%) almost certainly is and has a decent chance of playing both games.

          • The Dodgers in Coors are by far the top offense of the day, projecting for nearly eight runs in THE BAT X while nobody else sniffs even six. Of course, most of the team is rostered already, but with Mookie Betts out you can likely find Trayce Thompson (less than 1%) out there, and he gets a primo matchup against a lefty with a wide platoon split. Outside of the Dodgers, the Reds project well (3rd-best of the day) in Wrigley with double-digit winds blowing out. Jonathan India (72%), Joey Votto (67%), Tommy Pham (55%), and Kyle Farmer (58%) are all terrific plays. Mike Moustakas (8%) and Nick Senzel (1%) are also great plays that are more widely available.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Kyle Freeland Strikeouts: Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+115)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Freeland putting up 3.0 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 40.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $28.39.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Chris Guccione profiles as a "pitchers umpire" and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.

          • Kyle Freeland has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.99 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 7.03 - a 1.05 K/9 gap.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • Coors Field grades out as the No. 30 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, via THE BAT projection system.

          • High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest temperature of all games today at 92 degrees.

          • The Los Angeles Dodgers have six bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Freeland in this matchup.

          • Freeland's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (89.8 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).