For the most part, the best teams in the Premier League are the ones that create more chances than their opponents. The worst teams are the ones that do the opposite.
The top three teams -- Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool -- are the only three squads that attempt at least 65% of all the shots from chances created in their matches. (No one else in the league is above 55%.) Meanwhile, the bottom three, Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United, all attempt no more than 41% of the shots in their games. The only other team below that number, West Ham, just announced that their coach will be leaving at the end of the season.
This all applies even more when you control the quality of the attempts. Measured by expected-goal differential, the top three teams are all above plus-40, while no one else in the league is north of plus-20. As for the bottom three, they're all at minus-28 or worse -- no other team in the competition sits below minus-20.
But if we look at shot conversion, we stop learning about how the game works. Arsenal are third, Man City are fifth and Liverpool are 13th for the percentage of their shots that become goals. The bottom three consists of Everton, Sheffield United and Brighton.
So, over the course of the season, you win soccer games by creating more opportunities than your opponent, and you lose soccer games by letting your opponent do the same. But obviously, you actually score the goals by kicking or heading the ball into the net. If a team could figure out a way to score with 100% of the shots it takes, that team would only need to take three shots per game to be the best team in Premier League history.
But no team in the league is scoring with even 15% of its attempts this season. Of the 9,886 shots taken in the Premier League, 8,666 of them didn't become goals. Some of those misses were more embarrassing than others, and a few of them had outsized impact on who might win the league, who might qualify for the Champions League, or who might get relegated.
And so, we present to you: a ranking of the worst misses of the 2023-24 Premier League season and a look at the misses that most affected the title race, relegation battle and Champions League qualification.