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          Fantasy Forecaster: May 2-8

          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Apr 29, 2016, 02:28 PM

          Fantasy Forecaster updated Sunday, May 1, at 4:13 p.m. ET.

          On tap: It's encore time for the kids, as we've already seen the big league debuts of much-heralded prospects Jose Berrios of the Minnesota Twins, Michael Fulmer of the Detroit Tigers and Sean Manaea of the Oakland Athletics, and in Week 5, we'll see each make big league start No. 2. Berrios will pitch May 3 at Houston's Minute Maid Park, Fulmer May 5 at Cleveland's Progressive Field and Manaea May 4 vs. the Seattle Mariners. All three grade as fantasy-worthy plays, with Berrios the lone two-start pitcher of the trio, and Manaea garnering the best ranking thanks to his being the only one with a home start, his against a lefty-leaning Mariners lineup.

          Two pitchers will make visits to their 2015 homes, as San Francisco Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto, on May 2, returns to Cincinnati and Great American Ball Park for the first time since his July 26, 2015, trade to the Kansas City Royals. Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller, off to a brutal start, on May 7 returns to Atlanta and Turner Field, a venue at which he had a 2.43 ERA in his 17 starts for the Atlanta Braves last season.

          We have seen two of the best individual performances by a left-handed starter at Toronto's Rogers Centre in the past calendar year thrown within the past week, Chris Sale's 74 Game Score on April 26 and Jose Quintana's 71 on April 27, and once again the traditional wisdom that you should sit all visiting lefties to Toronto will be put to the test, as Los Angeles Dodgers ace and three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch there on May 8. That's not to say that sitting Kershaw should ever be a consideration, but the Toronto Blue Jays' 2016 returns against lefties -- .224/.282/.393 triple-slash rates and a 26.8 percent strikeout rate -- give Kershaw a fighting chance at the week's best individual pitching performance.

          If you're a believer in Dallas Keuchel's extreme home/road splits -- he has a 1.38 ERA in his home games and 4.17 on the road since the beginning of last season -- you'll be pleased to learn that he's a two-start pitcher working entirely at home in Week 5: He'll face the Twins on May 2 and Mariners on May 8.

          The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers match up for the first time since the infamous "bat flip" game (2015 American League Division Series Game 5), and in the same venue in which that game took place, Toronto's Rogers Centre, from May 2-5. Sadly, we will not see either of the starters from that game, Cole Hamels and Marcus Stroman, during the series, but perhaps Rangers reliever Sam Dyson, who served up the home run to Jose Bautista, will make an appearance.

          Quickly jump to any section, if you want specific intel

          ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines

          It's another Monday with nothing but night games, so fantasy owners have until 7 p.m. ET -- that's the scheduled start of the Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates game on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball -- to set their Week 5 lineups.

          Remember that game times have tremendous influence upon daily planning, so be aware of every day's first scheduled pitch. This week, they are:

          Monday, May 2: 7 p.m. ET (Cubs at Pirates)
          Tuesday, May 3: 6:10 p.m. ET (Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians)
          Wednesday, May 4: 12:35 p.m. ET (San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds and Cubs at Pirates)
          Thursday, May 5: 1:45 p.m. ET (Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals)
          Friday, May 6: 2:20 p.m. ET (Washington Nationals at Cubs)
          Saturday, May 7: 1:05 p.m. ET (Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees)
          Sunday, May 8: 1:07 p.m. ET (Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays)

          Interleague impact

          This week's interleague series:

          Nationals' probable DH(s): Ryan Zimmerman, Clint Robinson or Matt den Dekker. Robinson tied for the team lead in DH starts last year (3, out of 10 games), and that the Royals' rotation is entirely right-handed makes either him or den Dekker an obvious choice. Zimmerman probably should be the DH, though, in which case first base will be freed up for Robinson, granting him the biggest at-bat boost.

          Angels' traditional DH: Albert Pujols. He could merely shift to first base -- he has five starts and 43 innings there already this season -- in place of C.J. Cron, who is at risk of sitting the greater number of games of the two during Week 5. A good guess might be Pujols starting two of the three games in Milwaukee, sitting either the May 3 middle game or the May 4 get-away day game.

          Dodgers' probable DH(s): A committee, perhaps of five different DHs. Dave Roberts' Dodgers are as matchup-conscious as anyone -- they've used 19 different lineups and have started players who had the platoon advantage in 59 percent of their total lineup spots in 22 games -- so this will be an opportunity to squeeze an additional bat into each daily lineup. That means potentially an extra start apiece for Enrique Hernandez, Howie Kendrick, Trayce Thompson, Charlie Culberson and/or A.J. Ellis, with their likelihood of two or more additional starts in that listed order. It's a bit of a boost for a team scheduled for only five games.

          Projected starting pitchers

          The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a projected Bill James Game Score for each day's starter.

          Projected starting pitchers, May 2-8

          P: The starting pitcher's projected Bill James Game Score, accounting for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A 50 is typically deemed a "quality start" by this measure, while a 70 is considered a dominant start.

          Pitching scuttlebutt

          • Tampa Bay Rays: With days off on May 2 and 5, the Rays will almost assuredly stick with a four-man rotation through Week 5.

          • Chicago White Sox: John Danks will remain on his regular turn in the rotation, pitching May 4.

          • Cleveland Indians: The Indians will next need a fifth starter on May 7, which is coincidentally the date that Cody Anderson, who was optioned to Triple-A Columbus on April 27, is eligible for recall. Anderson has been named manager Terry Francona's choice for that start, but if Anderson cannot complete the mechanical adjustments suggested before his demotion, Mike Clevinger or T.J. House could be summoned instead.

          • Minnesota Twins: Alex Meyer will replace Tommy Milone in the Twins' rotation beginning on May 3.

          • Los Angeles Angels: The Angels optioned Matt Shoemaker to Triple-A Salt Lake on May 1. The team is likely to go with a four-man rotation through Week 5 due to the May 5 off day.

          • Oakland Athletics: Jesse Hahn replaced Chris Bassitt (DL, torn UCL) in the Athletics' rotation on April 30, lining him up for a May 6 start during Week 5.

          • Atlanta Braves: An April 30 rainout pushed most of the Braves' rotation back by a day, though Mike Foltynewicz, who was set to replace Bud Norris on May 2, will remain on schedule for that game.

          • Chicago Cubs: An April 30 rainout caused the Cubs to rework their rotation. Most notably, Kyle Hendricks had his next start pushed back to May 5.

          • Cincinnati Reds: Raisel Iglesias (DL, shoulder) was replaced in the Reds' rotation by Tim Adleman on May 1, and Jon Moscot (shoulder) was questionable for, but nevertheless likely to make, his next scheduled start on May 3. Homer Bailey (DL, Tommy John surgery) and Anthony DeSclafani (DL, oblique), meanwhile, both suffered setbacks during their most recent minor league rehabilitation starts, casting the team's big-league rotation for Week 5 somewhat into doubt. The simplest arrangement might have Adleman making another start in Iglesias' place on May 6, but John Lamb (DL, back), who was scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Louisville on May 2, could figure into the Reds' plans.

          • Milwaukee Brewers: Junior Guerra will replace Taylor Jungmann in the Brewers' rotation beginning on May 3.

          • Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray will start on May 2 and Eddie Butler on May 3.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers switched Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood in their rotation so as to avoid having two left-handers pitch during their weekend series at Toronto. Wood will now pitch May 4 at Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field, with Maeda starting May 6 at Toronto's Rogers Centre.

          Tristan's Week 5 pitcher rankings

          Hitting ratings

          The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games vs. right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base-stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.

          Hitting matchup chart, May 2-8

          H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base-stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.

          Hitting advantages

          Here are this week's "volume plays," defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against right- or left-handed starters:

          • Vs. RH: Nationals 7, Reds 7, Padres 7, Indians 6, Astros 6, Athletics 6, Rangers 6, Mets 6, Rockies 6.

          • Vs. LH: Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 3, Twins 3, Phillies 3, Cardinals 3.

          Outside of the Clayton Kershaw game on May 8, the Blue Jays do have a bit of a rebound-potential week, being that six of their most fantasy-relevant offensive players are right-handed, while they're scheduled to face three left-handed starters (two of whom are not named Kershaw). Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion have performed well against lefties, but Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar and Troy Tulowitzki have started unusually slowly against them, making this a prime week for that trio to rebound. Seven home games at homer-friendly Rogers Center should only help the team at large, especially Encarnacion, Martin and Tulowitzki, who have also gotten off to unusually slow starts in their home games.

          It's a good week to pick hitters from bottom-feeding National League Central squads the Reds and Brewers, who conclude their seven-game weeks with four against each other at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The combined numbers of the eight pitchers scheduled to start in that series alone explains it: They're 6-14 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.63 WHIP and are 8-for-27 in quality starts (through April 30), though two have yet to make their first starts of the year. The other six, incidentally, all have FIPs greater than five. Consider this a great opportunity for slow-starting, left-handed Joey Votto to rebound; he and the Reds face seven right-handed starters. In addition, Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom are off to hot starts, are musts, while Adam Duvall could be quite the one-week, shallow-mixed plug-in.

          Hot-starting Brewers like Ryan Braun, Chris Carter and Domingo Santana, meanwhile, should continue to rack up quality numbers, but this could also be a good week to plug in Kirk Nieuwenhuis, a .245/.313/.421 career hitter against righties (plus a 101-point wOBA platoon-split swing favoring that side) entering a week where he'll face at least four right-handed starters, and Jonathan Villar, whose .377 on-base percentage and five stolen bases thus far can come in handy at shortstop.

          The Giants are the other team to visit Great American Ball Park this week -- they open with a three-game series there, May 2-4 -- and they then return home to face the beleaguered Colorado Rockies' rotation for four weekend games. This Giants team has mashed right-handed pitching thus far, with .268/.350/.437 rates (eighth-ranked .342 wOBA) and a fourth-ranked .172 well-hit average, thanks in part to the torrid starts by Denard Span (.314/.419/.471 against righties), Brandon Crawford (.286/.410/.490), Brandon Belt (.304/.406/.482) and Angel Pagan (.306/.358/.388). What's another thing that quartet has in common? Simple: They're all capable of stealing a base (or two), something that might happen considering the strength of their matchups in that department.