Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday

Anthony Davis dropped 25 points and had 15 rebounds against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday and could have a repeat performance Saturday night. Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 26 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Saturday's games

Raptors Rotation: The Toronto Raptors won't have either of their star forwards Scottie Barnes or Pascal Siakam for this evening's matchup with the Mavericks due to respective injuries. Thaddeus Young isn't, well, young, but the 16-year vet has been quite productive as a starting forward in place of his ailing teammates, averaging 14 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, and two steals during his last three games. Similarly, Chris Boucher is shining in a larger role recently, averaging 17.2 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 1.8 combined steals and blocks across the last five games. For those in truly deep leagues and/or fans of Adam Sandler movies, Juancho Hernangomez has nearly averaged a double-double with a strong steal rate the past two games.

Cam's Campaign: If Chris Paul can't go tonight due to a lingering heel injury, the Suns' Cameron Payne (72% available) is in a great spot to produce against the Jazz; he's averaged 18.5 PPG, 6.9 APG, 2.6 3PG, and 1.4 combined steals and blocks in his past eight games, all starts in place of Paul. You can find Payne for $7,300 on DraftKings, as he's a solid start assuming Paul is still on the mend.

Rising Rockets: Houston's Kenyon Martin Jr. (95% available) just produced 21 points with 15 rebounds last night in an upset win over the Hawks. The young forward should play a sizable role again for a depleted frontcourt in tonight's matchup against the Thunder. Top pick Jabari Smith Jr. (61%) has averaged 16.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG with strong shooting and defensive rates during the past four games and is in a good spot against a similarly young Oklahoma City frontcourt.

Saturday Spurs: San Antonio has turned to rookie Jeremy Sochan (97% available) as a key defensive option in recent games and he's responded with seven steals across his last three games, including several swipes off of LeBron James last night. The rookie can help those seeking some streaming support on a light four-game day. Teammate Tre Jones (31%) is due for a spike in assist production given his rich rate of potential assists, making him a solid target for passing props and as a DFS play at just $6,000 against the Lakers in this rubber match.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Breaking down the slate

Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors
5 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Line: Mavericks (-2.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-135), Raptors (+115)
Total: 215.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.4 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (58.9%)

Probable: Maxi Kleber
Ruled Out: Scottie Barnes (knee), Otto Porter Jr. (toe), Pascal Siakam (groin), Fred VanVleet (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Mavericks -2.5. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS on the road this season but the Raptors are dealing with an abundance of injuries. Dallas is the healthier team Saturday afternoon with a strong defense that ranks ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. Additionally, the Mavericks have superstar Luka Doncic, who has averaged 33.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 8.1 APG this season. Dallas should take care of business on the road. -- Eric Moody

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Line: Thunder (-2)
Money line: Thunder (-130), Rockets (+110)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.8 points
BPI Win%: Rockets (50.9%)

Questionable: Alperen Sengun, Eric Gordon
Ruled Out: Jae'Sean Tate
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander is in the midst of a career season averaging 31.0 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 4.9 RPG in 36.3 MPG. He also has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA (32.7%). A suboptimal Rockets defense should allow him to exceed this total. -- Moody

Best bet: Kevin Porter Jr. over 19.5 points. Porter has averaged 16.1 field goals and 19.3 PPG with a usage rate of 27.6% this season. The Rockets are terrible on defense, so expect Porter to be heavily relied upon offensively so they can compete. -- Moody

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Line: Lakers (-3)
Money line: Lakers (-155), Spurs (+130)
Total: 230.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.6 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (58.7%)

Questionable: Josh Richardson, Doug McDermott
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Anthony Davis 37.5 points + rebounds. Davis has averaged 33 PPG and 17 PPG in the games that LeBron James has missed. That positive trend has continued even with James back on the court. Davis scored 25 points and grabbed 15 rebounds Friday night. Facing the Spurs' poor defense, I expect a similar performance on Saturday night. -- Moody

Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona

Line: Suns (-7)
Money line: Suns (-285), Jazz (+228)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.8 points
BPI Win%: Suns (64.1%)

Ruled Out: Landry Shamet, Chris Paul
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Jazz +7.0. The Suns and Jazz are on the second night of a back-to-back and could be fatigued. Lauri Markkanen dropped a career high 38 points in the last meeting between these two teams. As a result, I expect this game to be closer than the spread suggests. Utah is 3-2 ATS on zero days rest. -- Moody

Analytics edge

BPI highest projected totals

1. Phoenix Suns (119.4 points)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (119.1 points)
3. Houston Rockets (117.5 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Toronto Raptors (110 points)
2. Utah Jazz (115.4 points)
3. San Antonio Spurs (116.5 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Phoenix Suns (64.1%)
2. Dallas Mavericks (58.9%)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (58.7%)