Not to brag, but I am currently in first place of our ESPN experts league for our Champions League fantasy game. I am not telling you that to sound like an arrogant braggart, but rather to communicate that it is possible that I understand the tiers to the extent that you should trust I have your best interests at heart.
Now that we are halfway through the Champions League group stage, for those of you who have an 0-3 or 1-2 head-to-head record ... tying is not an option. Matching your opponent just will not do, so we need some differentials!
Tier 1 forward
Lionel Messi is out with a broken arm for at least the next two weeks for Barcelona, so Tier 1 forward is going to look different. There is a real opportunity to catch up to your opponents if you get this spot right. The Paris Saint-Germain forwards -- Neymar and Kylian Mbappe -- have the toughest match of the group yet as they go away to Napoli in a must-win game. They are not great options here due to how low scoring that game should be. Sergio Aguero at home to Shakhtar Donetsk is the highest ceiling option here, as he provides the main outlet for goals in the tenacious Manchester City attack. But our option, friends, is going to be Mohamed Salah, who will face Red Star Belgrade on the road. I will guarantee you at least one goal in this game for Mo with upside for a 30-point outing. It's tough to get a true differential in this tier, but Salah might not be as popular as he should be.
Tier 2 forward
Memphis Depay is going to be our selection here. Edin Dzeko will likely be popular in this group as he is averaging the most fantasy points per game by far of these players, but going to Russia is not easy for most continental European teams and his median projection is much lower than Memphis. The Lyon attacker gets to play at home to one of the weakest sides in the competition in Hoffenheim. Memphis does everything for Lyon when Nabil Fekir doesn't play; he takes penalties, corner kicks, free kicks and leads the team in chances created and shots on goal in Fekir's absence.
Tier 1 midfield
If I was going to convince you to go the popular route on any tier, it would be here with my favorite player of all time, Gareth Bale. The Welsh wonder will need to attack on the road against Viktoria Plzen under a new manager. However, if you are assured your opponent is likely to have Bale, Raheem Sterling as a goal threat and Christian Eriksen as an all-around contributor both make sense. Tottenham need to win and with a decent goal difference to get through their group, so they should be on the front foot for their entire game. Eriksen will take corners and free kicks and is the true engine for the Spurs attack. Sadio Mane has decent goal-scoring odds, if you want yet another option likely to go under the radar.
Tier 2 midfield
The Bayern Munich trio of Thiago, Arjen Robben and James Rodriguez are all in good spots here at home to Greek side AEK Athens. James has the best ceiling of the group as he will generally generate two shots and over three key passes per start. Pizzi is again in a good position to score fantasy points at home to Ajax. He is a pure central midfielder and has more defensive responsibility than James, but will also take penalty kicks that Rodriguez would not. If Son Heung-min starts for Spurs, I am a huge fan of his eccentric game and there is a chance he may even start as a striker, which would make him an elite ceiling play.
Tier 3 midfield
Youri Tielemans leaps out from this group for Monaco at home to Club Brugge. Youri plays the No. 10 attacking midfield spot for Monaco, who are struggling mightily both in their league and in Europe. A win against Brugge keeps them theoretically alive in the tournament and they should be pushing from the off, which would give Tielemans chances for corner kicks and free kicks to generate fantasy points. Andrej Kramaric plays as a striker or center forward for Hoffenheim but has some corner kick responsibilities and Lyon is a nightmare defensive team, as they have allowed 13 goals in 11 league games in Ligue 1.
Tier 1 defender
If your league-mates have not caught on to the fact that Kieran Trippier is really a winger caught in a defender's body, then you may still have room to get the Spurs man in here. He splits corner and free kicks with Christian Eriksen and generates more chances created than any other fullback in the Premier League. He is a fantastic start against PSV at home. Similarly, Joshua Kimmich has both open-play and set-piece duties for Bayern Munich depending on who else is in the starting lineup with him, while his goal-scoring and assist record is that of a central midfielder, not a defender.
Tier 2 defender
Alex Grimaldo continues to be a driving force for Benfica from his left back spot and is well above average in chances created and passes per game, but his high points per game average will likely draw a few people into selecting him at Tier 2 now that we have said goodbye to our friend Alex Telles. The true hipster pick is Yaroslav Rakitskiy, who takes every corner kick for Shakhtar Donetsk despite playing center back. You may think the matchup against Manchester City spells doom, but it did not in their last game as he was able to get off more than 10 crosses. It does not get that much better here at Tier 2, though Pavel Kaderabek and Luke Shaw are both attacking full backs who could turn up with an attacking return.
Goalkeeper
Wojciech Szczesny is the best option here; his team has one of the best defensive records in Europe and they are facing the currently toothless Manchester United. However, if you are locked in to point chasing, Milan Borjan is averaging an absurd 16 fantasy points per game just off of saves and could maybe even score a 1-1 result playing at home against Liverpool this week (though unlikely). I also like Schalke's odds of getting a result at home to Galatasaray, which would make Ralf Fahrmann a good off-the-wall option.