In a previous article, I outlined the "Rule of Seven" shortcut -- a single number you can use in order to try to identify pitchers who might be getting drafted far later (if at all) than perhaps they should be, particularly in points leagues. Now, I'm going to do the same for hitters.
Luckily, there's already a sabermetric shortcut in place that can help estimate the individual impact of hitters: Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27 for short). This statistic, originally created by Bill James (though it has gone through multiple tweaks and modifications over the years) is essentially the "Jango Fett" of baseball. It's a template to see how many runs a team made up entirely of clones of an individual player would score in a game.
While the math involved in calculating RC/27 indeed gets quite "mathy," the basic gist of the equation is that players are rewarded for hits, total bases, walks and steals, while being penalized for strikeouts. Quicker than you can say "Baby Boba, Bounty Hunter," you've got a fairly good estimator of which players have 2018 projections that may or may not correlate to their current draft position. Here's a list of a just a few players who, when compared to the rest of their hitting brethren, seem to be coming out as much better points-league options than their all-format ADP might have you believe:
Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals (ADP: Hitter No. 48, RC/27 rank: Hitter No. 21): Simply put, Murphy doesn't strike out nearly as often as the rest of the top 100 hitters. Combine that with a slugging percentage that should approach .550, and you've got one of the most underrated options at his position. So what if he's likely to miss three weeks (knee), as he seemingly does every season? When he plays, he shines.
Nicholas Castellanos, Detroit Tigers (71, 34): With good odds to again hit 25 HR with 100 RBI, Castellanos was also the only American League player to reach double-digits in triples last season. Just a slight cutback in the number of strikeouts this season could easily catapult him into the top 50 overall in 2018.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (61, 37): I get it. A 58-game sample size is hard to rely upon. Still, with three home runs already this spring to go along with a .349 batting average in his first 44 plate appearances, I'm expecting 25 HR and 150 combined runs and RBI here. If that's the case, how different is he from Alex Bregman, who is ADP's No. 28 hitter?
Corey Dickerson, Pittsburgh Pirates (132, 38): We know he's very likely to get his 60-65 extra-base hits. We also know he's going to get his 140-150 K's. However, he's also getting a park upgrade in his move from Tropicana Field to PNC Park. Even if he gets no more patient at the plate, we're looking at a guy who could easily climb from No. 75 on the Player Rater to around No. 50. If he can lower his K-rate to even 20.0 percent, his value skyrockets.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (95, 39): I'm not one to immediately point to BABIP and scream "unlucky" ... but the shoe fits here. After three consecutive seasons of a .271-.272 batting average, Carpenter dropped to .241 in 2017. His BABIP also plunged to a career-low .274. Coincidence? I don't think so. At worst, he should be getting drafted three rounds sooner than he currently is. At best? RC/27 speaks volumes.
Others to consider: Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins (76, 46); Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers (59, 48); Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants (111, 49); Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners (78, 50); Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays (86, 51).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, here are five hitters who might give you pause based on how inept a band of stormtroopers (with bats) made in their image appear to be:
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals (4, 36): Of course, if you need steals, Turner is well worth first-round consideration. However, in points leagues, stolen bases aren't nearly as valuable. In Turner's case, even if he steals 20-25 more bases in a full season -- he had 46 SB in 98 games last year -- he'll also probably strike out 40-50 more times. That's more than a wash.
Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners (25, 72): Case in point against steals, redux. Gordon could get you 75 SB this season and it wouldn't amount to nearly enough to justify his ADP if he's going to give you a .340 slugging percentage. The next time he drives in even 50 runs on the season will be his first and you'll be fortunate if his OBP is more than 30 points higher than his BA.
Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates (37, 139): The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of his ADP and his super-sad RC/27 ranking. But it's hard not to scratch your head here with Marte. The reality is that, even if Marte gets you 20 HR/40 SB, his career BB/K rate is 0.22. You're practically starting the season in a 100-point hole just by drafting him. You can't do that.
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (38, 80): The production simply isn't going to be there. Posey's power has been down year-over-year since 2014 and while compared to other catchers he's still near the top of the list, overall he's dropping like a stone. The only thing that stands out as a constant bright spot is his near-1.00 BB/K rate over the past three seasons combined.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (50, 78): No question that 2017's first half was far better for Bogaerts than the second (.303/.359/.447 vs. .235/.324/.347). No question that a big part of the blame can be directly attached to his playing through a painful wrist injury. That said, even if we expect "First-Half Xander" for all of 2018, I'd expect fewer extra-base hits and more K's than an aged Miguel Cabrera (58, 69) -- and I'll draft him with that in mind.