Rumours rated: Diego Costa to China? Memphis Depay to leave Man United?

How do you separate transfer fact from fiction? With the January transfer window now open, David Amoyal looks at some of the current rumours and predicts how likely it is that the proposed moves actually happen.

Diego Costa to Tianjin Quanjian in January: 15 percent

After signing Axel Witsel, the Chinese club has set their sights on the Chelsea striker. But unlike his former teammate Oscar, Diego Costa is an integral player in Conte's system, and his departure would have a significant impact on the title race. Tianjin Quanjian's owner, Shu Yuhui, also recently confirmed publicly that Chelsea won't let Costa leave until the summer (when it would be a lot easier for them to find a worthy replacement). As an alternative, the club is expected to make another offer for Fiorentina striker Nikola Kalinic.

Patrice Evra to Crystal Palace: 50 percent

The former Manchester United captain was left out of Juve's squad for the third consecutive game Sunday. While Valencia remains a possible destination for Evra, Crystal Palace is now the team taking the most concrete steps to sign him, a fact recently confirmed by Sam Allardyce. However, Evra would have to accept a pay cut to leave Turin, so it isn't surprising that his agent is asking for a year to be added to his expiring contract in order to make the deal happen.

Sead Kolasinac to Chelsea: 25 percent

The Bosnian left-back was Juve's top target to replace Evra, but Schalke have no intention of selling him in the current window. The current Serie A champions also face competition from both Chelsea and Arsenal to sign Kolasinac on a free transfer once his contract expires in June. Juventus is hoping the defender's close relationship with Miralem Pjanic can overcome the fact that he would join the club as the clear backup to Alex Sandro; at Chelsea, Kolasinac would likely have a better chance to find playing time competing with Marcos Alonso.

Gerard Deulofeu to Milan: 50 percent

Ademola Lookman's arrival in the Everton first-team squad has made it more likely that the former Barcelona winger will join the Rossoneri. According to Gianluca Di Marzio, Ronald Koeman is now open to letting Deulofeu leave, but Milan will have to find a formula for the transfer that works for all involved. Because Barcelona still have a buy-back option on Deulofeu, the most likely solution is a dry loan with no formal option to buy. Milan is banking on the player's desire to join them to defeat Roma in the race to sign him.

Sami Khedira to NYCFC in 2017: 5 percent

After signing Andrea Pirlo, could the MLS club also convince the German midfielder to leave Juventus? It's very unlikely, at least in the short term, when you consider that Khedira is considerably younger than Pirlo and has become an integral part of Massimiliano Allegri's midfield since staying healthy. Khedira has two more seasons left on his contract -- twice the amount of time that was remaining on Pirlo's deal when he moved to the United States.

Manolo Gabbiadini to the Premier League: 55 percent

After being linked to Everton last summer, the Italian striker could be finally moving to England. Gabbiadini is the odd man out at Napoli after the acquisition of Leonardo Pavoletti and Arkadiusz Milik's return from injury. Southampton, West Bromwich and Watford have since joined the race to sign him. While Napoli is asking for at least €20 million and Gabbiadini would prefer a move on a permanent basis, the English clubs would prefer to acquire him on loan with option to buy.

Dimitri Payet to Marseille: 45 percent

Despite David Gold's public statement, West Ham are now open to letting their disgruntled star player leave, as long as it's to a club outside of England. Payet never wanted Marseille to sell him in the first place, and now it's a matter of the French club coming close to meeting the Hammers' demands. In the meantime, the uncertainty surrounding Payet's situation has taken Sofiane Feghouli off the market; the Algerian winger was a target for Roma.

Franck Kessie to Manchester United in January: 15 percent

After an excellent first half of the season, the Ivorian midfielder continues to shine at the African Nations Cup. Kessie has been linked to all the top Premier League clubs in recent weeks -- most recently to Manchester United, the team he grew up supporting. But after Atalanta cashed in on Roberto Gagliardini and Mattia Caldara in this window, they will almost certainly keep Kessie until the end of the season in hopes that his value continues to climb.

Jose Sosa to Fenerbahce: 30 percent

The 31-year-old midfielder could be returning to the Turkish Super Lig after just half a season at Milan. According to Gianluca Di Marzio, Fenerbahce are willing to match the price the Italian club paid to acquire him from Besiktas, and while Sosa mentioned that concern for the safety of his family was the main reason he wanted to leave Turkey last summer, he would consider a substantial offer. He hasn't found much playing time with manager Vincenzo Montella. Sosa's agent is expected to meet with Fenerbahce later this week in Italy.

Memphis Depay to Lyon: 40 percent

The French club was originally looking for a short-term replacement for Rachid Ghezzal, who is at the African Nations Cup. They now have the opportunity to sign the Dutch winger for a reasonable transfer fee. The French press is reporting that Lyon are coming closer to meeting Manchester United's asking price of €17 million for Depay and are optimistic they can get a deal done, given that the player is open to joining them.