Hyderabad FC vs ATK Mohun Bagan. Manolo Marquez vs Juan Ferrando. Bart Ogbeche vs Roy Krishna. Second in the league vs third. This should be an absolute belter. Ahead of the first leg of their semifinal tie, we look at the key differences between the sides and where we believe the game will be decided:
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What do the numbers say?
Over the course of the season, Hyderabad have been the more consistent side, scoring more goals (43 v 37), conceding less (23 v 26), and well, winning more points (38 v 37). A major factor in this is the stability that Hyderabad have had (Manolo Marquez is in his second year at the club) and the instability at Bagan (going from [Antonio] Habas-ball to Juan Ferrando's expansive style is no mean feat). The surface-level numbers do indicate that both teams are pretty evenly matched, but it's when you drill down that a clear difference begins to appear.
Offensively, for instance, Hyderabad have scored 10 goals from set-plays, from an xG of 8.65 (the second highest in the league), while Bagan have scored a mere 4 (from the league's second lowest xG of 4.79 - which considering their aerial threat is rather poor). In total, Hyderabad scored 43 goals from just 29.4 xG while Bagan scored just 37 from 32.2 xG.
Bagan's wastefulness is sharply highlighted by another stat - Bagan created 35 big chances, and missed 30 (the highest in the league, by a margin). Hyderabad created 23 and missed (just) 12 (the lowest). Hyderabad's efficiency also shines through here - they have 5.3 shots on target per match as compared to Bagan's 4.4.
While both teams focus on creation through wingplay, Bagan's superior pressing (they've won back possession in the final third 102 times) clearly helped amp up the number of big chances. Hyderabad don't press high at all, in relative comparison (78).
A simple conclusion we could draw from these numbers, borne out by the eye test, is that while Bagan may play more expansive football (310.7 accurate passes per match vs 246.6), Hyderabad are simply more efficient at doing the most important thing of all - scoring goals.
The numbers, though, mean only so much. Especially in knockout football. So keeping these stats (and what they tell us about the teams) in mind, let's look at the key battles that we feel will decide the match.
But first, the predicted XIs as we see it:
ATK Mohun Bagan (4-2-3-1): Amrinder Singh (GK); Pritam Kotal, Sandesh Jhingan, Tiri, Subashish Bose; Carl McHugh, Lenny Rodrigues; Manvir Singh, Joni Kauko, Liston Colaco; Roy Krishna
Hyderabad FC (4-2-3-1): Laxmikant Kattimani (GK); Ashish Rai, Chinglensana Singh, Juanan, Akash Mishra; Joao Victor, Souvik Chakrabarty; Nikhil Poojary, Joel Chianese, Aniket Jadhav; Bartholomew Ogbeche
An important note here - we do not yet know how many of Hyderabad's COVID-19 affected players, key components of the Marquez machine, will be fit for this match (Ogbeche, for instance) so this is assuming the short break ahead of the playoffs has helped the squad recover. The key battle areas would remain the same because Marquez retains a remarkable uniformity of structure, but say a Javier Siviero playing instead of Ogbeche would severely change the associated threat level.
Key battle - the flanks
Both Hyderabad and Bagan play their best football down the wings, but in drastically different ways. Where Bagan ask Liston Colaco and Manvir Singh to hug the touchline, run at defenders, and then cut inside, Their fullbacks tend to take more conversative covering positions. Hyderabad focus on making their wingers run the inside channels allowing their full backs Akash Mishra and Ashish Rai to push forward on the overlap.
This brings with it an interesting conundrum. Does Ferrando ask Colaco and Manvir to track back more than usual, and have conservative starting positions or does Marquez ask Mishra and Rai to cut down on the overlapping to keep track of their wingers?
Both sets of wingers are hard-working and will run up-and-down all day, but Bagan's carry considerably greater goal threat - Liston and Manvir have 8 and 6 goals resp., the most on their team; Hyderabad's four wingers have a combined 5. The fear factor they bring would also keep Mishra and Rai pegged back, taking out a key offensive weapon for Marquez.
(Just how key an offensive weapon? Mishra and Rai rank first and third in most successful-dribbles-per-90, joint second in assists, and fourth and first in big chances created within their team)
It'll be a who-blinks-first battle that could well decide the course of the tie.
Apart from this fundamental area, there are three key one-on-one battles we'd like to focus on:
Individual battle I - Kauko v Souvik
Hugo Boumous may be the league's most explosive player on his day, but form and fitness has dictated that Joni Kauko has stepped up to become Bagan's chief central playmaker. He has the most assists and the most big chances created (both 6), and is likely to be trusted in the role again. Atleast from the start. The task of stopping him will fall to one of the more underrated footballers in the league, Souvik Chakrabarty. Joao Victor is the more creative of Hyderabad's midfield duo, Souvik the destroyer. Can he, though, stop the physical force that is Kauko?
Individual battle II - Krishna v Sana
Roy Krishna hasn't had the best of seasons. He has scored only 5 goals (and got 4 assists) from 14 matches, as fitness and form have come and again. He provided a reminder of what he's capable of in the league stage's second last match, and he'll want to prove he remains the division's ultimate big game player. Expect him to try and isolate Chinglensana Singh (Sana), who is just that little bit weaker in the challenge as compared to CB partner Juanan Gonzalez. It'll be a test of just how far Sana - who has improved upon what was already a great season last time around - has come.
Individual battle III - Ogbeche v Jhingan
To paraphrase slightly (completely butcher, more like) Gary Linekar, an ISL game is simple - 22 men run around trying to kick a ball, somewhere in the middle Bart Ogbeche scores. The man has 17 goals in 17 games and has outperformed his xG (8.3!) by a quite ridiculous margin. He's one of the league's GOATs and has been simply unstoppable. He will look to target Jhingan, who's propensity to dive into challenges can be a big weakness. Jhingan and CB partner Tiri will need to be at their considerable best to stop the league's runaway top scorer.