Grand Theft Auto VI is one of 2025's most anticipated video games, and one market research group believes it's primed to set new sales records. DFC Intelligence, the oldest market analyst firm covering the video games industry, believes Rockstar's latest game will sell tens of millions of copies in its first 12 months, with total sales reaching over $3 billion.
GTA 6 will enter a market that resembles the conditions when Rockstar launched GTA V in 2013. For example, Sony and Xbox have sold roughly the same number of PS5 and Xbox Series X|S units -- 66 million and 28 million, respectively -- as they had PS4, PS3, Xbox 360, and Xbox One consoles at the time GTA V launched. However, DFC believes GTA V's success across the last decade will lead to stronger initial sales when Rockstar finally releases GTA VI.
"GTA V has 11 years of sales history and revenues actually increased in Years 7, 8, and 9, reaching around $1 billion in both Years 8 and 9," DFC founder David Cole told GLHF. "Because of this long-term success, we think that GTA VI will have a faster start out of the gate. Sales should pass $1 billion before it is released via pre-orders."
DFC believes GTA VI will rack up a further $2.2 billion in sales during its first year, ending in November 2026.
Market research firm Circana recently released a set of sales data that shows the extent of GTA V's long-term success. Where Rockstar's previous games quickly slid out of annual top-selling charts after launch, GTA V remained in the top 10 for four years following its initial release. The $1 billion Cole mentioned in GTA V's eighth and ninth years corresponds with a sizable resurgence in sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, before sales dropped again in 2023.
Rockstar also released GTA Online alongside GTA V, a live-service Grand Theft Auto game that, despite a rough launch with bugs and missing features, attracted hundreds of thousands of people -- and, until 2022, required a copy of GTA V to play.
In addition to increased interest from GTA Online, DFC believes that Rockstar, as it did with GTA V, will release updated versions of GTA VI when Sony and Microsoft launch new next generation consoles. The firm forecasts an increase in sales when that happens, possibly in the game's third or fourth year, and by the end of its fifth year, DFC predicts 100 million copies of GTA VI sold. By comparison, Rockstar sold 200 million copies of GTA V in 11 years.
Rockstar plans to launch GTA VI sometime in fall 2025 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. A lack of any updates since December 2023 prompted rumors of a delay in mid-2024, though some Rockstar developers told Bloomberg's Jason Schreier that they had not heard of a delay.