Who wants to go 1-1/4 miles?
Handicappers obsess over that question, sometimes to their detriment, every first Saturday in May.
While pedigree is an important piece of the Derby puzzle, it probably shouldn't come at the expense of the more reliable and basic handicapping tenets of speed, pace, and class.
The last two Kentucky Derby winners, California Chrome and American Pharoah, were super-logical betting favorites strictly off the cold dope. While they, like the vast majority of Thoroughbreds, had at least one stamina influence buried deep in their bloodlines that pedigree fans could reference, the fact remains that California Chrome's sire never won a race longer than 5-1/2 furlongs and was 0 for 9 in route races. Similarly, American Pharoah's dam was an unplaced half-sister to two graded stakes-winning sprinters by the speedy influence Yankee Gentleman. Nothing about their pedigrees screamed "Derby winner," but they were simply the best horses.
Big Brown (by Boundary), Smarty Jones (by Elusive Quality out of a Smile mare) and Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor) immediately come to mind as recent Derby winners that had serious stamina issues to address on paper.
Breeding racehorses is one-part science, one-part art, and most-parts luck. "Breed the best to the best and HOPE for the best" is the industry's oft-repeated mantra. Breeders with Derby dreams mate stamina influences and pray the resulting foal will stay.
So it is with handicapping and analyzing pedigrees. In many ways, it is a crap shoot to deduce which lightly raced 3-year-old will handle the demanding Derby distance, especially factoring in a 20-horse scrum and a paddock circus that could unnerve even the most professional Thoroughbred.
Still, a diligent pedigree analysis can prove a useful tool in enhancing one's already-positive opinion of a Derby contender, or in poking a hole in a potential underlay. The single-race Derby exotics can pay boxcars. Horses with greater stamina, some at generous odds, can clunk up and grab the "underneath" spot from exhausted rivals, at the very least.
One of the main storylines of this year's Derby revolves around the young stallion Uncle Mo. An undefeated 2-year-old champion with brilliant early speed is supposed to be an exciting stud prospect, but Uncle Mo's first crop of 2-year-olds in 2015 defied even the loftiest expectations.
Uncle Mo went into his 3-year-old season the heavy winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but injury coupled with a poor performance in the nine-furlong Wood Memorial derailed his hopes. He never won a race past 1-1/16 miles and some pedigree analysts believe his progeny will be precocious at 2 and talented up to middle distances on dirt as they mature.
Uncle Mo has three Derby hopefuls in Nyquist, himself an undefeated Eclipse Award winner; Wood Memorial winner Outwork; and the trouble-prone Mo Tom.
Nyqist and Outwork have won major prep races at nine furlongs, perhaps a good sign for their Derby chances. Yet, there is still that nagging feeling that Uncle Mo's progeny might find 10 furlongs a bridge too far to cross.
Although I am dubious of the Uncle Mos at longer distances, of the three, I prefer Outwork's overall pedigree as his dam (by Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker) is a half-brother to multiple Grade 2 route winner Cairo Prince. Also, Outwork is a hulking physical specimen and seems built to handle the rigors of this distance.
Conversely, the most notable names in Nyquist's female family were sprinters like Seeking the Sky and Seeking Regina. His nine-furlong win in the Florida Derby came in a virtual match race where the "other" horse, Mohaymen, didn't show up. Plus, he looked a bit fatigued when hopping back to his left lead in the stretch. Perhaps he's vulnerable at 1-1/4 miles, but it could certainly be argued that he's outrun his pedigree thus far.
A cursory pedigree analysis combining stamina with class influences gives us several names of 2016 Kentucky Derby contenders with the bloodlines to stay 1-1/4 miles.
Group 1 (Strong Stamina)
Lani
Shagaf
Oscar Nominated
Danzing Candy
Creator
It wasn't surprising that Lani had no trouble with the 1 3/16 miles of the UAE Derby as his female family is chock-full of stamina influences. His dam, Heavenly Romance (by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Sunday Silence), grabbed the prestigious Tenno Sho at 1-1/4 miles on turf in Japan. One of Lani's half-sisters, Amour Briller, took the Nagoya Gold Cup at 12-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Whether Lani is good enough to beat America's best is another story, but he has the pedigree to succeed at the distance.
Shagaf, by Preakness winner Bernardini, is out of a route stakes-winning half-sister to Breeders' Cup Marathon winner (14 furlongs at Churchill Downs) Eldaafer. The second dam, Habibi, was a multiple Grade 1 winner by dual classic winner Tabasco Cat. This is the family of Kentucky Oaks winner Gal in a Ruckus.
Oscar Nominated shouldn't have a problem with the distance as a son of the long-winded Kitten's Joy and stakes-winning router Devine Actress from the family of stout Dramatic Gold, but the dirt surface looks like a troublesome stumbling block. The reformed claimer is bred for success on turf and synthetic surfaces, has never started on dirt, and seems a notch or three below the top Derby contenders.
Danzing Candy's sire, Twirling Candy, boasted a nice blend of speed and stamina over multiple surfaces. A graded winner at nine furlongs, he just missed by a head in the Pacific Classic at 1-1/4 miles. The quick Danzing Candy receives an additional stamina boost from his female family. The dam is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now.
Creator, a late-running winner of the Arkansas Derby, is one of three in the field by all-world stallion Tapit (along with Lani and Mohaymen). His dam won at 12 furlongs on dirt in her native Peru. Creator acts like he wants more distance. He should be rallying in the stretch once again.
Group 2 (Stamina)
Brody's Cause
Suddenbreakingnews
Gun Runner
Trojan Nation
Whitmore
Blue Grass winner Brody's Cause is a half-brother to stakes-placed router Midnight Sweetie by Giant's Causeway, perennially among the leading sires. The dam placed in the nine-furlong Woodbine Oaks on dirt and is a half-sister to an 11-furlong stakes winner on turf. The second dam finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Late-kicking Suddenbreakingnews is by the classy long-distance runner Mineshaft out of a half-sister to two-turn graded stakes winners Composure and Ready Set. The second dam was a graded stakes winner at 11 furlongs on turf. There is nothing but stamina in this family, and Suddenbreakingnews seems like an ideal candidate to last the distance.
Gun Runner's sire, Candy Ride, won the Grade 1, 10-furlong Pacific Classic in 2003 with a whopping 123 Beyer Speed Figure. The dam, a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Classic champion Saint Liam, earned a 103 Beyer when succeeding in the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Stakes at 1-1/16 miles. She also won the Rare Treat Stakes at nine furlongs by nine lengths. Gun Runner enters the Derby on a roll after a very successful winter in New Orleans. His pedigree is all about stamina.
Although it's more likely the mud was what moved maiden Trojan Nation way up in the Wood Memorial, it's possible the additional distance played a part as well. His parents both won big races around two turns. His dad, Street Cry, took home the Dubai World Cup, while Storm Song won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Even with this very solid pedigree, he'll have to up his game in the Derby.
Although Whitmore has flattened out in the late stages of his route races, it might be too early to write him off at longer distances. His sire, Pleasantly Perfect, excelled at 1-1/4 miles.
Perhaps the above horses can be upgraded slightly based on their expected affinity for the Derby distance. Using bloodlines as a tool, in conjunction with the other popular handicapping theories of speed, pace, class, and trip might allow you to smoke out a nice-priced horse in one of the single-race exotic positions.
Happy handicapping and good luck!