With the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles set to kick off their annual Battle of the Beltways, it's high time to take a look back at Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
As two of the game's brightest stars, their paths have always been intertwined. In 2009, they were roommates on Team USA's 18-and-under Pan Am squad. In 2010, they were both drafted at the top of the first round, just two picks apart. In 2012, they both debuted to rave reviews. Since then, they've played in virtually the exact same number of games. They've each dealt with their fair share of injuries. They've each been thrown at, each charged the mound, each been suspended. They've each led their teams to regular playoff appearances but have failed to reach the World Series.
Even though they're only in their mid-20s, both are in their seventh year in the bigs. Seven years spent fueling the debate over who is baseball's best young player (not named Mike Trout), who is the face of the Mid-Atlantic and, of course, who will be free agency's biggest jackpot.
Like any other debate -- whether it's Grandma vs. Granny, Matilda vs. Annie or Laurel vs. Yanny -- Bryce vs. Manny is fluid. It's an ever-evolving discussion, filled with seasonal ebbs and flows that muddy the waters.
As these two stars prepare to engage in head-to-head combat once again, we delve deep inside their mano a mano, seven-year series to see who has the upper hand.
YEAR 1: 2012
Who won the battle: Technically, because the Nationals and Orioles played all six of their head-to-head contests prior to Machado's Aug. 9 call-up, there was no battle between Harper and Machado. But because Manny had the better debut (2-for-4 with a triple), he gets the edge here.
Who won the war: Harper, by virtue of the fact that he was named National League Rookie of the Year. (Machado received zero ROY votes.)
Who's winning the WAR: According to Baseball-Reference.com, Harper accounted for 5.2 WAR in his rookie season, while Machado posted a 1.6 WAR. If you're a FanGraphs fan, the WAR score was 4.4 to 1.2 in favor of Bryce. Advantage Harper.
YEAR 2: 2013
Who won the battle: Once again, there was no battle, as Harper hurt his knee on May 26, the day before the Nats and O's hooked up for a four-game, home-and-home set that kicked off on Memorial Day. In that series, Machado was a beast, going 7-for-16 and helping Baltimore take three of four. Unanimous decision in Manny's favor.
Who won the war: Harper's injury resulted in the first of three career trips to the disabled list and limited him to 118 contests. He still managed to make the All-Star Game, in which he became the youngest player ever to advance to the Home Run Derby finals. But Machado made the Midsummer Classic, too. What's more, the O's third baseman led the AL in doubles (51), won his first Gold Glove (and the Platinum Glove) and finished ninth in the MVP voting. Manny gets the W.
Who's winning the WAR: After 2013, Baseball-Reference.com had Harper down for a cumulative 8.9 WAR, while Machado was at 8.3. Over at FanGraphs, Harper's career WAR through two seasons was 8.5, with Machado at 6.2. Still advantage Harper, but the gap has narrowed.
YEAR 3: 2014
Who won the battle: Believe it or not, the first official battle of the Seven Years War took place on 7/7. In that July 7 clash, Machado posted the only five-hit game of his career, going 5-for-6 with a homer, while Harper went hitless. The theme stuck, as Manny collected eight knocks over the course of three games (it was supposed to a four-game series, but one was rained out) and Harper went oh-fer. Bird takes battle.
Who won the war: It was a war of attrition this time around. Harper tore thumb ligaments in April and played in a career-low 100 games. Machado, who missed all of April while recovering from a September 2013 injury to his left knee, blew out the right knee in August and appeared in just 82 contests. Neither player was an All-Star, the only time that has happened since the two of them debuted. To quote former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain: "In war ... there are no winners, but all are losers."
Who's winning the WAR: Baseball-Reference.com gave Machado the edge in career WAR by a score of 10.6 to 10. FanGraphs had Harper leading 10.5 to 8.1. Advantage Harper, but just barely.
YEAR 4: 2015
Who won the battle: Nobody, or so it would seem based on the combined .205 average Harper and Machado posted during a pair of three-game sets. But the second series, a September tilt in Washington, featured a Machado homer that resulted in Nats closer Jonathan Papelbon beaning the O's slugger. That resulted in Harper publicly questioning his teammate's tactics ("It's pretty tired ... I'll probably get drilled tomorrow"), which played a key role in Papelbon choking Harper in the dugout four days later. To recap, one guy went yard, which led to the other guy getting strangled. At the risk of sounding callous, chalk one up for Manny.
Who won the war: No matter how good Machado's season was (he finished fourth in the MVP voting), Harper's was better. In fact, Harper's season was better than most seasons ever: The former No. 1 pick hit .330 with 42 homers, led the majors with a 1.109 OPS, and became the youngest unanimous MVP in baseball history. Bryce beats.
Who's winning the WAR: Per Baseball-Reference.com, Harper was up 20.6 to 17.7 following the 2015 season. According to FanGraphs, he had 19.8 WAR compared to Machado's 14.7. Advantage Harper, and comfortably so.
YEAR 5: 2016
Who won the battle: During a four-game home-and-home in August, both players collected six hits. But Machado's six-pack included a homer and two extra-base knocks, while Harper had all singles. Add in the fact that Baltimore won three of four, and Manny gets the nod here.
Who won the war: Maybe Harper was physically damaged. Maybe, after that infamous Cubs series in which he walked 617 times (give or take), he was psychologically damaged. Maybe both. Regardless, the 2015 MVP had one of the most disappointing follow-up seasons ever, as his average dipped nearly 100 points (.243) and his OPS plummeted by almost 300 (.814). Meanwhile, Machado set career highs in all three Triple Crown categories and posted his second straight top-five finish in the MVP balloting. Manny in a walk.
Who's winning the WAR: FanGraphs still favors Harper (22.8 to 20.9), but Baseball-Reference.com begs to differ, giving Machado the edge (24.6 to 22.1). Call it dead even.
YEAR 6: 2017
Who won the battle: In head-to-head combat, Harper hit .438 with a homer and three walks. Machado hit .143 with ... a wrist injury that caused him to miss one of the games. For the first time in their head-to-head history, Bryce bags the battle.
Who won the war: It was a tale of two halves. Harper looked MVP-ish until an August knee injury that all but ended his season. Machado looked LVP-ish until the All-Star break, then went on a tear. But when the smoke cleared, Harper -- who was dominant enough to receive MVP votes despite missing six weeks down the stretch -- came out on top.
Who's winning the WAR: FanGraphs has Bryce ahead by four-plus wins (27.7 to 23.4), while Baseball-Reference.com has Manny leading by just more than one win (28.0 to 26.8). Advantage Harper.
YEAR 7: 2018
Who won the battle: TBD
Who won the war: Still plenty of baseball left, but early returns suggest it's a Manny year. Although his defense has suffered with the much-publicized move to shortstop (minus-8 runs saved), he has been locked in at the plate: Through the first couple of months of the season, Machado has a .324/.395/.609 slash line and looks like a legit Triple Crown contender. As for Harper, after a scorching start, he has come back to earth. Despite leading the NL in homers (16), he's hitting .195 with a .753 OPS since April 17.
Who's winning the WAR: If we average out their career fWAR and bWAR numbers, it's essentially a dead heat, with both guys coming in right around 28. As such, front offices looking to spend will have a hard time figuring out which direction to throw their money in. "There are so many tremendous qualities about both of these guys," said one exec when asked which player he'd rather sign. "I would probably say Machado by the thinnest of margins. The tipping point is his ability to play shortstop and third base." One thing is for sure: Come November, regardless of who's winning the WAR, there's bound to be a different kind of war involving Machado and Harper -- a bidding war.