As it turns out, Bryce Harper isn't going anywhere. Question is: Where do the Washington Nationals go from here?
That the Harpermobile was parked anywhere remotely close to the rumor mill speaks volumes about the surreal season the Nats are having. In the final year of Harper's contract, they were expected to walk away (not run away, mind you) with their third straight division title and fifth in seven years. But things haven't gone according to plan.
Injuries have crushed them. Their players have spent more time on the disabled list than those on all but two MLB clubs. The Phillies and Braves have been better than expected earlier than expected, which has made for tougher head-to-head sledding. The rotation, which has long been the bedrock of Washington's success and was stout over the first couple months of the season, has been a mess the past couple months. And then there's Harper.
A prime-time player many thought would thrive in one of the most anticipated walk years in baseball history, the former MVP has weathered a head-scratching season. On the plus side, he has 25 homers, leads the National League in walks, and put on a show in front of the hometown fans with an epic Home Run Derby comeback during All-Star Week in the nation's capital. In the minus column, he's whiffing a ton (117 strikeouts, tied for third most in the NL), is hitting just .220, and hasn't looked great in right field (minus-10 runs saved).
The Nationals limped out of the trade deadline a game under .500, among the biggest disappointments of the 2018 season. As the clock struck 4 p.m. ET on July 31, they were in third place in the NL East, 5½ games behind Atlanta. According to the Elias Sports Bureau research, since the current six-division format began in 1995, just five teams have come back to win a pennant after trailing by at least five games on Aug. 1 (the 1995 Mariners, '02 A's, '06 Twins, '15 Blue Jays and '15 Rangers). The Nats were also 5½ games behind Arizona for the second wild card. Even more alarming are the five teams standing between them and the Diamondbacks for that spot. But perhaps most sobering: Entering play on deadline day, the Nationals had the fifth-worst record in the NL and were closer to the bottom of the pack than the top.
An epic 25-4 rout later that night provided some much-needed relief from the tension and turmoil on the team, though it still only got the Nats back to .500 -- and they were playing a brutal Mets club, too. All of which helps explain why the prospect of trading Bryce Harper -- an absolutely unthinkable idea just weeks ago -- had crept into the conversation.
Had Washington decided to unload Harper, it wouldn't have necessarily signaled the end of his time in D.C. Much like Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, who was traded to the Cubs at the 2016 deadline only to re-sign with New York as a free agent a few months later, Harper could have netted the Nats some help in the form of prospects and/or big league-ready talent, then come back into the fold this offseason. That's assuming he and agent Scott Boras didn't take things too personally.
Judging by the sound of things, it doesn't sound as if Harper was offended in the slightest.
"Whenever you hear your name or see your name on stuff you always wonder, but that's business side of the game," Harper said Tuesday, shortly before the bewitching deadline hour. "Other teams are trying to get better. It's something that came up. Rizzo reassured me earlier yesterday that I wasn't going anywhere, so I was very happy about that, and happy that I'm still inside this clubhouse."
At this point, it's hard to tell just how serious the Nationals were about entertaining offers for Harper. Given Washington's long-standing relationship with the face of the franchise, and given the possibility of signing him in free agency this winter, it's entirely possible that the trade whispers were just posturing. Maybe it was an attempt to motivate a team that, to this point, has appeared less than motivated. Or maybe Rizzo was just trying get inside the heads of opposing execs to muddy the buy/sell waters. In either case, it's conceivable that the Nats might have floated the posturing idea to Harper's camp beforehand so as to avoid any kind of misunderstanding or hard feelings. Alternatively, maybe the Nats wanted to get a read on the Harperometer ahead of the offseason, a way to gauge the level of interest that other teams had in him. Then again, maybe it is simply a case of Rizzo and the front office doing their jobs. Maybe if they had been blown away by an offer, Harper would've actually been dealt.
"I think we would not be doing our job if we didn't explore all options to improve the club, with Bryce Harper and everyone else," Rizzo said Tuesday afternoon, about an hour after the trade deadline had passed. "We had discussions with many, many players on the roster, Bryce was one of them. If we're not doing that -- he understands his game is good or better than all of us -- he would think we're not doing our job if we didn't address everything to try and make this organization better."
Whatever the case, the Nationals ultimately (and not suprisingly) opted to hold on to Harper. Just like they opted to hold on to Herrera, Ryan Madson and Shawn Kelley, a trio of free-agent-to-be relievers who could've been useful on the trade market. Just like they opted to hold on to second baseman Daniel Murphy, starter Gio Gonzalez, and corner infielders Matt Adams and Mark Reynolds, all of whom have contracts that expire at the end of the season, and all of whom would've had rental value for a playoff-hopeful squad. With the exception of reliever Brandon Kintzler, whom they shipped to the Cubs in a last-minute deal that was more about bullpen construction than waving any kind of white flag, they opted to hold on to everyone. They did so because, no matter what their record says after 105 games, they still think they have what it takes to win a third straight NL East pennant.
"We believe in the players that we have," Rizzo said. "We've got players coming off of the disabled list that are starting to improve offensively and defensively. Our pitching is coming together. Our bullpen is strong, as good as anybody in the league. We're worried about how we play, not other teams in our division or the National League. Because if we play like we can play, we don't have to worry about anybody."
No matter how disappointing the first two-thirds of the season has been for the Nationals, it's hard to blame them for not selling at the deadline. After all, this isn't your average, run-of-the mill .500 club. They've got Max Scherzer, the two-time defending Cy Young winner. They've got Stephen Strasburg, who can be as dominant as any pitcher in the game when he's healthy. They've got a former MVP in Harper. They've got a former Rookie of the Year runner-up in shortstop Trea Turner, and a current ROY contender in 19-year-old phenom Juan Soto. They've got All-Star closer Sean Doolittle, and two key offensive pieces (Murphy and Adam Eaton) who were banged up but appear to be rounding into form. In other words, it's an impressive collection of players that's hard to give up on, especially in a season many viewed as a last hurrah for Washington's current core. And that's exactly what it would have felt like had the Nats gone into sell mode -- giving up.
Similarly, it's hard to blame Washington for not buying at the deadline, either. With Strasburg on the disabled list, the rotation is on shaky ground. Doolittle's lingering foot injury isn't helping a bullpen taxed heavily during the first half of the season. So far, the post-break version of Harper doesn't look all that different from the pre-break version. And rookie skipper Davey Martinez, who has had his hands full navigating all the bumps in the road, now must deal with the fallout from some offensive Turner tweets resurfacing over the weekend. But if things start to go Washington's way down the stretch -- and it sure seems the team is due for some positive regression on multiple fronts -- the Nats could turn the NL East into quite the entertaining three-way race.
Said Harper: "We've played some of the worst baseball we can and we're only 5½ games back. We're getting our whole team back, and I think Doolittle back here soon, Strasburg as well. Just gotta keep playing our baseball and if we click, it's going to be a lot of fun."
As for what happens after this season, despite what has been, to date, a down year for Harper, there's sure to be no shortage of suitors for his services this winter. No matter what kind of free-agent offer the Nationals can put on the table, they must be ready for the possibility of life without him. If the past few days are any indication, they're prepared.