The NBA season begins Oct. 25! We've got Insider forecasts, Ultimate Standings from The Mag, and keys for each team from our group of TrueHoop podcasters. Check out our analysis, projections and more!
Win Total Projections
RPM: 54.1 | Las Vegas: 57 | ESPN Forecast: 57-25
REST LEBRON, FEATURE LOVE, SEE YOU IN JUNE
Tom Haberstroh: Are you OK with Kevin Love averaging 14 points per game -- he has scored just over 16 per game in Cleveland after averaging 26 in his last season in Minnesota -- or do you think the Cavs will feature him more? Dave McMenamin: I've spoken to people within the team who feel it's the best course of action if LeBron plays 60 games. That planned rest could be where you feature Love more. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: My question is, what is Cleveland's motivation? Let's say LeBron takes off half the season and the Cavs are the eighth seed. Are you picking any other team to come out of the Eastern Conference? DM: Nope. Central Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 49.2 | Las Vegas: 52 | ESPN Forecast: 51-31
AL HORFORD'S NICE, BUT C'S STILL NEED A STAR
Ohm Youngmisuk: Bottom line: Horford is not the guy who's going to get the Celtics past the Cavs. I love his passing and his perimeter shooting, but I was disturbed by his playoff production for the Hawks. He grabbed 14 rebounds against the Cavs. Not in a game -- in the series! He's a great signing, but he's not going to win Boston 10 more games. Amin Elhassan: And if Isaiah Thomas is your best player, you're good enough to win 48 games in the East -- but you are not a champion. Am I wrong to think of Thomas as the most readily disposable All-Star in the league? OY: No. He's going to get traded in the next couple of years. Atlantic Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 48.3 | Las Vegas: 50.5 | ESPN Forecast: 51-31
DEROZAN CAN'T SHOOT HIS WAY OUT OF THIS
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Let's just say it: Toronto likely got worse. With Bismack Biyombo's departure, the Raptors lose a guy who was big for them in the playoffs last season. He averaged 8.8/13.3 with almost two blocks per 36 minutes. Amin Elhassan: Can I be frank about Biyombo? He played over his head a little bit in the playoffs. Ohm Youngmisuk: As long as they rely on DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, they need an energy guy. Biyombo was that guy for them. The dude snagged 26 rebounds in Game 3 against the Cavs! Dwight Howard and Hakeem Olajuwon -- those are the only other guys to do that in the playoffs since 1984. It's a big loss. Atlantic Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 46.6 | Las Vegas: 44.5 | ESPN Forecast: 45-37
TO SAVE ANDRE DRUMMOND, GET A POINT GUARD
Tom Haberstroh: A big key for the Pistons going forward is Drummond improving his free throw shooting. Last season he shot 35.5 percent. If he shoots 50 percent, that adds two wins to the Pistons' bottom line. Kevin Pelton: Yeah, the average relationship is 2.7 wins for 1.0 point per game. Amin Elhassan: If they have any hope of maximizing the talent of Drummond and the rest of this roster, Reggie Jackson can't be the point guard of the future. They've got to get a real one. Jackson is good enough -- maybe -- for a first-round playoff win, but no further. He's not Mr. Right. He's Mr. Right Now. Central Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 39.1 | Las Vegas: 45.5 | ESPN Forecast: 45-37
INDY WANTS TO RUN; INDY IS NOT BUILT TO RUN
Tom Haberstroh: The Pacers have a huge identity crisis. They want to play fast, but then they sign Al Jefferson. Amin Elhassan: And if they want to go up-tempo, that's fine, but then don't hire Nate McMillan, who doesn't coach that way even if he says he's going to. My question is: Should Larry Bird be worried about his job, or is he safe because he's in Indiana and the organization will never admit that he's bad for business? Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Probably the latter. Central Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 39.7 | Las Vegas: 43.5 | ESPN Forecast: 44-38
IS DWIGHT HOWARD OLD? OR IS HE TOO OLD?
Kevin Pelton: I'm curious how Al Horford's departure will affect Paul Millsap. He won't be defended by the centers that teams had to cross-match because they couldn't deal with the Horford pick-and-pop. That gave Millsap the quickness advantage. Also, defensively, Atlanta took advantage of its mobile bigs with traps and perimeter switches. That's not really Howard anymore. Tom Haberstroh: What is Dwight now? What does he have left? That, to me, is the question. Southeast Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 41.6 | Las Vegas: 41.5 | ESPN Forecast: 43-39
ROLE PLAYERS ARE FINE -- STEPH ... WOULD BE BETTER
Brian Windhorst: Somehow the Hornets stay in the hunt every season without a star. And they will have to do that again after bringing in Roy Hibbert and Marco Belinelli. David Thorpe: Belinelli was awful on the Kings in 2015-16. Tom Haberstroh: Bigger question, guys: Can they bring Steph home in 2017? DT: It's on their mind. I think people around Steph are talking about a one-year experiment thing. I'm hearing Charlotte as a potential destination. Southeast Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 41.5 | Las Vegas: 43 | ESPN Forecast: 41-41
MAKE A CHOICE: GET A THIRD STAR -- OR START OVER
Tom Haberstroh: You have two young stars in the backcourt in John Wall and Bradley Beal who don't play well together, outscoring opponents by less than one point per 100 possessions last season. With Wall and Garrett Temple? It's plus-2.2. That can't happen. Kevin Pelton: True, and you can't count on Beal to play all 82 games. Best-case scenario, if everyone is healthy? This could be the one team in the Southeast to contend for home-court advantage in the playoffs. Best case. Southeast Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 38.8 | Las Vegas: 40.5 | ESPN Forecast: 40-42
JUST ADMIT YOU SCREWED UP AND START AGAIN
Amin Elhassan: The Bulls are this year's Team Turmoil. Kevin Pelton: Oh, yeah. You've got Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler on the perimeter -- three guys who want the ball in their hands. And they were poor defensively after Joakim Noah got hurt last season. Rondo is maybe the worst point guard defender, and Wade does not put forth energy defensively. AE: They've got the worst combination of talent around Butler. It's gonna be a train wreck. Central Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 34.8 | Las Vegas: 40.5 | ESPN Forecast: 40-42
MEMO TO PHIL: KRISTAPS IS THE FUTURE -- STOP GETTING IN HIS WAY
Ohm Youngmisuk: How do the ball-dominant Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose coexist? How can Kristaps Porzingis improve with them? Amin Elhassan: Good questions, but the issue is health. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Yeah, Rose and Joakim Noah won't play 82 games -- and depth is poor. Also, those two have been really bad at basketball. Rose was 75th in real plus-minus last season among point guards. In the past two seasons, Noah's PER was worse than in his rookie year. Atlantic Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 33.4 | Las Vegas: 36 | ESPN Forecast: 39-43
THE BUCKS NEED SOMEONE WHO CAN THROW THE BALL IN THE OCEAN
Dave McMenamin: Our panel has the Bucks adding six wins? But that was before we knew Khris Middleton was out for six months. The Bucks didn't address their 3-point shooting, which was ninth worst last season at 34.5 percent. Amin Elhassan: You can't have eight dudes who can't shoot. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Like the Sixers, the Bucks got a bunch of length together and assumed they could teach shooting. That's not so easy. Central Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 35.4 | Las Vegas: 34.5 | ESPN Forecast: 36-46
CAPITALIZE ON ADDITION BY DWYANE WADE SUBTRACTION
Brian Windhorst: The Heat held firm on Wade but spent $20 million on Derrick Williams, Dion Waiters, James Johnson and Wayne Ellington? Tom Haberstroh: Parting with Wade made Miami better long-term. Once Pat Riley ended the Chris Bosh era, the rebuild began. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside work well together -- and had a plus-9.2 net rating without Wade -- but that was with Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. Can Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow replace them? Not yet. Southeast Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 36.8 | Las Vegas: 36.5 | ESPN Forecast: 35-47
LOSE A FEW MORE NOW, WIN A LOT MORE LATER
David Thorpe: OK, so the Magic's under-25 talent -- Mario Hezonja, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier -- is strong. Tom Haberstroh: Agreed, but their moves (trading for Serge Ibaka, signing Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green) suggest they don't believe in them. I mean, Green could get minutes ahead of Gordon or Hezonja. Kevin Pelton: They just haven't found an anchor. As much as we like Gordon, can he be the best player on a contender? DT: Not this season. Southeast Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 25.9 | Las Vegas: 24.5 | ESPN Forecast: 20-62
CAN BEN SIMMONS BE MORE THAN A FLASHY PASSER WHEN HE RETURNS?
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Before Simmons broke his foot, Jared Dudley predicted Hall of Fame success for him. Others said he reminded them of a 6-foot-10 Rajon Rondo. Kevin Pelton: Is "6-10 Rondo" an insult? ESS: Well, at summer league he was playing to make those passes, as opposed to trying to win. That's the Rondo comparison. Amin Elhassan: Look, at least Joel Embiid is back -- and he's the most talented dude on the roster. Atlantic Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 29.3 | Las Vegas: 22.5 | ESPN Forecast: 20-62
WE WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO BE EXCLUDED FROM THIS NARRATIVE
Amin Elhassan: I feel no inclination to ever watch the Nets play. Why should I care about them? Ohm Youngmisuk: You're hoping that Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez play the pick-and-roll to perfection. You hope "Linsanity 2" will happen. AE: Yeah, Lin's a good vet for the young guys, and he's an upgrade over what they were doing last season, but that's not saying much. OY: Oh, and they don't control their first-round pick until 2019. It's bleak. Atlantic Division Podcast
Zach Lowe's NBA Tiers | FiveThirtyEight Projections
Win Total Projections
RPM: 66.7 | Las Vegas: 66.5 | ESPN Forecast: 67-15
CAN THE NEW MANU BE MOLDED OUT OF KLAY?
David Thorpe: This might sound crazy, but Klay Thompson, who was 12th in the NBA in scoring last season, should come off the bench. With the signing of Kevin Durant, there's only one ball to go around. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Klay actually brought up Manu Ginobili at Team USA practice. He said Manu has all these championships and could have chosen to score 25 every night instead. Klay's game isn't the same, but he's looking to Manu as a model. DT: And Klay could finish games with the starters. ESS: You couldn't bench Draymond Green -- he's too important and wouldn't like it. Klay could probably be sold, though. He would accept it and be the good soldier. Pacific Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 54.4 | Las Vegas: 56.5 | ESPN Forecast: 57-25
TIMMY'S DONE. POP'S SAD. NEW FACES ... SAME RESULT?
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: With no Tim Duncan -- who was second in the NBA in defensive real plus-minus last season -- no Boris Diaw, and whatever is left of Pau Gasol, I wouldn't be shocked if this is where the wheels come off for the Spurs. Amin Elhassan: Yeah, Rome didn't fall overnight. But it fell! And if it happens now, is the loss of Duncan a part of that? I question whether it's part of a bigger thing; how over time the Tiago Splitters, the Aron Bayneses -- all the guys who were "Spurs guys" -- are gone, and now it's LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Pau -- all these dudes who are not part of the culture San Antonio spent two decades building. Southwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 46.8 | Las Vegas: 53.5 | ESPN Forecast: 52-30
BREAK ON OUT OR BREAK IT UP
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: The Clippers might be the second-best team in the West. In fact, if they're healthy, I think they are. If I had to choose a main threat to the Warriors, it would be the Clippers. There, I said it. David Thorpe: Yep. If it was 4-on-4, as good as Golden State's best four is, I'd love the Clippers' top four in Chris Paul, JJ Redick, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin -- which, by the way, had the fifth-best net rating among four-man lineups in 2015-16. ESS: Of course, I did bring this up to some people who work in the Warriors organization and they laughed at me. They just openly laughed at me. It might have been what I was wearing. Pacific Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 44.9 | Las Vegas: 45.5 | ESPN Forecast: 46-36
$350M TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO? GUH
Kevin Arnovitz: Teams that make a big one-year jump or have surprise success -- like the Trail Blazers did last season after losing four starters -- often come back to earth. Portland signed Evan Turner, a real NBA curio, for four years and $70 million, along with Festus Ezeli, a health question mark, for two years and $15.1 million. And the Blazers kept their young core: Allen Crabbe, four years, $75 million; Meyers Leonard, four years, $41 million; Maurice Harkless, four years, $42 million; C.J. McCollum, four years, $106 million. Brian Windhorst: That sounds like, "Wow, huge upgrades to the team." But in reality, they really only added Turner and Ezeli. Pacific Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 47.4 | Las Vegas: 48 | ESPN Forecast: 45-37
THE BANDWAGON IS FULL, BUT IS IT GOING ANYWHERE?
Kevin Arnovitz: If healthy, this is a top-eight defense. And if the Jazz are 11th in offense, where they project, I mean, that's a 50-win team. Kevin Pelton: Well, if you go by point differential, they would have been the best West team without home court in the playoffs. Brian Windhorst: Sorry, I'm not sold. The Jazz have been the budding team now for three years. Gordon Hayward can opt out after this season. Rudy Gobert is up for extension. And we still don't know what Dante Exum is. Northwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 45.7 | Las Vegas: 45.5 | ESPN Forecast: 44-38
IS A SOLO WESTBROOK THE BEST WESTBROOK?
Royce Young: I think we're all quick to draw the parallel here to 2014-15, when KD missed 55 games and Russell Westbrook put up patently absurd numbers. What people forget, though, is that OKC was effectively a .500 team during that stretch. So will Russ embrace his inner Kobe and shoot 26 times a game? Kevin Pelton: The answer might lie with Victor Oladipo, because when Russ was the man in 2014-15, he didn't have a partner who could create his own shot. Oladipo can. Northwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 39.9 | Las Vegas: 42.5 | ESPN Forecast: 43-39
THEY'RE GONNA GRIT 'N' GRIND RIGHT INTO THE GRAVE
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: The Tony Allen issue is a problem the Grizzlies can't bring themselves to fix. Kevin Pelton: He's 34, he can't shoot and his backups are Vince Carter and Troy Daniels. ESS: And you've got Marc Gasol, who signed for five years in 2015, then suffered a fractured navicular. Mike Conley gets the biggest contract in NBA history coming off Achilles tendinitis. And you've still got Zach Randolph, who's 35. Amin Elhassan: All true. This team is decaying before our eyes. Northwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 46.9 | Las Vegas: 44.5 | ESPN Forecast: 41-41
IT'S TIME TO MEND DEFENSE
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: I had a scout tell me he's convinced James Harden would intentionally botch assists that would've gone to Dwight Howard. Amin Elhassan: Howard would botch rotations, too. Tim MacMahon: It was toxic, but on defense, how will this team fare? AE: Listen, if a team scores 140 points but allows 120, is that worse than a team that scores 100 but allows 80? Kevin Pelton: What about a team that scores 120 but allows 120? Sorthwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 35 | Las Vegas: 39 | ESPN Forecast: 40-42
STOP JOGGING ON THE TREADMILL
Tim MacMahon: The Mavs are masters at failing at Plan A's and then recovering nicely. They're in that spot again. Amin Elhassan: What I can't reconcile is giving Harrison Barnes max money. TM: Well, they're hoping he can blossom into at least a second option, if not a go-to guy. But there is a lot of evidence that says that's very optimistic. Would it have been better if they had given Chandler Parsons the max instead? I think so. Southwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 38.1 | Las Vegas: 42 | ESPN Forecast: 39-43
BE PATIENT, LET TOWNS DEVELOP, RINSE, REPEAT
Brian Windhorst: What is the Warriors' biggest weakness? David Thorpe: The center position? BW: Right. You want to know the biggest threat to their dynasty? His name is Karl-Anthony Towns. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Yeah, Towns completely worked Draymond Green last season. BW: Listen, Golden State had better hope the Timberwolves have a slow progression because I think they're going to be a serious challenger in two seasons. Northwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 37.1 | Las Vegas: 35.5 | ESPN Forecast: 35-47
UM, SOMEBODY HELP ANTHONY DAVIS, SERIOUSLY
Tim MacMahon: Davis is one of the NBA's best players. He averaged a 24/10/2-block line twice before age 22. Shaq did it twice. Bob McAdoo did it. That's it. This should be a 50-win team. Kevin Pelton: When the game was iso-oriented, one star could drag you to 50 wins, but Davis has had historically poor support. Status quo would've made no sense for them. Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Well, I don't hate the Solomon Hill signing. Southwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 41.8 | Las Vegas: 37.5 | ESPN Forecast: 34-48
THERE'S A FORK IN THIS ROAD -- TAKE IT
Royce Young: Denver has good youth with Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Emmanuel Mudiay. But then it has some of these older guys, Darrell Arthur, Wilson Chandler -- even Kenneth Faried, who's actually 26 but seems older. Kevin Pelton: To me, it's two things: One is health. If Danilo Gallinari plays 70 games versus 50, it's a big difference. And two, whether to start trading vets midseason, which the Nuggets' record will determine. Faried is likely to get traded. Northwest Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 37.6 | Las Vegas: 33 | ESPN Forecast: 30-52
WELCOME TO THE ASYLUM
Brian Windhorst: The Kings have been trying to make a trade for a while. General manager Vlade Divac has an itchy trigger finger, and Rudy Gay is still there. David Thorpe: If coach Dave Joerger can't reach him, DeMarcus Cousins needs to be moved. Nothing against the guy, but he's the biggest name in the room, and that has really enabled him. One day he'll grow up, but maybe not with this team. I'd love to see him in a situation where he's just another guy. Pacific Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 28.9 | Las Vegas: 30 | ESPN Forecast: 26-56
GIVE THE KEYS TO THE KIDS AND LET THEM CRASH
Kevin Pelton: After years of trying to win faster than the team was set up to do, the focus, finally, is on development. Brian Windhorst: Right. And Devin Booker, who had a surprisingly great rookie year and still isn't even 20, is the Suns' main guy. David Thorpe: And Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender are super talented. Alex Len, too. I think T.J. Warren can be a scorer off the bench. This team's going to be bad. But there's young talent. No question. Pacific Division Podcast
Win Total Projections
RPM: 24.3 | Las Vegas: 26 | ESPN Forecast: 25-57
THEY STUNK REAL BAD WITH KOBE -- THEY'LL STINK SLIGHTLY LESS NOW
Ethan Sherwood Strauss: I don't like the young core they have. David Thorpe: I'd like to quote Jack Black from "High Fidelity": "You can be -- and are -- wrong." Those guys are super talented. ESS: I don't see the elite skills. DT: D'Angelo Russell needs a kick in the rear. Brandon Ingram needs to be challenged and grow into his body, which is painfully thin. These, as much as anything, are going to be the tasks for management and new coach Luke Walton. Pacific Division Podcast