A future ruling by the NHL looms large over the expansion-draft decisions of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Right winger David Clarkson is among the five players listed on the official protection list that the league distributed to all 31 clubs last month.
That's because Clarkson has a no-movement clause, just like teammates Brandon Dubinsky, Sergei Bobrovsky, Nick Foligno and Scott Hartnell. All five are on the list of 66 names who must be protected for the expansion draft -- which is June 17 -- unless they waive their no-movement clause.
Clarkson, 32, hasn't played since March 11 and is once again on long-term injured reserve. He has three more years on his deal after this season at a $5.25 million cap hit. Needless to say, the last thing the Jackets want to do is use one of their protected list spots on him.
Teams have two format choices for their protected lists: either 7-3-1 (seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie) or 8-1 (eight skaters regardless of position and a goalie).
At some point, the NHL will rule on injured players such as Clarkson, Nathan Horton (Toronto Maple Leafs) and Ryane Clowe (New Jersey Devils), all three of whom are on the list of 66 protected players.
"Expansion draft rules have provisions allowing us to accord certain contracts different treatments in cases where a player is suspected of having career-ending injuries,'' deputy commissioner Bill Daly wrote in an email to ESPN.com last month.
That doesn't mean, of course, the ruling will be the same for all three players. Clowe is on the Devils' coaching staff now, so his player career is clearly over. It seems almost impossible that Horton will play again. So the Devils and Leafs might get favorable rulings there. As for Clarkson, who knows? Maybe he'll play again, maybe not.
In any case, should the NHL for whatever reason rule that the Jackets still must protect Clarkson, Columbus will have to hope it can convince him to waive his no-movement clause.
Or what if the new Vegas franchise actually wanted Clarkson -- for no other reason than using his cap hit would help the Golden Knights reach the minimum payroll number the league has set? It's food for thought.
Let's have some fun here and predict who will be on Columbus' protected list while assuming, for now, that somehow it won't have to protect Clarkson. We'll go with the 7-3-1 format route:
Forward
The Jackets must protect Hartnell, Foligno and Dubinsky, per their no-move clauses. I'd also protect Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Alexander Wennberg and Boone Jenner. That would expose the likes of William Karlsson, Josh Anderson and Matt Calvert.
Now, I suppose you also have to ask, what to do with Hartnell, 34, who has two more years on his deal after this season at a $4.75 million cap hit? Do you ask him to waive his no-move (or buy him out) and protect Karlsson, Anderson or Calvert again?
The organization's top forward prospects -- the ones of note anyway -- are all exempt, by the way. Prospects are off the table, as are first- and second-year players.
Defense
I'd protect Seth Jones and Ryan Murray, for sure. Then the Blue Jackets have to decide between Jack Johnson and David Savard. I'd go with Savard, who is three years younger, but that's a tough call. One of those two guys will get exposed if they go the 7-3-1 route. Youngsters such as Zach Werenski and Markus Nutivaara are exempt and don't need protection.
Goal
Bobrovsky, of course, is already protected, but it's worth mentioning that AHL prospects Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg are both eligible for the expansion draft. So Vegas would have a crack at either one.