The 2022 NRL season is down to eight teams, as we head into what looks like an evenly matched finals series, promising intense battles on the way to eventually crowning the premiers.
We take a look at each of the remaining teams, what they face, their up- and down- sides, and why they could hold the trophy aloft on October 2.
Penrith Panthers
Finished: Minor Premiers
First up: Parramatta Eels
Outcomes: Win = week off, Preliminary Final vs. Sharks, Cowboys, Roosters or Rabbitohs.
Lose = Play winner of Storm vs. Raiders, then play winner of Sharks vs Cowboys.
Results against Top 8: Rabbitohs (W 26-12), Raiders (W 36-6), Eels (L 20-22), Storm (W 6-32), Roosters (W 12-32), Cowboys (W 22-0), Roosters (W 26-18), Sharks (W 20-10), Eels (L 34-10), Raiders (W 6-26), Storm (L 0-16), Rabbitohs (W 22-26), Cowboys (L 38-8)
Why they can win: The Panthers are reigning premiers and have clearly been the best team in the competition for the past few years. They have the New South Wales halves combination ready to pick up where they left off, along with a fast-moving, hungry pack of forwards designed to dominate in finals football. Their backline bristles with line-busting, try-scoring talent and they defend with the best of them. They have scored the most points and conceded the least this year, and are clear favourites for a very good reason.
Why they can't win: Nathan Cleary, the brains and heart of the side hasn't played for six weeks as he served a suspension for an ugly spear tackle. Jarome Luai has only had a couple of runs back from injury. Last week the Panthers ran their second grade squad against the Cowboys. This Panthers team has not played as a complete unit for a long time and there will surely be cobwebs. Conversely the Eels have been sharpening their form over the past few weeks and have already beaten the Panthers twice this year. Lose the opening game and they face the very real prospect of going out in straight sets as they meet either the Storm or a Storm-conquering Raiders in the second week.
TAB odds: Premiership: $2.30, Grand Final: $1.50
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
Finished: Second
First up: North Queensland Cowboys
Outcomes: Win - Week off, Preliminary Final vs. Panthers, Eels, Storm or Raiders.
Lose = Play winner of Roosters vs Rabbitohs, then play winner of Panthers vs. Eels
Results against Top 8: Raiders (L 24-19), Eels (W 18-16), Storm (L 34-18), Raiders (L 10-30), Roosters (L 16-36), Storm (W 28-6). Cowboys (W 12-26), Panthers (L 20-10), Rabbitohs (W 21-20)
Why they can win: The Sharks have this season's third best defence and scoring weapons across the park. Their halves combination of Nicho Hynes and Matt Moylan is among the competition's most potent. They play behind a powerful pack of forwards, with some lethal outside backs at their disposal. Coach Craig Fitzgibbon is proving just how good he is in his first year in the Shire. On their day they are capable of matching it with the best and will be fired up to take home their second ever title.
Why they can't win: The Sharks have lost to the Panthers, Storm, Roosters and twice to the Raiders. They have had a very soft run to the finals, are the seventh best for scoring points, and are a worry when it comes to handling big game pressure. They have the Cowboys first up at home and will really want to take advantage of that, because a loss will see them face the Roosters or Rabbitohs in the second week.
TAB odds: Premiership: $7.50, Grand Final: $2.60
North Queensland Cowboys
Finished: Third
First up: Cronulla Sharks
Outcomes: Win - Week off, Preliminary Final vs. Panthers, Eels, Storm or Raiders.
Lose = Play winner of Roosters vs Rabbitohs, then play winner of Panthers vs. Eels.
Results against Top 8: Raiders (W 26-6), Roosters (L 4-28), Raiders (W 12-18), Eels (W 4-35), Storm (W 36-6), Panthers (L 22-0), Sharks (L 12-26), Roosters (L 32-18), Rabbitohs (L 20-10), Panthers (W 38-8)
Why they can win: The Cowboys have responded very well to the coaching of Todd Payten, who has them playing an exciting brand of football. They trail only the Panthers when it come to points differential for the season. They have a very exciting spine with Reece Robson at hooker, a revitilised Chad Townsend at halfback, Tom Dearden at five eighth and Scott Drinkwater at fullback. They also have inspirational wrecking ball Jason Taumalolo leading a forward pack which also contains rising superstars Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai.
Why they can't win: In their last eight rounds before the finals they have only beaten the reserve grade Panthers out of the four Top 8 teams they faced. They lost to the Sharks, Roosters and Rabbitohs during that run. A lot of their success this year has come north of the Tweed River and they face the Sharks in the Shire to start their finals run. Lose that and they will host the Roosters or Rabbitohs at home, and they haven't beaten either team this year.
TAB odds: Premiership: $10, Grand Final: $4
Parramatta Eels
Finished: Fourth
First up: Penrith Panthers
Outcomes: Win = week off, Preliminary Final vs. Sharks, Cowboys, Roosters or Rabbitohs.
Lose = Play winner of Storm vs. Raiders, then play Preliminary Final vs. winner of Sharks vs Cowboys.
Results against Top 8: Storm (W 24-28), Cowboys (L 4-35), Panthers (W 20-22), Roosters (L 31-24), Raiders (W 20-28), Roosters (W 26-16), Rabbitohs (L 30-12), Panthers (W 34-10), Rabbitohs (L 0-26), Storm (W 22-14)
Why they can win: Is the longest running premiership drought in the competition set to end? The Eels are absolutely purring along and Mitchell Moses has returned to sparkling form after recovering from a broken finger. His combination with Dylan Brown, through his passing game and precision kicking, is almost impossible to stop. In the engine room Junior Paulo combines with Reagan Campbell-Gillard to get the Eels on the front foot, while lurking around the ruck ready to take advantage of any opportunity is Clinton Gutherson.
Why they can't win: As well as losing to the Rabbitohs twice and the Cowboys and Roosters, the Eels have fallen to some of the bottom dwellers this year. There is a very real mental application problem at the Eels, and it could rear its ugly head in the big games. If they don't win this first one against the Panthers, the ghosts of premiership challenges past could come back to haunt them and the Storm or Raiders will be waiting to end their misery the following week.
TAB odds: Premiership: $6.50, Grand Final: $2.75
Melbourne Storm
Finished: Fifth
First up: Canberra Raiders
Outcomes: Win = Semi Final vs. loser of Panthers vs. Eels, then Preliminary final vs. winner of Sharks vs. Cowboys.
Lose = Mad Monday.
Results against Top 8: Rabbitohs (W 15-14), Eels (L 24-28), Raiders (W 16-30), Sharks (W 34-18), Panthers (L 6-32), Cowboys (L 36-6), Roosters (W 18-26), Sharks (L 28-6), Raiders (L 16-20), Rabbitohs (L 24-12), Panthers (W 0-16), Roosters (L 14-18), Eels (L 22-14),
Why they can win: It is the Storm after all. They head into yet another finals campaign with coach Craig Bellamy's immense big game knowledge behind them and star playmaker Cameron Munster in sparkling form. If Jahrome Hughes is fit, his combination with Harry Grant and Munster is of the highest class. They also have an ace up their sleeve in the form of Brandon Smith, whose penetrating runs can cause real issues for any team.
Why they can't win: They are missing the final vertebrae in their best spine, with fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen still out injured. Bellamy has experimented with both Nick Meaney and Munster up the back, but neither solution is ideal. They have lost to the Eels twice, Panthers, Cowboys, Sharks and Rabbitohs in a season where they also run up some massive scores against lesser sides. Their aura of invincibility has slipped a fair bit this year as some of their bit-part players have struggled at times to keep up with the stars of the team.
TAB odds: Premiership: $9, Grand Final: $4.50
Sydney Roosters
Finished: Sixth
First up: South Sydney Rabbitohs
Outcomes: Win = Semi Final vs. loser of Sharks vs. Cowboys, then Preliminary final vs. winner of Panthers vs. Eels.
Lose = Mad Monday.
Results against Top 8: Rabbitohs (L 28-16), Cowboys (W 4-28), Eels (W 31-24), Panthers (L 13-32), Sharks (W 16-36), Raiders (L 22-16), Storm (L 18-26), Eels (L 26-16), Panthers (L 26-18), Cwboys (W 32-18), Storm (W 14-18), Rabbitohs (W 26-16)
Why they can win: The Roosters ooze class throughout their backline from fullback James Tedesco, through winger Joseph Suaalii, Joseph Manu in the centres and Luke Keary and Sam Walker in the halves. Their forward pack has the right mix of mongrel and skill, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves leading the way, with Angus Crichton, Victor Radley and Siosiua Taukeiaho not far behind. They appear to be peaking at the right time of the year.
Why they can't win: They are only a couple of head clashes away from losing some of their most potent players. Victor Radley, Luke Keary and Sam Walker have all dealt with concussion issues during their careers, if one or more are missing, the Roosters become less of a threat. Although playing some excellent aggressive football at the moment, props Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Matthew Lodge can be goaded into costly moments of ill-discipline.
TAB odds: Premiership: $9, Grand Final: $5
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Finished: Seventh
First up: Sydney Roosters
Outcomes: Win = Semi Final vs. loser of Sharks vs. Cowboys, then Preliminary final vs. winner of Panthers vs. Eels.
Lose = Mad Monday.
Results against Top 8: Storm (L 15-14), Roosters (W 28-16), Panthers (L26-12), Raiders (L 12-32), Eels (W 30-12), Storm (W 24-12), Sharks (L 21-20), Eels (W 0-26), Panthers (L 22-26), Cowboys (W 20-10), Roosters (L 26-16),
Why they can win: On their day the Rabbitohs can beat just about anyone, with Latrell Mitchell dominating from the back and Cody Walker working his magic with the backline. Despite being fairly predictable at times, they are often unstoppable. With Damien Cook at hooker, working short balls around the ruck with Cameron Murray, opposition defences are almost always on the retreat. They face an enormous hurdle first up against the Roosters, but victory at Allianz Stadium will see them carry a world of confidence into their next clashes.
Why they can't win: The Rabbitohs have been flustered into losses during the season by relentless, fast-moving defensive lines. If you cut down their time with the ball, Cody Walker can lose the plot and the Alex Johnston try production line can be shut down. They have been beaten by the Roosters, Raiders, Panthers and Sharks during the year and are very vulnerable to imploding under the weight of their own mistakes.
TAB odds: Premiership: $17, Grand Final: $9
Canberra Raiders
Finished: Eighth
First up: Melbourne Storm
Outcomes: Win = Semi Final vs. loser of Panthers vs. Eels, then Preliminary final vs. winner of Sharks vs. Cowboys.
Lose = Mad Monday.
Results against Top 8: Sharks (W 24-19), Cowboys (L 26-6), Storm (L 16-30), Cowboys (L 12-18), Panthers (L 36-16), Sharks (W 10-30), Rabbitohs (W 12-32), Eels (L 20-28), Rooosters (W 22-16), Storm (W 16-20), Panthers (L 6-26),
Why they can win: They have absolutely nothing to lose as coach Ricky Stuart looks set to unleash their attacking flair in a finals series no one expected them to participate in. With Jack Wighton back they possess a real weapon in the halves, while in the forwards they have Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine leading the way, eating up the metres. At fullback Xavier Savages adds an x-factor to a very dangerous attacking unit. They know they can match it with the other teams in the finals.
Why they can't win: They won seven of their final eight games to squeak into the finals, with the Storm their only Top 8 victim during that run. There have been times during the season when they have looked like world-beaters, but other games where they looked like real battlers. They have to be really switched on in order to survive elimination first up against the Storm. If they manage that, they face either the Panthers or Eels, who have both beaten them this season.
TAB odds: Premiership: $51, Grand Final: $23
All odds correct at time of publication. Check tab.com.au for the latest.