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Men's sevens tiers: Who can -- and can't -- win Olympic gold in Paris

The men's rugby sevens will be the second event to begin at the Paris Olympic Games, with competition to commence shortly after the opening men's football fixture on Wednesday.

After hosting last year's Rugby World Cup final, Stade de France will stage both the men's and women's sevens before the athletics get underway at the same venue.

So who enters the men's competition with a chance to win gold, a medal, or are simply there to make up the 12-nation field?

While the game's shortened format can throw up surprises, we've run the rule over the 12 competing countries and settled on three tiers of challengers.

THE GOLD MEDAL CONTENDERS

ARGENTINA

Winners of the regular season World Series, Argentina arrive in Paris as the gold-medal favourites. Los Pumas won three straight events on the world circuit to establish a buffer at the top of the standings and while their form tapered off towards the end of the season, a quarterfinal finish in Singapore still proved enough to see them edge out Ireland at the top of the ladder.

The Pumas' dip in form came while the outstanding Marcus Moneta was out injured with a broken fibula, but the 24-year-old returns to the squad for their Olympic campaign; though the loss of suspended World Rugby Sevens Player of the Year Rodrigo Isgro represents a hefty blow. Still, Argentina have a potent mix of speed, power and sevens acumen and will be intent on improving on their bronze medal from Tokyo.

FIJI

The two-time defending Olympic champions were not at their best across the recent World Series, with a third-placed finish the best result of a disappointing campaign. Coach Ben Gollings paid the price for those failings when he was sacked five rounds into the season, the Englishman replaced by 2016 gold medallist Osea Kolinisau. Fiji then hit rock bottom in Singapore when they failed to even reach the quarterfinals.

But the Pacific islanders rebounded in the Grand Final event in Madrid, where they finished with the bronze medal after defeating New Zealand 17-10. That result will have given Fiji a huge shot of momentum and confidence, while they retain the ability, on their day, of playing a brand of sevens that few others can match. They have also been bolstered by the return of Iosefo Masi and Selestino Ravutaumada from the Fijian Drua Super Rugby team, Jerry Tuwai, meanwhile, remains the glue that keeps the whole team together.

FRANCE

The Olympic hosts set about improving their sevens team and while the men's outfit took a while to get going on the recent World Series circuit, they finished with a flurry and were crowned Grand Final winners in Madrid following a 19-5 win over Argentina. That triumph followed a run of consecutive bronze, gold and silver medals from the fourth to second last events of the season.

Coincidentally, it was also the time when superstar Antoine Dupont made his transition, le petit generale proving just as dangerous in the game's shorter form as he is at 15s. Les Bleus will also be buoyed by the passionate home fans in Paris, who are aching for success after Dupont and his 15s counterparts exited last year's Rugby World Cup with a heartbreaking one-point defeat in the quarterfinals.

NEW ZEALAND

The All Blacks Sevens have probably flown a little under the radar recently, given Argentina's rise and the drama that has gone on inside the Fijian setup. But they will have relished that status and quietly put together yet another solid World Series campaign that finished with a bang. Winners of both of the Hong Kong and Singapore events, New Zealand were then only narrowly pipped by the Pumas in the Madrid semifinals.

New Zealand have a nice blend of Olympic experience and new blood, with six players returning from their silver medal effort in Tokyo and the other six heading to their first Games. Scott Curry and Regan Ware will be contesting their third straight Games, while Akuila Rokolisoa is one of All Blacks Sevens' younger brigade set to light up Stade de France this week.

A MEDAL OF ANY KIND WOULD BE A GOOD RESULT

AUSTRALIA

Coach John Manenti's team were the last of the automatic Olympic qualifiers from the 2022-23 World Series, leaving it until the final day of competition to book their place in Paris. They had a season earlier been crowned series champions for the first time, in what was a huge achievement for a men's program that has largely been overshadowed by Australia's sensational women's squad.

Australia's 2023-24 campaign was solid, highlighted by back-to-back runner-up finishers in Cape Town and Perth in the second and third events of the season. Unfortunately for former Wallabies captain Michael Hooper, a transition at this late stage of his career proved a bridge too far, his body letting him down with injury. Australia have however been boosted by the return of speedster Corey Toole and NRL-bound Wallabies winger Mark Nawaqanitawase, the latter set to improve their restart ability and offer a bigger body with ball in hand.

IRELAND

The surprise-packets of the most recent World Series season, Ireland finished just two points behind Argentina despite not claiming a title all year. What they did do however, was perform on a consistent basis as they reached all seven quarterfinals of the regular season, picking up a runners-up and three further bronze medal finishes in four of the last five events to boot. While the format was changed to align more closely with the Olympics this season, Ireland's improvement from eighth to second on the overall standings was hugely impressive.

But their inability to claim a title along the way suggests that a gold medal might be a bridge too far in Paris, while they also find themselves in a fiercely competitive pool that includes New Zealand and South Africa. Still, the Irish won't be short on confidence and they have also been boosted by the arrival of 15s star Hugo Keenan, whose extra pace will be a real weapon alongside Terry Kennedy, who was the leading try-scorer [31] on the World Series circuit.

SOUTH AFRICA

Given how successful they have been in the game's shorter format in recent years, it is hard to believe that the Blitzboks could have missed the Olympic competition altogether. After failing to qualify automatically, South Africa were then stunned by Kenya in the Africa qualifier. That meant the 2016 bronze medallists were left with only the final repechage qualifier to secure their place, which they did by beating Great Britain in Monaco in June.

Earlier during the World Series, the Blitzboks failed to advance beyond the quarterfinals after they lifted the trophy at the opening event in Dubai late last year. Meanwhile, coach Sandile Ngcobo was replaced by his assistant Philip Snyman in March, though the change in stewardship did little to improve South Africa's fortunes. They do however retain some brilliant sevens players, headed by Selvyn Davids and Rosko Specman, who will provide valuable Olympic experience from Tokyo.

UNITED STATES

While they have a few world-class sevens players, the USA will need to play right up to their collective potential and enjoy a good dose of luck along the way if they are to feature in the medal matches in Paris. The Eagles managed only one semifinal appearance on the 2023-24 World Series and were reasonably disappointing.

Still, in Perry Baker they retain a genuine game-breaker while Madison Hughes returns for his third Olympic campaign alongside the speedster. With Fiji and hosts France in the same pool, the U.S. can't afford to make a slow start and won't want to leave their quarterfinal fate to the mercy of results from the other pools.

MAKING UP THE NUMBERS

JAPAN

Qualifiers out of Asia, the Brave Blossoms are headed to their third straight Olympics. Japan were shock semifinalists in Rio, having upset New Zealand in their pool, but finished bottom of their pool without a win on home soil in Tokyo.

They were also not a part of the elite 12-nation World Series field this season, instead playing on the challenger circuit. With a lack of recent exposure against quality opposition, the Brave Blossoms will struggle to mount a serious challenge in Paris.

KENYA

While Kenya spent this season on the challenger circuit, they could rest easy in knowing they would be a part of the Olympics regardless having stunned the Blitzboks to secure Africa's qualification spot last September. Still, they finished second behind fellow Olympic qualifiers Uruguay and eventually won promotion back to the main 12-nation field via the playoffs in Madrid.

While their shock victory over South Africa shows they can still deliver a quality performance on their day, Kenya will do well to beat either of Australia or Argentina and are likely to find themselves in a scramble to be among the two best-placed third-place finishers, providing they can see off Samoa.

SAMOA

The last of this season's core teams to feature at the Olympics, Samoa found the going particularly tough. Their best finish came in Dubai in the season's opening event when they were beaten in the quarterfinals.

While they have the ability to force an upset, they simply cannot do it on a consistent enough basis to be classified as a medal threat in Paris. They also suffered the ignominy of being relegated to the challenger circuit for the 2024-25 SVNS series.

URUGUAY

The South American qualifiers are one of world rugby's big improvers, both in sevens and 15s, with Paris set to mark another milestone as their first ever Olympic appearance. Winners of the challenger circuit, Uruguay secured automatic promotion to the world series for next season.

But they do not yet have the playing quality nor big-game experience to be a serious medal threat, and will likely struggle to feature in the quarterfinals.