The countdown to the Rugby World Cup is about to enter double digits, with Wednesday marking the 100-day marker for the blockbuster tournament opener between hosts France and three-time champions New Zealand.
Perhaps not since 1995, when South Africa marked their debut at the Rugby World Cup with a 27-18 win of the All Blacks, following the end of sports isolation, has an opening game been of such magnitude.
That Sept. 8 kick-off will be followed by a jam-packed opening weekend of action that includes other key pool games England-Argentina, South-Africa-Scotland, and on the Monday, Wales-Fiji.
But it's on Sept. 9 that Australia begins its World Cup campaign, against Georgia in Paris, in a game that shouldn't give the Wallabies too many troubles, but one that also provides the ideal building block for the rest of the tournament.
So how are the Wallabies tracking 100 days out?
TIGHTHEAD PROP IS SUDDENLY EDDIE JONES' BIGGEST HEADACHE
Any knowledgeable rugby fan knows that while it's the fly-halves and wingers who usually earn praise for their match-turning moments, no team can go deep into a World Cup without a solid set-piece platform.
Got a lineout that only wins 75% of its own ball? Pack your bags at the quarterfinals.
Going backwards at scrum time? Find a tour bus and study up on your eglises [churches] -- that's the only way anyone will pay for your services in late October this year.
And there is no more important position at scrum time than tighthead prop. As of the weekend, the situation there for the Wallabies is increasingly grim. With Taniela Tupou still on the comeback trail from Achilles tendon surgery, Tom Robertson gone for 2023 following an ACL rupture, and now Brumbies captain Allan Alaalatoa out for at least six weeks with a calf strain, tighthead prop is suddenly the Wallabies' position of crisis.
When you consider that Angus Bell, who is likely to be James Slipper's deputy at loosehead and provide a huge injection of energy off the bench, has also been out for virtually the entire Super Rugby Pacific season, the front-row stability, as a whole, makes for ugly reading.
The loss of Robertson is particularly stinging not because he was likely to start, or perhaps even win a place among the replacements in Paris, but because of his unique ability to play on both sides of the scrum. And while Alaalatoa, Bell and even Tupou might return at some stage during the Rugby Championship, having three of your best four props under injury clouds just a couple of months out from the World Cup is far from an ideal scenario.
Thank goodness for the old workhorse Slipper, who may yet find himself wearing the [metaphorical] captain's armband, too. At tighthead, the stocks of Sam Talakai, Pone Fa'aumasili and Harry Johnson-Holmes are all on the rise.
IS THERE ANY POSITIVE INJURY NEWS?
Injuries are part of rugby, a part of all sports in fact. So while Jones might be cursing his front-row luck, there are several World Cup contenders who have either returned to action after extended stints in the rehab room, or made it back onto the park after less serious issues through Super Rugby Pacific.
Meanwhile, Jones had a first-hand viewing of Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi last Sunday as the Barbarians defeated the World XV at Twickenham. As coach of the Baa Baas, Jones spent the week with both players and while Kerevi departed the match after just 19 minutes, he confirmed later via Instagram that a hamstring issue was nothing more than a "little bump on the road."
Whether the duo start alongside one another against the Springboks in Pretoria in Australia's first Test of 2023 remains to be seen, but so good was their combination in 2021 that it appears this is the likely partnership when the Wallabies hit Paris.
Elsewhere in recent weeks; locks Matt Philip and Izack Rodda have returned from long layoffs, so too Hunter Paisami in a shorter window, while the likes of Izaia Perese, Lalakai Foketi, Nic White and Cadeyrn Neville will either return this weekend in Super Rugby or a week later in the playoffs.
Unfortunately, Rob Leota's hopes of a return in Super Rugby from his own Achilles issue have been dashed, with the Rugby Championship now his goal. Meanwhile, Max Jorgensen's Super Rugby Pacific season is over due to a knee injury; the 18-year-old's World Cup dream hanging by a thread.
IS THE LACK OF AUSTRALIAN SUCCESS AGAINST NEW ZEALAND TEAMS A CONCERN?
ESPN asked Jones that question ahead of Super Rugby Pacific kick-off, with the Wallabies coach playing down its importance before then circling back and suggesting it would count for player selections, but not necessarily the hopes of the national team.
This reporter also put a marker of 10 Australian trans-Tasman wins as a good result and something that would genuinely inspire hope that maybe, just maybe, the Wallabies could be a better outfit than the 5-9 team that stuttered through 2022.
Ahead of this weekend's final round, Australia's collective trans-Tasman ledger stands at 5/20, with only the Force's game against the ladder-leading Chiefs to come in the regular season. While several others have been incredibly close, the fact that three of those wins have come against the bottom-placed New Zealand team, the Highlanders, paints a more accurate picture.
Regardless, Australia's teams managed seven trans-victories in 2022, plus a further win in the playoffs, so 2023 has seemingly been a regression.
Of most concern, perhaps, was the performance of the Brumbies against the Chiefs, pitting the best team from each of Australia and New Zealand against one another, on the weekend. With a large chunk of the Wallabies expected to come from the ACT side, particularly up front, the 31-21 defeat was a reality check for Stephen Larkham's men and one that can't have pleased Jones, even if the 63-year-old had the distraction of coaching Quade and co. at Twickenham.
Having been in an excellent position to secure a top-two spot, the Brumbies are now likely to finish fourth which would earn them a quarterfinal against the Hurricanes, in a repeat of last year's knockout clash. Given the fact that no Australian team has ever won a playoff game in New Zealand, one playoff win in Canberra, at the very least, would be vital for the psyche of Australian rugby and for Jones to have any semblance of momentum ahead of the Rugby Championship.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ENCOURAGING INDIVIDUAL PEFORMANCES THOUGH, RIGHT?
Yep, and none more so than Rebels playmaker Carter Gordon, who may well wind up as the Australian Super Rugby Player of the Year, so good have his performances been. And that extends to trans-Tasman games as well, where the 22-year-old has stepped up against high-profile fly-half opposition.
Along with a slick passing game and a willingness to take the ball to the line, Gordon has defended gamefully, repeatedly throwing his body into tackles with the kind of grit seldom associated with No. 10s.
Elsewhere, Fraser McReight has put pressure on Michael Hooper with a strong season for the Reds - he leads all-comers for tackles made [187] and pilfers [18] - and has consistently been among his side's top three performers week after week.
Langi Gleeson has been a standout for the Waratahs meanwhile, further clouding the selection picture at No. 8 which already runs to Rob Valetini, Pete Samu and Harry Wilson; the Brumbies' Corey Toole and his blinding pace has given Jones something to consider on the wing, just as Suliasi Vunivalu appears to finally be running at full speed.
And then there's last year's breakout performers Nick Frost, Mark Nawaqanitawase and Jed Holloway, who, if Jones was naming his World Cup squad tomorrow, could each rest easy knowing their names would be safe among it.
Fullback continues to be a head-scratcher, though Tom Wright and Andrew Kellaway have each enjoyed their moments this season, while Matt Faessler has done his best to add his name to considerations at hooker, which continues to be a problematic position in an increasingly problematic front-row.
Time is fast running out for players on the fringes to push their cause; but for someone like Gordon, one final strong showing against the Brumbies on Friday might well be enough to earn him a crack at the Rugby Championship. From there, anything is possible.
WHERE IS THE GITEAU LAW AT?
As it stands today, officially, Jones could only select three players for the World Cup who have not been contracted to a Super Rugby Pacific franchise this season. Furthermore, they would have had to have given five years of service to Australian rugby or played a minimum of 30 Tests.
But anyone who has listened to Jones, or Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan, could easily foresee a broadening of the Overseas Player Selection Policy [Giteau Law], by the time Jones names his squad in mid-late August.
While a change is not immediately imminent, ESPN understands Jones is likely to front the board in the coming weeks where he will discuss his World Cup planning and how Australia might benefit from an extension of the Giteau Law.
And the coach himself admitted as much in a recent podcast, telling The Evening Standard: "We haven't tabled that with the board yet, but I'm sure we're going to get a positive response on getting more players. Because we've got [Will] Skelton, who's probably the best right-sided lock in the world, Richie Arnold at Toulouse, who's a fantastic player in the Top 14.
"Quade Cooper, [Samu] Kerevi, [Marika] Koroibete - we can't snub that sort of talent. I think Australians are always better when they are underdogs, when everyone thinks they haven't got a sniff of it. They can come in under the radar."
Those comments, so too the fact that Will Skelton [La Rochelle] and Bernard Foley [Kubota Spears] were part of title-winning teams in Europe and Japan respectively, and Marika Koroibete's status as the reigning John Eales Medallist and a member of World Rugby's Team of the Year, it's nigh on impossible to see how those five players could be left out of the Wallabies' squad.
Some critics may point to Foley's time-wasting horror show from Bledisloe I last year or Skelton's perceived status as a hurdle at lineout time; but that would be to overlook the fly-half's surety in front of goal, so too the fact that the towering second-rower jumped at No. 2 in La Rochelle's Rugby Champions Cup triumph.
Rory Arnold's hopes, however, were dealt a huge blow by the fact his Japanese club withdrew from their League Two competition following an off-field incident in Beppu involving the playing group. Japanese clubs don't muck around when it comes to player behaviour. The fact that Jones name-dropped Arnold's brother, Richie, again after including him in his April training squad suggests the coach may get even more wiggle room than just the number of players he can pick from overseas.
Richie Arnold is uncapped and played only one season for the Brumbies, meaning the 30-cap or five years' service clauses would also need overhauling.
HOW DO THE NEXT THREE MONTHS LOOK?
In terms of Super Rugby Pacific, Australian hopes lie with the Brumbies despite their resting blunder against the Force, and the lacklustre showing against the Chiefs that followed. Could Larkham's side scramble their way to the final? History says no, but ACT will point to the fact that only a Ben O'Keeffe howler in Auckland stood in the way of a huge upset and a place in the final last year.
If the Brumbies - or the Waratahs by some miracle -- did somehow reach the decider, Jones would have two weeks to prepare his side for their Rugby Championship opener against the Springboks in Pretoria. The Wallabies have never won at Loftus Versfeld dating all the way back to 1963, and would again be at long odds to do so on July. 8.
While a date with Argentina at CommBank Stadium in Sydney seven days later would not be as challenging, the travel back from South Africa and a Michael Cheika-wired Pumas would be absolutely anything but a walk in the park.
Then it's a fortnight off, before back-to-back Bledisloe Tests in Melbourne and Dunedin respectively. Jones has rallied the call for a bumper crowd at the MCG where the Wallabies have enjoyed trans-Tasman success twice before. And Australia have the FIFA Women's World Cup to thank for their avoidance of Eden Park; Forsyth Barr Stadium is a far less intimidating venue.
From there the Wallabies depart for France in mid-August, most likely with 36-40 players, which is a handful more than their 33-man squad which needs to be confirmed by August 28. A pre-World Cup Test against the hosts in Paris will give Jones one last opportunity to evaluate his group before he settles on the final 33.
THEIR PROSPECTS 100 DAYS OUT, THEN?
There is obviously five tough Tests to come through before that point; each which will throw up incidents of good and poor form, injury, questions about combinations, and whether Jones' playing style, or blueprint, for the Wallabies can be implemented in such a short space of time.
Just how they perform in France is anyone's guess, but it's true the Wallabies are on the far weaker side of the World Cup draw. It's a huge positive for Australia that it will be the semifinals before they meet any of the world's top five ranked nations - Ireland, France, New Zealand, South Africa or Scotland - should they negotiate their pool and then a quarterfinal with Argentina, England or potentially even Japan, safely.
On that basis, given their previous deeds under Rennie, the continued discipline issues of 2022, Super Rugby Pacific form and injuries, advancing beyond the semifinals appears unlikely.
But RA rolled the dice on the fact that Jones is a proven performer at World Cups - he has made two finals and lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy as an assistant with Springboks in 2007 - and is betting that the veteran coach can make the Wallabies a better team than Rennie could.
If he can't, then those at Rugby Australia who made the decision should consider their position. With Andy Marinos already headed for the exit door, that leaves only Hamish McLennan.
But try telling that to the bullish RA chairman -- he's confident the Wallabies can do something special in France.
Many of us could not be less convinced.