As the calendar turns to 2023, it's time to start thinking about WNBA free agency. Later this month, players and teams can begin to negotiate contracts, which can be officially signed starting on Feb. 1.
Although this year's class of free agents isn't quite as top-heavy as last year's, which featured the two most recent MVPs (Jonquel Jones and A'ja Wilson), it's a star-studded group with six members of the WNBA25 list of the top 25 players in league history.
In particular, forward Breanna Stewart stands out as a former MVP in her prime who will likely be an unrestricted free agent for the second consecutive year. With teammate Sue Bird retired, could Stewart leave the Seattle Storm this time around?
Predictably, Stewart tops my projections for 2023 in terms of wins above replacement player (WARP), my player value metric based on player performance over the past three seasons and age.
Who else rounds out the top 15 WNBA players available in free agency this offseason? Let's take a look.
(Note: Players are unrestricted free agents unless otherwise noted. Free agent classifications courtesy HerHoopStats.com.)
1. Breanna Stewart
Seattle Storm
Forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 28
Projected WARP: 5.7
After taking a meeting with the New York Liberty last offseason before returning to the Storm on a one-year deal, Stewart returns to free agency. Because the Storm used the core designation on teammate Jewell Loyd and re-signed her to a two-year deal last offseason, they don't have it available to use on Stewart as long as Loyd remains on the roster. So Stewart will likely be unrestricted coming off a season in which she led the WNBA in scoring for the first time at 21.8 PPG and finished runner-up in MVP voting for the second time in three years.
2. Brionna Jones
Connecticut Sun
Center
Age as of Feb. 1: 27
Projected WARP: 3.5
As a two-time All-Star, Jones doesn't yet have the résumé of some of the more experienced free agents in this class. At 27, however, she's in the midst of her prime and could stand out in a larger role after winning Sixth Player of the Year last season coming off the bench behind Connecticut stars Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas. Pending a trade, the Sun can't currently offer Jones even the regular maximum salary other teams might, per Richard Cohen's analysis for HerHoopStats.
3. Candace Parker
Chicago Sky
Forward/center
Age as of Feb. 1: 36
Projected WARP: 3.1
Parker's two seasons back home in Chicago resulted in the franchise's first title in 2021 and the league's best record in the 2022 regular season, combined with an appearance in the Commissioner's Cup final. So even as Parker prepares for her 16th WNBA season, she remains a force who drives winning. Parker's versatile skill set has translated well to a smaller role in which she's no longer a go-to scorer on offense but a playmaking hub within a balanced offense.
4. Courtney Vandersloot
Chicago Sky
Guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 33
Projected WARP: 3.0
Because of Parker's presence and a lighter minutes load, Vandersloot saw her five-season streak of leading the WNBA in assists per game come to an end. On a per-minute basis, however, Vandersloot was still tops in the league, and she averaged 8.0 APG in the four games Parker missed. Surprisingly, Vandersloot embraced scoring more at age 33, putting up a career-high 15.9 points per 36 minutes.
5. Brittney Griner
Phoenix Mercury
Center
Age as of Feb. 1: 32
Projected WARP: 3.0
There's no precedent for projecting how Griner might play after spending nearly 10 months detained in Russia. It's also a secondary concern compared to the fact that Griner is free and has indicated she plans to return to the Mercury in 2023 as an unrestricted free agent.
6. Teaira McCowan
Dallas Wings
Center
Age as of Feb. 1: 26
Restricted
Projected WARP: 2.9
For three seasons with the Indiana Fever and her first half-season with the Wings, McCowan had shown flashes of dominance in the paint that never translated into consistent elite play. That came in the second half of 2022, when McCowan averaged 17.7 PPG on 61% shooting and 10.5 RPG after the All-Star break as Dallas went 7-4 despite playing without Arike Ogunbowale for an extended stretch. It will be interesting to see whether McCowan draws an offer sheet from another team as a restricted free agent in a market deep in posts.
7. Emma Meesseman
Chicago Sky
Forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 29
Projected WARP: 2.8
After sitting out the 2021 campaign because of the Tokyo Olympics, Meesseman returned as the same kind of well-rounded contributor she was with the Washington Mystics, making a second All-Star appearance and shooting a career-high 57% from the field. Given Meesseman won't turn 30 until the week before opening night, she should have several seasons of high-level performance remaining.
8. Tina Charles
Seattle Storm
Center/forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 34
Projected WARP: 2.2
Because of Charles' elite play in 2021, when she led the WNBA in scoring at 23.4 PPG for the Mystics and earned All-WNBA Second Team honors, she projects to bounce back after a 2022 campaign marked by a midseason exit from the Mercury. Charles accepted a smaller role with the Storm, initially coming off the bench for the first time in her career, helping Seattle replace injured center Mercedes Russell.
9. Nneka Ogwumike
Los Angeles Sparks
Forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 32
Projected WARP: 2.2
Ogwumike's modest projection is the most surprising in this year's group. She has posted at least 2.5 WARP each of the past three campaigns, including 4.3 last season when she earned All-WNBA Second Team honors for the first time since 2019. With Ogwumike in her 30s, some decline is to be expected, but likely more gradual than this projection would suggest.
10. Ezi Magbegor
Seattle Storm
Center/forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 23
Reserved
Projected WARP: 2.1
A full-time starter for the first time to begin 2022, Magbegor averaged 11.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG and a league-leading 2.3 BPG in that role prior to the All-Star break, looking very much like a budding star at age 22. Magbegor wasn't nearly as effective in a reserve role behind Charles after the break, seeing her shooting percentage drop from 56% to 51% and productivity decline on a per-minute basis. That's likely just a bump in the road as Magbegor's future remains bright. Because Magbegor did not come to the WNBA immediately after being drafted in 2019, she can negotiate only with the Storm as a reserved free agent.
11. Han Xu
New York Liberty
Center
Age as of Feb. 1: 23
Reserved
Projected WARP: 1.9
The WNBA's tallest player at 6-foot-10, Han translated that size into huge productivity in her second WNBA campaign at age 22. Per 36 minutes, Han averaged 18.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. Like Magbegor, Han does not have the four years of service necessary to become a restricted free agent -- she has played just two -- and will be able to negotiate only with the Liberty.
12. Marina Mabrey
Dallas Wings
Guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 26
Restricted
Projected WARP: 1.9
Making a career-high 32 starts last season, Mabrey has established herself as a quality contributor in that role. Her 13.6 PPG and 3.7 APG in 2022 were both career highs. At age 26, Mabrey is just hitting her prime. Given the dearth of ball handlers in free agency, the market for Mabrey could be robust as we saw in the HerHoopStats mock offseason.
13. Azurá Stevens
Chicago Sky
Forward/center
Age as of Feb. 1: 27
Projected WARP: 1.8
As part of a deep Chicago frontcourt, Stevens has averaged more than 22 minutes per game only once in her career, as a full-time starter in 2020 before Parker joined the Sky. Per 36 minutes, Stevens averaged a career-high 17.4 points last season, suggesting she could thrive in a larger role during the prime of her career.
14. Diana Taurasi
Phoenix Mercury
Guard
Age as of Feb. 1: 40
Projected WARP: 1.7
Taurasi told a local TV station in November she plans to return for a 19th WNBA season, during which she'll turn 41. Taurasi hasn't been able to stay on the court as consistently in the late stages of her career, and her defensive impact has waned, but she remains one of the league's top scorers.
15. Alysha Clark
Washington Mystics
Forward
Age as of Feb. 1: 35
Projected WARP: 1.6
Returning from the Lisfranc injury that sidelined her for the 2021 WNBA campaign, Clark slumped to 30% beyond the arc after shooting 38% in nine seasons in Seattle but compensated by making 63% of her 2-point attempts. A consummate role player, Clark was a factor in the Mystics leading the league in defensive rating.