REGIONAL PREVIEWS: BRIDGEPORT | OKLAHOMA CITY | STOCKTON
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. While not perhaps the most inspiring motto, it fits well for the Lexington Regional. Denied a year ago by upstart Washington in the same arena that will host this year's regional semifinals and final, No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 2 Stanford and No. 4 Kentucky hope Lexington will now be a path to the Final Four. A few other teams, most notably No. 3 Texas and No. 5 Ohio State, hope to show that the Bluegrass State remains inhospitable to chalk.
Three storylines to watch
Is this the No. 1 Notre Dame we've come to know? It was just six years ago that Notre Dame making the Final Four at Tennessee's expense in Dayton was considered a breakthrough moment for the program, the dawn of a second golden era for the 2001 national champions. Final Four runs are now the expectation in South Bend, Indiana. That is again the case for the No. 1 seed in the region and the second overall seed in the tournament. But this was a different kind of season for the Fighting Irish, one that felt as much like building something new as fine-tuning the familiar.
Upset by Stanford in the Sweet 16 in Lexington a year ago, Notre Dame has just Lindsay Allen, Brianna Turner and Kathryn Westbeld remaining of those who have played in a regional final, let alone a Final Four. That is a foundation, to be sure, but a lot depends on the likes of Erin Boley, Marina Mabrey, Arike Ogunbowale and Jackie Young, players saddled with all of the expectations that come with playing for Notre Dame but little of the useful experience in March.
How sweet will home be for No. 4 Kentucky? There is a familiar feel to the Lexington bracket, which could welcome three of the same four teams that gathered there a year ago in the Sweet 16. Yet the most vulnerable among them might be the one already in Lexington for the first two rounds at Memorial Coliseum.
Kentucky's path to Rupp Arena and the Sweet 16 is short but fraught. First-round opponent No. 13 Belmont is the kind of mid-major team best avoided, one with 3-point range and postseason experience born of a competitive first-round game a year ago. Manage that and the chalk predicts a second-round game against No. 5 Ohio State, a team that has far from maxed out its potential. This isn't likely to be like last year, when Kentucky won its first-round game by 54 points and cruised in the second round.
Then again, not much about this season has been the same for Kentucky. Unranked at one point, the nadir of a season that began overshadowed by roster and staff departures, Kentucky capped its second-half revival with a win in Memorial Coliseum against Mississippi State. That showed off both a proven star in Makayla Epps and a breakout one in fellow senior Evelyn Akhator.
Is this Ohio State's Final Four path or Kelsey Mitchell's final farewell? Since so much about this part of the bracket already feels like a sequel, might Lexington again feature a junior poised to break the NCAA career scoring record? Kelsey Plum's points helped Washington erase a modest regular season and storm through Rupp Arena en route to the Final Four a year ago. And Mitchell, who might well claim the scoring record if she returns for another season instead of declaring for the WNBA draft, will have the same opportunity this year if she gets through the first two rounds at Memorial Coliseum.
That a team ranked No. 7 in the preseason is in Lexington and not Columbus for the opening round sums up a season that has felt underwhelming despite a win against Maryland and losses only against three No. 1 seeds and three other tournament teams. As much as Mitchell steers the ship, much could depend on whether Stephanie Mavunga, out since early February with a foot injury, returns in time for a difficult first-round game against No. 12 Western Kentucky.
Three players to watch
Darby Maggard, Belmont: If you know Maggard was the third-highest ranked recruit from the sophomore class participating in Lexington this weekend, you know your Belmont basketball. Only Kentucky's Maci Morris and Taylor Murray checked in ahead of her. So while she stands just 5 feet, 5 inches, she is a big-time talent. Most notably, she is hyper-efficient. In addition to shooting nearly 50 percent from the 3-point line on nearly seven attempts per game, she averages nearly six assists per game while turning over the ball just 58 times in 1,024 minutes.
Brooke McCarty, Texas: The tour of the best pound-for-pound players in the nation continues with McCarty, who actually gives up an inch of listed height to the aforementioned Maggard but became the first Texas player to win Big 12 player of the year. From a freshman who gamely but at times inefficiently took on significant minutes, she has grown into one of the most efficient guards in the country as a junior. She can get her own shot, on the perimeter or on the drive, find shots for others and doesn't give away possessions. She could be one of the stars of the tournament.
Karlie Samuelson, Stanford: The last name makes the story more interesting (younger sister Katie Lou is a player of the year candidate for UConn), but that isn't what makes this Samuelson a potentially pivotal player. She is the constant for the Cardinal -- 40 minutes in a win against Washington, 38 minutes in the win against Oregon State in the Pac-12 title game, 48 minutes in a double-overtime loss to Oregon State. That means defenses aware of her range have to track her for every wearying minute, which in turn depletes their resources and creates space for Erica McCall, Brittany McPhee and others.
Games to watch
Best first-round game: No. 10 Drake at No. 7 Kansas State: Some reward for cracking The Associated Press Top 25 and carrying the flag this season for mid-major programs. Not only was Drake handed a No. 10 seed, suggesting it isn't among the 36 best teams in the country, it is the only such seed playing a road game in the first round.
Yet as is often and frustratingly the case, a selection committee snub produces one of the opening round's most compelling games. Drake point guard Caitlin Ingle has more assists than any two Kansas State players. Teammate Lizzy Wendell isn't far off from having twice as many points as any opponent. But that isn't likely to spook an opponent that measured itself against Baylor and UConn and beat tournament teams Auburn, LSU, NC State, Oklahoma and West Virginia en route to March. Mid-major star power meets major-conference experience.
Best potential second-round game: No. 8 Green Bay at No. 1 Notre Dame: The first meeting this season merits a rematch. Perhaps the best performance by a mid-major this season came in Green Bay's 71-67 loss at Notre Dame in the Preseason WNIT. Mehryn Kraker, espnW's mid-major player of the year, and Jessica Lindstrom combined for 34 points in that game, and Lindstrom's 16 rebounds were more than any two Irish players combined.
Familiarity might aid the favorite, the Fighting Irish less likely than some top teams to take the Phoenix for granted and well-versed in their precision. At the same time, Green Bay's weakest moments in that first meeting came when it looked a bit awed by the surroundings in the opening few minutes. That, too, would be absent.
All of that said, while Notre Dame will be there barring a historic upset, Green Bay is anything but a lock in the first round against No. 9 Purdue, a patient team playing close to home.