This week's Bracketology is a good look at what could happen come Selection Monday. Enter the bid stealer.
Loosely defined, a bid stealer is a team other than the favorite in a mid-major league that wins the conference tournament when the best/favored team is already destined for an at-large bid. That gives that league two teams in the NCAA tournament, taking away an at-large spot from another team. Bid stealers are the nemesis to any bubble team.
Yale and Bradley represent the bid stealers in this week's projection. The Bulldogs lead the Ivy League at 2-0 and thus snag the conference's bid. Bradley remains unbeaten in the Missouri Valley and, while it also would be in contention for an at-large bid in what is a really good season in the MVC, Bradley is the automatic bid this week, giving the conference three teams in the field.
This scenario is tempered somewhat in that Yale's lead in the Ivy only comes from playing one more conference game (two total) than Princeton (one) because of the Tigers' annual quirky schedule for finals (they will go 20 days without playing a game). But it illustrates what could happen should Princeton lose in the Ivy League tournament final.
This week's bracket should serve as a road map to a variety of Championship Week scenarios not often seen. And Yale's and Bradley's inclusion kept two other mid-majors out of the field in James Madison and Western Kentucky.
In a season in which the ACC and SEC aren't quite as deep, and the haves and the have-nots in the Pac-12 are pretty well-defined, mid-majors could get more seats at the party. That's also because the list of bid stealers is longer than in a typical season.
First example: Gonzaga. The Zags aren't just an NCAA tournament team, but a possible host. The chances of them missing the NCAA tournament at this point are small. If someone else wins the WCC tournament, another bubble team would be eliminated. No other team in the WCC will even sniff an at-large bid.
South Dakota (Summit), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) and Princeton (Ivy) aren't at the same level of Gonzaga but still qualify as solid at-large candidates at this point. To a lesser degree, the same could be said about Central Michigan in the Mid-American Conference. That's five potential bid stealers.
With the added possibility of multiple bids from the Missouri Valley and Conference USA (right now Old Dominion is in the field as an at-large, with Rice leading the conference race), bubble teams from the Power 5 have perhaps seven spots to worry about, rather than the usual three or four.
The Big Ten, which still projects to have the most teams in the field (nine), could have the most to lose. Ohio State, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan have yet to seize enough opportunities, and each remains vulnerable. The Big 12 could be looking at just three or four bids and the Big East possibly one if some of these bid-stealing scenarios play out.
Some other bracket notes:
Oregon: Despite being the No. 4 overall team and the final No. 1 seed on this week's board, Oregon is set up nicely to nail down a top seed with just a couple more steps. With a 3-0 record against Stanford and Oregon State after a sweep of the Beavers last weekend, the Ducks will be difficult to move off that top line if they can beat UConn on Monday and UCLA on Valentine's Day -- and avoid any other surprises. Of course, winning in Storrs and Los Angeles are anything but routine, even for the preseason favorite.
Tennessee: Tennessee's game (and loss) to UConn last Thursday got all the attention, but what was lost in all that noise was the fact that the Lady Vols had a huge, season-defining week. Rennia Davis' miraculous 3-pointer saved what could have been a crushing loss to Alabama on Monday. After that disappointing second half against the Huskies, Tennessee rebounded with its biggest win of the season against LSU on Sunday, its first victory over an RPI top-50 opponent.
The schedule gets more difficult for the Lady Vols in the next couple of weeks, so losses in either or both of those games could have been devastating to NCAA tournament hopes that are far from secure, even with a 16-4 record.