After five intense weeks of double round-robin eliminations, the 2024 PBA Governors' Cup playoffs have finally arrived. The road to the championship is far from over, as teams now brace for an even more grueling challenge with playoff games scheduled every other day. Let's take a closer look at how each series might unfold.
TNT Tropang Giga-NLEX Road Warriors
A stark contrast of styles is expected in this series. TNT has found success through defense, as they were second in steals (8.1 per game) and possess the best defensive rating of 82.4 points per 100 possessions, according to InStat. NLEX, meanwhile, has been an above average team on offense with their 98.5 offensive rating. This clash of strengths -- TNT's lockdown defense against NLEX's efficient offense -- will be the key battleground, with the winner likely being the team that can dictate the game's tempo and force the other out of their comfort zone.
X-factor for TNT: Calvin Oftana
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been TNT's cornerstone this conference, delivering exactly what the team needs with impressive averages of 25.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 4.4 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. As they face tougher competition, it's crucial for the local players to elevate their performance to defend the Governors' Cup title.
One player who could be poised for a breakout in the quarterfinals is Calvin Oftana. Despite a minor hiccup mid-conference, Oftana still delivered solid numbers with 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, all while maintaining a sharp 56% true shooting percentage (TS%).
Oftana's ability to light it up could be the spark TNT needs to ignite a deeper playoff run. As per InStat, a low-hanging fruit play for him could be increasing his catch and drives reps -- with NLEX having no real shot blocker. If he finds his rhythm, expect the floor to open up for the team, making TNT even more dangerous as the playoffs progresses.
X-factor for NLEX: Who can be the third scorer?
NLEX averaged 104.6 points in during the eliminations with import DeQuan Jones (41.5 points) and Robert Bolick (20 points) registering 58.7% of them. It may be a tall order to find another shot creator for NLEX, but the rest of the team needs to hit the right notes and execute their roles to perfection.
Richie Rodger, Anthony Semerad, Robbie Herndon, and Baser Amer have been the main catch-and-shoot options according to InStat, collectively shooting 35.5% from beyond the arc. For NLEX to thrive, these players must continue to capitalize on the open looks generated by Jones and Bolick, spreading the floor and keeping defenses honest. A few timely 3s from this group could be the difference in this series.
Prediction: TNT in 4.
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters-Magnolia Hotshots
Rain or Shine, the top seed in Group B, faces a tough first test against the veteran-laden Magnolia squad. It will be intriguing to see if Rain or Shine's frenetic, unscripted style of play (104.5 offensive rating) can hold up in the playoffs, especially against Magnolia's battle-tested defense (85.2 defensive rating). Magnolia struggled to generate a consistent offense throughout the conference and will aim to slow the game down. They will force Rain or Shine into a more deliberate, half-court offense to keep the score low, in hopes of pulling out an upset.
X-factor for Rain or Shine: Gian Mamuyac and Jhonard Clarito
Magnolia's new import, Ray Rice, is the smallest import left in the conference, primarily playing at the 2 and 3 positions. Add Magnolia's talented local guards in the mix, the defensive responsibility will fall on Mamuyac and Clarito to contain Rice and disrupt Magnolia's offensive flow. Their ability to lock down the wings will be crucial in stifling Magnolia's attack.
Mamuyac should be the best defender against guards because of his skills and length. According to InStat, the 25-year old player allows just 0.72 points per possession (PPP) on pick-and-roll (PnR) situations where the ball-handlers take the shot. It's the same case for Clarito, but this time he's tasked to defend taller wings.
X-factor for Magnolia: Outside shooting
At the end of the elimination rounds, Magnolia ranked seventh in terms of 3-point shooting at 32.4% in 29.1 attempts per game. Even with their offense not being perimeter-oriented, they need to tap that button to prevent Rain or Shine from shrinking the floor on offense.
Magnolia will be counting on three key players to knock down shots from beyond the arc. Aris Dionisio just had a career night against NorthPort, hitting 9-of-11 from deep, showcasing his potential as a sharpshooter. Jerrick Ahanmisi has also become a crucial contributor this conference, draining 3s at an impressive 41.9% from 27 feet. And while Paul Lee has struggled with consistency from downtown, shooting just 34.9%, he's always capable of heating up when it matters most. Magnolia will need all three and others to deliver from long range to keep their offense flowing and less predictable to win over Rain or Shine
Prediction: Rain or Shine in 4.
San Miguel Beermen-Converge FiberXers
Youth versus experience will be the theme of this matchup. San Miguel, winners of multiple championships since the June Mar Fajardo era, will face Converge, a team embarking on its first-ever playoff run together. Despite San Miguel's playoff experience, this is not the time for Converge to be discouraged, as their opponent is currently grappling with import and defensive issues, ranking as the third worst defense in the league. With the right mindset, Converge has a real chance to capitalize on these weaknesses. But yes, San Miguel is San Miguel.
X-factor for San Miguel: EJ Anosike
It feels odd to rely on a player who hasn't played a single game, but in an import-laden conference, EJ Anosike finds himself in that role. Fortunately, he has the luxury of talented teammates around him, which helps ease some of the pressure. Anosike will need to contribute on both ends of the floor to compensate for the absence of former reinforcement Jordan Adams, whose scoring prowess will be difficult to replace.
Adams averaged an impressive 31.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on 53/37/91 shooting splits, setting a high bar for Anosike to meet. San Miguel's hope is that his young legs will work to his advantage and help the team beat Converge.
X-factor for Converge: Justin Arana
In Arana's first PBA playoff series, he's handed the daunting task to compete against the league's best big man in June Mar Fajardo. Even though he might have length and enough weight to put up against the 8-time MVP, the sheer effort could tire him out and lessen his offensive output.
For context, Arana has averaged 12.1 points on 54.8 TS% -- which is good for third best for Converge. Numbers tell us that Arana has been a stellar post-up defender through the eliminations, forcing a lowly 0.41 PPP in a nine game sample, per InStat. Although if we try to key in on his last two match-ups with Fajardo, it goes up to 0.86 PPP.
Arana's ability to maintain a strong defensive presence against Fajardo will be key if Converge hopes to neutralize San Miguel's inside game in this series.
Prediction: San Miguel in 4
Meralco Bolts vs Barangay Ginebra
Meralco is determined to break the curse against Justin Brownlee and Ginebra in the Governors' Cup, where they've suffered heartbreak in four Finals showdowns. But this time, confidence is building on Meralco's side. After all, they managed to defeat Ginebra in the last All-Filipino conference, riding that momentum to a championship.
Ginebra faces a different challenge this time around, as they'll need to see if one elimination round was enough to prepare this revamped squad for the playoffs. Still, with Brownlee on their side, Ginebra remains a legitimate contender, as his presence alone gives them a shot at going all the way, no matter the opposition.
X-factor for Meralco: Allen Durham
It's true that Durham hasn't been the same dominant force inside for Meralco as in past seasons, but this is his opportunity to feast, especially with Ginebra fielding only one true big man in Japeth Aguilar (and perhaps Joe Devance in a pinch). According to InStat, the former 3-time PBA Best Import has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.82 points per possession (PPP) on post-ups and 0.65 PPP on catch-and-drives. The bright spot, however, is his effectiveness in the pick-and-roll, where Durham is the roller, posting a solid 1.05 PPP.
Given Ginebra's limited frontcourt depth, Meralco will need to capitalize on this mismatch. If Durham can re-establish his inside dominance, it could force Ginebra to adjust defensively, potentially opening up opportunities for Meralco's shooters. Durham's ability to step up and exploit these weaknesses will be critical if Meralco hopes to finally overcome Ginebra's reign in the Governors' Cup.
X-factor for Ginebra: RJ Abarrientos
Ginebra has no time to dwell about their thin frontcourt rotation. What they could possibly do is double down on excellent guard play, specifically with the scoring influx displayed by Abarrientos. He has been a big offensive punch off the bench for Ginebra in the last five games with averages of 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists on an efficient 62.5 TS%.
Abarrientos has also been terrific in certain play types where he isn't required to be the primary decision-maker on offense, posting an impressive 1.15 points per possession (PPP) on catch-and-shoot situations and 1.33 PPP off screens, according to InStat. His ability to find and capitalize on open looks without having to create for himself makes him a valuable offensive asset.
While still developing in other areas, he provides Ginebra with a reliable scoring option off the bench, offering depth and versatility when their primary scorers need a breather.
Prediction: Ginebra in 5