CHICAGO -- The numbers that mattered over the past three days were 39 and 41. That's how many runs the Chicago Cubs scored and hits they compiled in a takedown of a woeful New York Mets pitching staff which ranks 14th in ERA in the National League. The sweep knocked three games off the schedule and reduced the Cubs' magic number to win the NL Central to 14.
But those are not the numbers that matter.
Instead, it's what the Cubs have done against the top-ranked pitching staffs which will determine if they can take a second straight division title. By now, there is a body of work to analyze, and while their overall record is OK against playoff-caliber teams -- such as the St. Louis Cardinals, who come to town on Friday -- they haven't hit nearly as well as manager Joe Maddon or any other interested observer would like.
Against the Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers and Nationals, the Cubs have a collective .228 batting average, .306 on-base percentage and a measly .382 slugging percentage. To be fair, most teams don't hit well against the top pitching staffs, but the Cubs have been especially bad. Beating up on the Mets means little if they revert back to their offensive struggles from just a few days ago, when they were swept by a good Brewers staff.
"We have to beat better pitching to win this thing," Maddon said after Thursday's win. "You have to score runs with outs. We're scoring runs without homers, sometimes, which is nice to watch and see, execution-wise."
As part of the hit parade against the Mets in Thursday's 14-6 victory the Cubs did score a few by playing small ball. It's likely what will be needed against the third-ranked Cardinals staff.
In the second inning, Jason Heyward's ground ball plated a run, as did pitcher Jen-Ho Tseng with a bouncer to shortstop. Chicago almost scored a third run in the inning in a similar fashion when Jon Jay bounced one to second base, but Taylor Davis didn't break for home. The point is, the Cubs were making contact with men on, not striking out. Can they do the same against the Cardinals?
"Familiarity," first baseman Anthony Rizzo said. "We're really familiar with them. We see [Carlos] Martinez, [Michael] Wacha and [Lance] Lynn all the time. We know what they have. We know their bullpen. On the other side, they know what we have."
Maddon readily admits the Cubs likely won't be scoring double-digit runs against the Cardinals this weekend, but they have to do better than the three they tallied against the Brewers a series ago. Until they put up more runs against a good pitching staff, there will be doubt surrounding the capability of this offense come October, no matter what they do against the also-rans of the league.
"We're not going to score 15 runs but we need to continue to execute good at-bats consistently," Maddon said.
Easier said than done with this year's Cubs offense, but Maddon has his players a little more ready then they were against the Brewers. Ben Zobrist has begun to heat up and got the night off on Thursday, so he's fresh for Friday's day game. Same goes for catcher Willson Contreras, whom Maddon praised for his patience at the plate since coming off the disabled list. In fact, the manager said he was "surprised" by how locked in Contreras has been.
And the Cubs are doing better in those little moments. Once ranked last in baseball, by a wide margin, in getting a man home from third with less than two outs, Chicago is now ranked 21st, successful about 50 percent of the time. That's a big improvement.
The Cubs took care of business against the Mets. That was needed as much as it was expected. Now 11 of their next 13 games come against the Cardinals and Brewers. This is when the season will be decided and an offense will be judged, no matter how dominant it just looked.
"It's the good thing about teams and rivalries like this," Rizzo said. "You know what you got so you can just go out there and play.
"At the end it's about looking up and being where you want to be."