Brace yourself, New York Jets fans. The next few days could be painful.
The free-agent exodus started Tuesday night, with the news that running back Chris Ivory will sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars, as ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported. The move cannot be made official until 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, when the new league year begins.
Ivory won't be the last to take someone else's money and run. Nose tackle Damon Harrison probably will be next, and he could be followed by Bilal Powell, Ivory's sidekick. Ryan Fitzpatrick, too, will hit the open market on Wednesday, but the team remains optimistic it can re-sign their starting quarterback.
Welcome to the Jets' new world. A year ago, it was spend and sign. This year, the cap room is almost dried up.
When the season ended, the Jets knew they'd be hard pressed t0 re-sign Ivory. Why? The usual reasons: Cap restraints, his age (28 on March 22), the devaluation of the running back position and so on. It wasn't a matter of if; it was just of matter of who and how much.
The answers: The Jaguars and an obscene amount of money. The official breakdown of Ivory's contract wasn't immediately available, but one source said it was north of $6 million a year. The APY ranks sixth among running backs, according to ESPN research.
No disrespect to Ivory, a tough, hard-working player who maximized a career year, but he's not worth $6 million a year -- at least not to the Jets. There are variables to consider, such as the amount of guaranteed money and the structure of the deal, but $6 million is $6 million.
Ivory is an older back with one 1,000-yard rushing season on his résumé and a history of nagging injuries. Coach Todd Bowles was so concerned about Ivory's sore knee leading into the Week 17 showdown at the Buffalo Bills that he took him out of the starting lineup and made him the third-down back.
The Jets had to let him go, and anybody who believes otherwise simply doesn't understand the economics of football.
The crazy part of Ivory's departure? Former Jets general manager John Idzik was the man behind the scenes in Jacksonville, pulling the strings. He's the Jaguars' assistant GM/cap expert. The smartest personnel move he made during his ill-fated, two-year tenure in New York was trading for Ivory in 2013 and signing him to a team-friendly contract -- $6 million over three years. Now he steals his guy from the Jets, except the bill is a whole lot bigger than the last time.
For the Jets, the question is, how do they respond? First, they need to re-sign Powell, but that's hardly a gimme. Powell has several suitors and there's a good chance he'll be a goner, too, throwing the Jets into a full-blown crisis at running back. The only experienced back under contract is Zac Stacy, and he's coming off a broken leg.
Even if Powell stays, the Jets will sign a veteran running back and look to add another in next month's draft. Bowles likes to go three-deep at the position, and right now he's knee-deep in uncertainty. Alfred Morris, an Ivory-style runner, is a possibility. He's 27 years old, and would be a good fit. Arian Foster could be a down-the-line option. There's always the draft. If Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott falls to the Jets, picking 20th, he'd be hard to pass up.
The inevitable free-agent exodus has commenced. Let's see how GM Mike Maccagnan responds.