Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, Preston Johnson and Tyler Fulghum, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 42)
Schatz: One of the most important precepts of football analytics is that defense is less consistent than offense from year to year. And there are plenty of reasons to believe the Patriots' defense is going to decline this year. Turnovers regress heavily to the mean, and the Patriots were extremely dependent on interceptions to put up their big defensive numbers in the first half of last season. In addition, the Patriots have lost more defensive talent than almost any team in history based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value. Combine that with the fact that the Miami offense might be a bit underrated -- Ryan Fitzpatrick was a shocking eighth in QBR last year -- and this over/under seems way too low.