ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays
Reason for optimism: A 2014 win-loss record that vastly understates Tampa Bay's production, has positioned the still sneaky-good Rays to steal the AL East.
Reason for pessimism: Loss of talent in the dugout is tough to quantify, but no one thinks Joe Maddon's departure is additive.
Thanks to the popularity of Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem, which states that a team's run differential is more indicative of its true talent level than its win/loss record, many casual fans of baseball (and all data-informed bettors on baseball), follow a team's run differential throughout the season. By that measure, the 2014 edition of the Rays performed to a 79- or 80-win level team. As the Rays won only 77 games last season, they are said to have been "unlucky" to the tune of at least two wins.
But that only begins to tell the story of Tampa's 2014 misfortune.