When the College Football Playoff selection committee compares teams on the giant flatscreen monitors in its meeting room, contenders are listed with their schedules. Weaker opponents are indicated with a bright red box highlighting the date of the game, and ranked and stronger opponents stand out with a bright green box.
The committee has no trouble quickly identifying who played a tough schedule, and it starts in September -- long before members even begin to meet.
Each team has a sheet with an entire section dedicated to schedule strength. Though it's certainly not the only factor the group considers, it's a major part of the discussions every season for the past decade. That will continue in the 12-team playoff, and while it can affect the seeding for the top teams, it will also be used to help determine the seven at-large teams.
A nonconference loss doesn't mean a team is doomed -- especially in this more forgiving 12-team field that rewards the five highest-ranked conference champions. But a win? That could be the boost a contender needs to earn a spot in the field -- just like Texas got last year by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Can the Longhorns' Sept. 7 win against Michigan loom just as large?
Below we'll look at this season's biggest nonconference winners so far, and how it will impact Selection Day.
We'll also predict how the committee would rank the top 12 teams after Week 3. The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking, of course. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
So here's our third prediction of the season for how the committee would rank -- not seed -- the top 12 teams, plus our 10 most impactful nonconference games (so far).
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10 impactful nonconference wins
Ranking the top 12
