Four weeks ago in Missoula, a crowd of 27,340 watched Montana State play keep-away. Montana had just cut Montana State's lead to 31-28 with seven minutes remaining in a game that had already seen five lead changes. With one more stop, the Grizzlies would get the ball back with a chance to win and keep their unbeaten record intact.
Instead, the visiting Bobcats moved the chains five times, including on fourth-and-1 and third-and-4, and kneeled out their first win at Montana in seven years, earning yearlong bragging rights in the process.
Correction: monthlong bragging rights, actually. Plus home-field advantage for the rematch. On Saturday in Bozeman, Montana State will host Montana at Bobcat Stadium in the FCS semifinals, live on ABC. It's the first playoff edition of Brawl of the Wild. The winner will be a favorite to win its first national title since either 2001 (Montana) or 1984 (MSU). Ticket prices on the resale market have reached FIFA World Cup levels. It's going to be a sight.
It's also going to be only one of two semifinals, obviously. On Saturday evening, Villanova and Illinois State will face off in Philadelphia in a match of two more programs chasing either past glory (Villanova won the 2009 title) or near glory (ISU lost in the 2014 season's championship game). Illinois State's round-of-16 upset of North Dakota State opened up the FCS playoff bracket in a way we haven't seen in at least 15 years, and the Redbirds are two wins from fully capitalizing on the opportunity. But Villanova's defense has reached a new level of dominance in the postseason, and the Wildcats are slight favorites.
All four semifinalists rose to the occasion a week ago, but only two will make it to the finals in Nashville, Tennessee. Here's what you need to know about a spectacular pair of FCS semifinals.
Updated projections
ISU and Villanova have come through in the playoffs. After finishing the regular season with a dud of a home loss to Southern Illinois, ISU has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.5 points per game in three road wins. (A win Saturday would make the Redbirds the first FCS team to win four playoff road games.) Villanova has overachieved by 27.2 points per game in its run to the semis. Both teams have found a new gear, and one of them might keep right on overachieving against projections for two more games. But on paper, the winner will be a solid underdog in the title game in Nashville.
Here are the updated SP+ projections for the four remaining teams:
Home-field advantage gives Montana State the edge out west, and whoever wins in Bozeman will be favored in Nashville. But both Villanova and Illinois State have earned "Never tell me the odds" status.
Last week
We got only one down-to-the-wire quarterfinal last week, primarily because the eventual semifinalists all looked too good.
• On Friday night in Bozeman, an early burst of turnovers and touchdowns helped Montana State build a 24-0 lead before Stephen F. Austin could gather its footing. The Lumberjacks cut the deficit to 13 in the second half, but they could never make the stops they needed. MSU's Adam Jones and Julius Davis combined for 256 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, and the Bobcats saw out a 44-28 win.
• Down 14-0 early Saturday at Tarleton State, Villanova stiffened defensively and rallied to take its first lead on an 11-yard Pat McQuaide-to-Braden Reed touchdown early in the fourth quarter. TSU threatened late, but the Wildcats' Damill Bostic Jr. shoved TSU's Trevon West out of bounds on a fourth-down pass in the corner of the end zone, and West couldn't get a foot down. VU advanced with a 26-21 victory.
• Montana handled its business at home against South Dakota, thanks in part to two long touchdown passes from Keali'i Ah Yat to Michael Wortham and a 93-yard punt return from Drew Deck. The Griz also jumped out to a 24-0 lead, and while the Coyotes did finally get their offense going and cut the lead to 16, Montana scored twice late and cruised to a 52-22 win. Wortham had 244 yards from scrimmage.
• ISU won a track meet at UC Davis. Chris Taylor's 91-yard kick return and a 93-yard Tommy Rittenhouse-to-Daniel Sobkowicz touchdown pass highlighted a wild first quarter, and the Redbirds led 21-17 at halftime, then put the game away with a 21-0 second-half run. UCD scored twice late, and both teams topped 500 total yards, but Illinois State advanced comfortably, winning 42-31.
No. 3 Montana at No. 2 Montana State
Offenses controlled the first Montana-Montana State game of the year. Both teams averaged more than 6.0 yards per play and enjoyed quite a few drives of 50-plus yards. But late in the third quarter, MSU safety Caden Dowler, maybe the best defensive player in the FCS, picked off a deflected pass and took it 34 yards for a touchdown to give the Bobcats a sudden 24-21 lead.
Caden Dowler picks off Montana Grizzlies
On Montana's ensuing drive, Zac Crews blocked a 44-yard field goal attempt. Justin Lamson's 23-yard touchdown run gave MSU a 10-point lead, and the Bobcats survived down the stretch.
We could see a similar story in this one. Offenses should continue to create advantages, but big defensive or special teams plays could make the difference.
Offensive SP+ rankings: Montana second, MSU seventh
First-team all-conference selections (offense): MSU -- RG Titan Fleischmann (6-foot-4, 300 pounds, Jr.); Montana -- QB Keali'i Ah Yat (6-1, 200, So.), RB Eli Gillman (6-0, 208, Jr., Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year), TE Evan Shafer (6-5, 270, Sr.), LT Cannon Panfiloff (6-6, 294, Sr.), APB Michael Wortham (5-9, 190, Sr.).
A part-time starter as a redshirt freshman last season, Montana's Keali'i Ah Yat has been a breakout star in 2025. He has thrown for 3,819 yards and 32 touchdowns with just eight interceptions for Montana, and he's almost been overshadowed by his running back: Eli Gillman has produced 1,637 yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns. Throw in receivers Michael Wortham (1,129 yards and 10 touchdowns, plus a 25.5-yard kick return average) and Drew Deck (404 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a 15.5-yard punt return average) and you have a team that can score in all sorts of ways. Montana averages 42.3 points per game (third) and 464.9 yards per game (fourth) and has somehow raised the bar in the playoffs.
MSU isn't quite as explosive but knows itself awfully well. With new offensive coordinator Pete Sterbick calling plays and former Stanford quarterback Justin Lamson taking over behind center, the Bobcats have maintained a strong dual-threat identity: They average 234.1 rushing yards and 202.1 passing yards per game. Julius Davis, Adam Jones and Lamson all average more than 10 carries per game, and Davis and Jones have combined for 2,284 yards from scrimmage. Taco Dowler is the go-to out wide, and Dowler (13.6 yards per punt return) and Jabez Woods (29.3 yards per kick return) bring the requisite threats in special teams. (There are so many good return men in the FCS.)
Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU sixth, Montana 35th
First-team all-conference selections (defense): MSU -- NT Paul Brott (6-3, 300, Sr.), edge Kenneth Eiden IV (6-1, 250, Sr.), SS Caden Dowler (6-0, 205, Sr., Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year); Montana -- DE Hunter Peck (6-2, 252, Sr.), LB Peyton Wing (6-0, 229, Jr.)
Montana has more offensive upside, but MSU is favored because of defense. The Bobcats have allowed 14.5 points per game against FCS competition, and only South Dakota State and Oregon have topped 28 points. The run defense is strong, but the pass defense is scary and opportunistic: The Bobcats have allowed just 9.0 yards per completion against FCS opponents, with 29 sacks and 15 interceptions to just 14 TDs allowed. Caden Dowler is the star at the back -- a Caleb Downs for the FCS -- but seven other Bobcats have picked off at least one pass, and five have recorded at least three sacks, led by Kenneth Eiden IV (8.5 sacks among 14 TFLs).
Montana's pass defense is a bit more aggressive than MSU's, with more sacks (31) and a lower completion rate allowed (57.9%), but big plays are an issue at times, and the Grizzlies allow nearly 400 yards and 24 points per game. Montana's path to victory will probably require strong red zone play -- it gives up touchdowns on just 60% of opponents' red zone trips -- and a couple of big plays from Peyton Wing, who is both the team's best blitzer (4.5 sacks, 4 hurries) and a great coverage guy (4 INTs).
DraftKings projection: Montana State 30.25, Montana 26.25 (MSU -4, over/under 56.5 points)
SP+ projection: Montana State 32.7, Montana 29.2
Even by rivalry standards, Brawl of the Wild has been streaky through the decades, and Montana State has won seven of the past nine games in the series, taking charge of the rivalry under first Jeff Choate, then Brent Vigen. This is the Bobcats' fifth FCS semifinal in that span, compared with only two for Bobby Hauck's Grizzlies. They should have a slight edge in Bozeman, but winning this one would be a pretty definitive way for the Griz to turn the tables, and it won't take many breaks to do so.
Illinois State at No. 9 Villanova
Neither Illinois State nor Villanova looked like a world-beater for much of 2025. The Redbirds began the season 4-3 and entered the playoffs just 21st in SP+ and as also-rans projected to lose in the first round. Villanova entered the playoffs 15th, having won eight in a row after a 1-2 start, but the Wildcats didn't really stand out offensively or defensively and managed only four first-team all-conference performers in a weak CAA.
Like their respective head coaches, however, the Redbirds and Wildcats proved their perseverance. Brock Spack, 63 years old and in his 17th season leading ISU, has produced five seasons with double-digit wins as well as 10 seasons with a 6-5 record or worse. Mark Ferrante, meanwhile, spent 30 years as a Villanova assistant before finally taking over in 2017, and he went just 21-18 in his first four seasons in charge before righting the ship.
Either Spack or Ferrante has a chance at the ultimate late-career breakthrough. And with these two in charge, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that their teams peaked late.
Offensive SP+ rankings: ISU 12th, Villanova 27th
First-team all-conference selections (offense): Villanova -- LT Stephane Voltaire (6-5, 315 pounds, Sr.), LG Temi Ajirotutu (6-5, 310, Sr.), KR Ja'briel Mace (5-9, 175, So., CAA Special Teams Player of the Year); ISU -- WR Daniel Sobkowicz (6-3, 205, Sr.), LT Jake Pope (6-7, 300, Sr.)
ISU's offense is built around experience and adaptability. Twelve players on the two-deep have started at least 20 games in their career, and eight will have topped 40 on Saturday. That includes quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse (3,006 yards, 34 TDs) and left tackle Jake Pope, the anchor of an FBS-sized offensive line with starters averaging 6-5 and 311 pounds. The Redbirds can lean heavily on an efficient run game (Victor Dawson is averaging 21 carries per game in the playoffs), or they can hit you deep with passes to Daniel Sobkowicz and Luke Mailander (combined: 113 catches, 1,639 yards, 20 TDs).
Villanova's lineup is a mix of veterans and key youngsters. Seven seniors are listed as starters, but RBs Ja'briel Mace (sophomore) and Isaiah Ragland (redshirt freshman) have combined for 1,845 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns, and Mace doubles as a terrifying return man (33.7 yards per kick return, two TDs). The Pat McQuaide-to-Luke Colella combination, meanwhile -- graduate to graduate -- was prolific early in the season when the run game was finding its footing, and Colella, a Princeton transfer, has perked back up in the playoffs, with 142 yards in the past two games.
Defensive SP+ rankings: Villanova seventh, ISU 34th
First-team all-conference selections (defense): Villanova -- LB Shane Hartzell (6-0, 230, Sr.); ISU -- LB Tye Niekamp (6-3, 240, Jr., Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year), CB Shadwel Nkuba II (6-1, 190, Sr.)
Harvard hadn't scored fewer than 27 points all season, and Lehigh hadn't scored fewer than 21. They combined for 14 points against Villanova. Tarleton State came in averaging 43.5 points per game and couldn't even score half of that. VU allowed a solid 22.6 points per game in the regular season, but the Wildcats have ratcheted things up spectacularly in the playoffs, thanks primarily to a dynamite pass rush (8 sacks) and total money-down dominance: Three good offenses have combined to go just 9-for-32 on third downs (28.1%) and 2-for-7 on fourth (28.6%). Linebacker Shane Hartzell has made 17.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks in his past 11 games, and redshirt freshman Omari Bursey has enjoyed a playoff star turn, with 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in three games.
ISU's defense is hit-and-miss but can force mistakes in droves. The Redbirds were incredible in Fargo, holding North Dakota State to 179 total yards and 2-for-13 on third downs and somehow driving an upset despite five Rittenhouse interceptions. And while they allowed more than 500 yards last week against UC Davis, they also forced two second-half turnovers that allowed the offense to take command. Middle linebacker Tye Niekamp (150 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 7 passes defensed) is the planet around which the entire defense orbits, but corners Shadwel Nkuba II and Cam Wilson (combined: 7 INTs, 18 breakups) are dynamite ball hawks.
DraftKings projection: Villanova 27.0, Illinois State 25.5 (VU -1.5, over/under 52.5 points)
SP+ projection: Villanova 29.5, Illinois State 24.9
Villanova has won 20 straight home games, and ISU has won 14 of 15 on the road. It's almost impossible to get a read on which late-peaking team might have the edge, and it's a damn shame that one of them won't make the final. The numbers lean toward the Wildcats, but numbers haven't been worth much with these two teams in the playoffs.