The finish line for the NBA season is in sight. With only five days remaining in the regular season, there are still a lot of unanswered questions about playoffs and play-in seeding in both conferences. The teams still fighting for position should be more motivated, but they also have to balance the desire for better seeding with the need to enter the postseason fresh. There are eight games on tap Wednesday night, so let's dig in and find some opportunities for teams or players to outperform expectation.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) over Denver Nuggets (even).
In the marquee game of the day, the two teams vying for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference face off for the last time this season. The Timberwolves lead the series 2-1, and the one Nuggets win was by only three points. The two most recent games, a Nuggets win and a Wolves' 13-point win in Denver, came with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) out of the lineup. I expect this one to be competitive, so I'll take the points. BPI agrees, with the Nuggets as a slight 1.8-point favorite that is well within the 5.5-point spread.
LA Clippers (+4.5) vs. Phoenix Suns (-115).
The Clippers are approaching the end of the season on a positive swing, despite Kawhi Leonard (knee) having missed the past five games. The Clippers have won four of those games, and seven of their past eight overall to take a strong grip on the fourth seed out West. The Suns, meanwhile, have lost two straight games, including a 13-point loss to the Clippers on the first half of their back-to-back Tuesday night. BPI projects the Clippers as the winners outright by an estimated margin of 2.1 points.
San Antonio Spurs (+15.5) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-110).
The Spurs have long been deep in the lottery picture and are even considering sitting Victor Wembanyama on Wednesday night, but their players are still playing hard to put some good work on tape going into the offseason. While the Thunder still have motivation to win, only a game out of the top seed, they also are trying to go into the playoffs healthy. Oklahoma City only has one win by more than 15 points in their past 10 games, and defeated the 19-win Hornets by only three points earlier this week.
Brandon Miller over 19.5 points (-105).
Miller is finishing his rookie season on a high note, averaging 21.7 PPG over his past nine games with at least 20 points scored in six of those nine games. He faces a Hawks squad on Wednesday that has allowed 23.3 PPG to opposing small forwards, the second-highest mark in the NBA.
RJ Barrett over 22.5 points (-115).
Barrett has scored at least 22 points in six straight games and 10 of his past 11 games, averaging 23.5 PPG over that span. He faces a Nets squad on Wednesday that has allowed 23.0 PPG to opposing power forwards, tied for the 13th most in the league. The Nets will be without Dorian Finney-Smith, their best defensive power forward, so Barrett will have an added opportunity to be aggressive.
Projections and injury reports
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 27-52 (37-42-0)
Cavaliers: 46-33 (36-42-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-18.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+1300), Cavaliers (-3000)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 18.4, straight up 95%, 219.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Jake LaRavia, (GTD - Ankle); John Konchar, (GTD - Heel); Lamar Stevens, (GTD - Groin); Luke Kennard, (GTD - Knee); Santi Aldama, (GTD - Foot); Vince Williams Jr., (GTD - Knee); Yuta Watanabe, (GTD - Personal); Desmond Bane, (OUT - Back); Jaren Jackson Jr., (OUT - Quadriceps); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Finger)
Cavaliers: Sam Merrill, (GTD - Neck); Dean Wade, (OUT - Knee); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 19-60 (32-47-0)
Hawks: 36-43 (28-51-0)
Line: Hawks (-10.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Hornets (+425), Hawks (-600)
BPI Projection: Hawks by 11.2, straight up 83%, 238.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Amari Bailey, (GTD - Illness); Cody Martin, (OUT - Ankle); LaMelo Ball, (OUT - Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT - Back); Seth Curry, (OUT - Ankle)
Hawks: Jalen Johnson, (GTD - Ankle); Seth Lundy, (GTD - Ankle); Trae Young, (GTD - Finger); AJ Griffin, (OUT - Ankle); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Saddiq Bey, (OUT - Knee)
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 25-54 (34-45-0)
Nets: 31-48 (33-42-4)
Line: Nets (-10.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Raptors (+360), Nets (-500)
BPI Projection: Nets by 7.6, straight up 76%, 225.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Raptors: Chris Boucher, (GTD - Knee); D.J. Carton, (GTD - Ankle); Gradey Dick, (GTD - Groin); Immanuel Quickley, (GTD - Rest); Scottie Barnes, (OUT - Hand); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT - Finger); Jontay Porter, (OUT - Personal)
Nets: Cameron Johnson, (GTD - Toe); Jacob Gilyard, (GTD - Hip); Nic Claxton, (GTD - Ankle); Dennis Smith Jr., (OUT - Hip); Dorian Finney-Smith, (OUT - Knee); Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg); Keita Bates-Diop, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 49-30 (48-31-0)
Heat: 44-35 (39-38-2)
Line: Mavericks (-4.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Mavericks (-165), Heat (+140)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 0.5, straight up 52%, 225.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Greg Brown III, (GTD - Personal); Josh Green, (GTD - Ankle); Dereck Lively II, (OUT - Knee)
Heat: Terry Rozier, (GTD - Neck); Tyler Herro, (GTD - Rest); Duncan Robinson, (OUT - Back); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 46-33 (49-30-0)
Bucks: 48-31 (34-45-0)
Line: Magic (-1.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Magic (-110), Bucks (-110)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 5.2, straight up 67%, 237.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Magic: Franz Wagner, (GTD - Ankle)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Calf); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD - Ankle)
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Spurs: 20-59 (41-37-1)
Thunder: 54-25 (43-35-1)
Line: Thunder (-15.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Spurs (+900), Thunder (-1800)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 15.1, straight up 90%, 239.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Cedi Osman, (GTD - Ankle); Dominick Barlow, (GTD - Knee); Keldon Johnson, (GTD - Foot); Victor Wembanyama, (GTD - Rest); Charles Bassey, (OUT - Knee); Devin Vassell, (OUT - Foot); Jeremy Sochan, (OUT - Ankle)
Thunder: Gordon Hayward, (GTD - Lower Leg)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
10 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 55-24 (40-36-3)
Nuggets: 55-24 (36-41-2)
Line: Nuggets (-5.5) Total: 212.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+190), Nuggets (-220)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 1.8, straight up 56%, 225.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (GTD - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD - Knee)
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD - Foot); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee)
Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 46-33 (35-43-1)
Clippers: 51-28 (38-41-0)
Line: Suns (-4.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Suns (-175), Clippers (+150)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 2.1, straight up 58%, 234.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Jusuf Nurkic, (GTD - Ankle); Damion Lee, (OUT - Knee)
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (OUT - Thumb); Moussa Diabate, (OUT - Hand); James Harden, (GTD - Foot); Joshua Primo, (GTD - Ankle); Kawhi Leonard, (GTD - Knee)