The 2024 season has been unlike anything we have seen in NFL history. Four teams have been favored by at least a touchdown this season. All four have lost. It's the first three-week span in the Super Bowl era in which zero teams favored by at least seven points have won.
That has led to unprecedented eliminations in Eliminator Challenge. Through Week 3, only 5.5% of entries are still alive. Over 77% of entries were knocked out last week as four of the five most-selected teams lost.
It's not just the seven-point favorites, either. Teams favored by at least 5.5 points are just 6-10 outright this season, the first time they've had a losing record through Week 3 in the Super Bowl era.
That leads us to Week 4. Do you ride the wave this season and avoid the big favorites? Or do you bet on regression and historical trends and take the teams "most likely" to win? This week, three teams are favored by at least a touchdown, and all three make a lot of sense.
But if this season has told us anything, no favorite is safe.
Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Top picks
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
One of the best betting trends this century has been to fade teams coming off a big underdog win when they are big underdogs again the following week. The Broncos fit that role this week after upsetting the Buccaneers. They are playing their second straight road game, while the Jets are well rested coming off a Thursday night blowout win.
It's the Jets' biggest favorite role on paper this season, according to ESPN Analytics (fourth biggest for Mike Clay), and it's tied for their biggest favorite role in a decade. While the 49ers may have a slightly better chance to win, they are being selected at a much higher rate so far this week, so the Jets could provide some leverage if the 49ers lose.
ESPN BET line: Jets -7.5 (-360 money line)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 70%
Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected
San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots
This is the largest point spread this season, and it's the 49ers' largest projected favorite role all season, according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. The 49ers are the safest choice on paper this week. However, the 49ers are banged-up on offense, with even Brock Purdy popping up on the injury report this week. The Patriots have extra time to prepare after a bad loss.
Last season, six underdogs of at least nine points won outright. Four of them had extra time to prepare. There should be more weeks to use the 49ers when they are healthier down the road, especially if they are a very popular pick this week.
ESPN BET line: 49ers -10 (-525 money line)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 77.2%
Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars' blowout loss on Monday caused a major shift in the betting market in this game, with the Texans moving from 4.5-point favorites all the way up to 7. There's a gap between the ESPN Analytics model and Mike Clay's model with the Texans. ESPN Analytics gives the Texans a 61% chance to win, but Clay gives them a 79% shot. It's Houston's biggest favorite role all season, according to Clay. The Texans are also being under-selected for how big of a favorite they are, with just 3% of early entrants clicking them.
ESPN BET line: Texans -7 (-300 money line)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 61%
Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected
Other options
4. Cincinnati Bengals (at Carolina Panthers)
5. Dallas Cowboys (at New York Giants)