First place in the SEC will be up for grabs when the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies host the No. 8 LSU Tigers on Saturday night.
Texas A&M (+105 to make the College Football Playoff) is 4-0 in conference play and has won six straight after dropping its season opener to Notre Dame. LSU (-115), also on a six-game winning streak after losing its first game to USC, is right behind at 3-0 in conference play. Both teams are 6-1 overall.
The Tigers head into Kyle Field as 2.5-point underdogs to the Aggies. Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: A&M -2.5
Money line: A&M -135, LSU +115
Over/under: 54.5 (Over -105/Under-115)
First-half spread: A&M -0.5 (-110), LSU +0.5 (-110)
First-half money line: A&M -140, LSU +110
First-half total points: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: No. 14 Texas A&M -2.5 vs. No. 8 LSU
LSU's offense, while potent through the air (ranked seventh in passing with 324 YPG), struggles on the ground (81st in rushing, 128 YPG). And A&M's defense has been stout, recording at least seven tackles for loss in four consecutive games while matching its season high with 11 in its most recent outing.
The Aggies' ability to penetrate the backfield could disrupt LSU's offense and force Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier into mistakes -- hurried throws, sacks, etc. By consistently stopping the run and creating negative plays, Texas A&M can force LSU into predictable passing situations, allowing its defense to put more emphasis on its pass rush and coverage.
Offensively, the Aggies have a dominant rushing attack, scoring eight rushing touchdowns in their past two games alone, and can potentially exploit an LSU run defense graded 42nd by PFF. South Carolina put up 243 rushing yards and four rushing scores earlier this season against the Tigers. If A&M is able to utilize its run game and be efficient on third down, the Aggies can control the game's tempo, wear down LSU's defense and limit the Tigers' offensive possessions.
Success in the run game would also facilitate opportunities in the passing game for the Aggies. In his two games back since suffering a shoulder injury, A&M quarterback Conner Weigman has displayed impressive accuracy, completing 70% of his passes. This precision could come in handy against an LSU secondary that ranks 112th in defensive success rate against the pass.
While Texas A&M's overall passing statistics might not be stellar, Weigman's recent performance and the favorable matchup against LSU's weak pass defense bode well for the home team. Combined with a top-tier defense and potent ground game, the Aggies appear well positioned to control this matchup and cover the spread.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Alabama is 15-1 SU and 7-9 ATS after a loss since 2010 (three straight ATS losses), with the under hitting 12 times.
Alabama is 11-6-1 ATS at home since 2022, tied for 10th in FBS over that span.
Missouri is 5-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, fifth best in FBS over that span.
Missouri is the only SEC team winless ATS in conference play (0-3) this season and is 3-1 ATS in all other games.
Alabama is 0-3 ATS in its past three games, The Tide haven't lost four straight ATS since Sept.-Oct. 2007.
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