With georelocation on the horizon, the Overwatch League will bid the Blizzard Arena goodbye in September. The final matches played in Burbank will be the 2019 season playoffs, which begin Friday with play-ins. Here's a preview of the play-in teams vying to move on to the double-elimination playoff bracket.
Chengdu Hunters
It's oddly fitting the playoff destiny of the Chengdu Hunters ultimately fell to the San Francisco Shock rather than the Hunters themselves, given the fact that the Hunters have been their own worst enemy for the entirety of the season. They've also been their own and Chinese Overwatch's greatest champion, playing what they felt suited them best regardless of the prevailing meta while helping change the perception of Chinese players in the Overwatch League by winning.
Recall Week 1 of the season, when the Chengdu Hunters took on the Guangzhou Charge at the end of a remarkably long and messy day of Overwatch. Then, the Hunters were expected to be beaten fairly handily by the Charge. They narrowly won with a 3-2 scoreline, and flex tank player Ma "LateYoung" Tianbin's words echoed well past the dwindling audience left at the Blizzard Arena at 11 p.m.
"We are ready to let the world see China again," he said.
Now the Hunters will face off against the Charge to see who will advance through the play-ins and earn a spot in the double-elimination playoff bracket. It's a tall task. Calculating the Hunters' chances of advancing far in the playoff bracket is decidedly difficult. The Charge are up there with the best teams in the league following the 2-2-2 role lock, while the Hunters have looked, well, about the same actually. Rather than swapping to Mei or Reaper-Mei combinations, Chendu have stuck to their signature style of running Pharah-Mercy, Sombra and Doomfist or Genji with the Chengdu staple of main tank Ding "Ameng" Menghan on Wrecking Ball.
ICYMI: The 2020 Overwatch League schedule is out.
Shanghai Dragons
The Shanghai Dragons were riding high coming into Stage 4. Although their winning compositions were often triple-DPS with Jin "Youngjin" Young-jin, Yang "DDing" Jin-hyeok and Bae "Diem" Min-seong on their comfort picks of Doomfist, Pharah and Widowmaker, Shanghai was tapped to remain one of the strongest teams despite being limited to two DPS heroes in the 2-2-2 role lock. Instead, they had a 1-6 stage with an abysmal minus-11 map differential.
Shanghai's struggles lie not in the capability of their players -- their players are still as good as they were when they won the Stage 3 title -- but in their hero pools. With the role lock in place, the Dragons are forced into abandoning one of the DPS heroes that they would want to flex onto when at a deficit. For example, if they want to run Mei-Reaper and flex onto the more comfortable Pharah-Doomfist with DDing and Youngjin, they forgo using Diem's formidable Widowmaker. They have not been successful with DDing on the Mei and also haven't found a composition they can run to counter opposing Meis or Mei-Reaper duos.
Against the Philadelphia Fusion, the Dragons will have to find better coordination around what two DPS they want to run and hope the meta shifts away from such a Mei-heavy focus or find something they're comfortable with to counter the Mei combinations.
Philadelphia Fusion
Going into Stage 4 and the 2-2-2 role lock, the Philadelphia Fusion were tapped as one of the teams that would benefit tremendously from the change. Philadelphia's triple-triple/GOATS performances were inconsistent at best, and a double-sniper meta shift accompanied DPS duo Lee "Carpe" Jae-hyeok and Josh "Eqo" Corona all the way to the inaugural season finals last year. A similar meta was likely to form following the 2-2-2 role lock, and whispers of double-sniper and dive filled the majority of pre-Stage 4 chatter.
Yet, Philadelphia remained inconsistent and shaky throughout the stage with a lot of near wins, near losses and even more fifth maps. Philadelphia did look their best toward the end of the stage against a similarly struggling Seoul Dynasty, so that's something to keep in mind heading into their play-in match against Shanghai. Eqo has been a stronger Mei than Shanghai's DDing, and the Fusion aren't facing a similar DPS conundrum as Shanghai. They'll keep Carpe in their lineup the entire time, whether Shanghai sends out Diem or not. Ultimately, barring a massive improvement from Shanghai, the Fusion to have the slight edge in their matchup with the Dragons.
Guangzhou Charge
While the Washington Justice have captured most of the narrative focus and headlines in Stage 4, the rise of the Guangzhou Charge is an interesting one. Anyone who had been waiting patiently for Lee "Happy" Jeong-woo's Widowmaker has been rewarded with the Charge's 6-1 Stage 4, led by Happy and Charlie "Nero" Zwarg.
Nero in particular has been fun to watch, making a name for himself as one of the best Meis in the league. It's difficult to track statistics around Mei that correlate to how effective a Mei player can be, but Nero's Mei is formidable due to his positioning, with strong wall placement and Blizzards for zone control. This allows the rest of his teammates to position themselves well, and their communication has looked surprisingly strong, at least from an outsider's perspective, when watching their positioning and ultimate timing as a team. With the role lock, it's impossible for the Charge to take full advantage of Choi "Hotba" Hong-jun's DPS flexibility -- Hotba seems to be able to play almost anything -- but his Roadhog has looked strong alongside Oh "Rio" Seung-pyo's Orisa. If the Charge can get past what is likely to be a messy first match against Chengdu, they should be favored to advance to the playoffs given their most recent appearances in Stage 4.
Seoul Dynasty
The biggest conundrum in making playoff predictions is that the game changed so drastically in Stage 4 due to the 2-2-2 role lock, that a lot of teams' prior performances in Stages 1-3 are rendered if not moot, then significantly less important. During this stage, Seoul have looked inconsistent at best and haven't adapted as quickly as one would have hoped. Seoul have talented DPS players in Kim "Fits" Dong-eun, Park "Illicit" Jae-min and, of course, Kim "Fleta" Byung-sun who saw more playing time toward the end of the stage as the team's Mei player.
Throughout the year, one of the more mysterious narratives surrounding Seoul was which lineup they would start and why. This is something to keep in mind going into the play-ins, with Seoul likely swapping through their DPS players. The past few matches have featured Fits, Fleta, main tank Hwang "Marve1" Min-seo, flex tank Choi "Michelle" Min-hyuk, and the support duo of Ryu "Ryujehong" Je-hong and Yang "Tobi" Jin-mo.
Seoul will have to face the higher seed coming out of the first play-in round, which means a tough matchup with Chengdu or the Charge, who have looked like the best team going into play-ins.
London Spitfire
"Will the London Spitfire show up today?" is a question that most viewers will be asking come the second round of play-ins on Saturday. London are certainly capable of not only winning their play-in match regardless of who they play, but also making a fairly deep playoff run due to the sheer amount of talent on their roster. Like Chengdu, London have a tendency to beat themselves more than other teams beat them.
That being said, the last time we saw London, they were soundly dispatched by the Atlanta Reign. Jeong "Erster" Joon's Mei shut down the DPS duo of Kim "Birdring" Ji-hyeok and Park "Profit" Joon-yeong. When returning to London's unexpected run through the inaugural season playoffs to become league champions, what stands out the most is the performance of London's tank line: Kim "Fury" Joon-ho and Hong "Gesture" Jae-hee. Birdring and Profit dazzled audiences with their DPS prowess due to the space created by Fury and Gesture. If London come up with another miracle run, it will come from the tank line first.
Predictions:
Chengdu Hunters vs. Guangzhou Charge: 3-1 Guangzhou Charge
Shanghai Dragons-Philadelphia Fusion: (Throws hands up in the air.) 3-2 Philadelphia Fusion