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What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games
By Derek Carty
With the trade deadline scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, you'll want to be poised near your computer to hit the waiver wire following any big news. Or, you could preemptively make some adds in case currently-irrelevant players find themselves in fantasy-worthy roles by the end of the day. A number of closers could be on the trade block, and the guys behind them may be worth rostering for a day (if you have the room) in the hopes of landing a free closer. San Diego's Robert Suarez (1%), Pittsburgh's Colin Holderman (1%), and Kansas City's Carlos Hernández (1%) would all be good choices.
If new Mets closer Brooks Raley (4%) is still available, you should go get him. There is a chance that he and/or Adam Ottavino (5%) are traded, however, and if both go, Drew Smith (sub-1%) could become one of the more valuable closers in fantasy.
With Sunday's trade of Jordan Hicks to Toronto, Giovanny Gallegos (7%) figures to see the save chances until Ryan Helsley (51%) returns from injury. Grab Gallegos for now, but Helsley could be back fairly soon, so if he's been dropped in your league, he may be worth a stash.
With the deadline looming, you should also keep an eye on any hitters on your roster that have been the subject of trade rumors. If someone like Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan India, Tim Anderson, Tommy Pham, or Jeimer Candelario is on your roster in a daily-moves league, you should have a backup option at the ready in case they are traded and scratched from their team's lineup.
Lance Lynn (67% rostered) makes his Dodgers debut on Tuesday, and if he's available in your league, you need to run and get him now. An ugly 6.47 ERA has him available in more leagues than he should be given his 10.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.02 xFIP. Lynn is old and boring, but he's still a well above average pitcher and will now get elite run support from the Dodgers. He gets a cake matchup against the A's on Tuesday and is not just one of the best options of the day (only Spencer Strider projects better via THE BAT X, and nobody else comes close to Lynn) but one of the best of the entire week. If he's been dropped in your league, go get him.
If Lynn is already gone, you can take a quick peek for Freddy Peralta (75%) against the Nationals before moving on to Hyun-Jin Ryu (5%). Ryu is a bit of a wild card coming off an injury that cost him most of 2022 and all of 2023 thus far, but historically he's been very good and is available almost everywhere. The matchup is just okay, but he's the next best option and is worth picking up to see how he looks. After throwing 85 pitches in his last rehab start, he shouldn't have any real volume limitations out of the gate.
The Padres are in Coors against Peter Lambert on Tuesday and are the clear best offense. Ha-Seong Kim (53%), Jake Cronenworth (62%), Trent Grisham (3%), and Luis Campusano (2%) all make for excellent streams.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Bullpen usage for Tuesday
Even though he appeared on the previous two days, last night San Francisco Giants closer Camilo Doval made it three in a row as he successfully preserved a 2-2 tie, striking out the side in the top of the ninth. His effort went for naught when the Arizona Diamondbacks prevailed 4-3 in 11 innings. Doval threw 18 pitches, giving him 63 since Saturday. The Giants will be in a bind as they try to even the series in the desert since Tyler Murphy has also pitched on three straight days while Taylor Rogers has appeared on three of the past four days. Tristan Beck is a sneaky add. He didn't pitch yesterday and can work multiple innings. Sunday was his first outing since coming off the IL and he fanned three in two frames against the Boston Red Sox.
After a rare misstep from Yennier Cano, Felix Bautista was asked to collect five outs, and he delivered his 29th save in the Baltimore Orioles 4-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Bautista entered the eighth inning with one out and runners on first and second. He retired the next two batters, but since he walked a pair in the ninth, Bautista ended with 35 pitches, which will likely keep him out of tonight's contest. Cano has worked on each of the previous two days, so he's also due for an off day. Bryan Baker is the best candidate to handle late innings duties.
Ryan Pressly has appeared four times over the past week, including hurling 13 pitches last night to garner his 25th save. Pressly was working with two days of rest, so he could come back tonight, but the Houston Astros just fortified their bullpen with Kendall Graveman. Graveman did not appear yesterday, so even if he isn't asked to close, he's a solid addition with a chance for a save in tonight's tilt with the Cleveland Guardians.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 10%) vs. Ryan Weathers
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 43%) vs. Weathers
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 10%) vs. Weathers
Jurickson Profar (COL, LF -- 9%) vs. Weathers
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 25%) vs. Weathers
Luis Campusano (SD, C -- 2%) at Lambert
Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B -- 0%) vs. Weathers
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 58%) at Strider
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 55%) at Valdez
The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
San Diego Padres at Peter Lambert
Colorado Rockies vs. Ryan Weathers
Chicago Cubs vs. Ben Lively
Prop of the Day
Freddy Peralta 16.5 pitching outs (-120/-115).
THE BAT sees Peralta putting up 18.6 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 66.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.84.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
The Washington Nationals projected batting order ranks as the third worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Nationals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are them as the third-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the seventh-worst park in Major League Baseball for walks.
Peralta's fastball velocity has risen 1.9 mph this year (93.9 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled.
The Nationals have six batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Peralta.