In case you were wondering who was that dazzling flamethrower in the pinstriped jersey with camouflage lettering at Citi Field on Monday, don't worry, you're not alone.
He sure did look familiar, didn't he? Perhaps a pitcher we've seen before, maybe from back during the 2015 season?
Matt Harvey celebrated his triumphant return to fantasy glory with seven shutout innings of two-hit baseball against the Chicago White Sox, but such a statement is less about the box score and more about pitch performance. Specifically, Harvey's fastball velocity suddenly and unexpectedly returned; his slider also showed hints of recapturing its past movement and effectiveness, albeit in an extremely small sample.
If you've been closely following the Harvey saga, by now you probably understand how important velocity is to his arsenal. He has averaged 95.4 mph with his fastball, has a 97.3 mph 90th percentile velocity and has thrown 72 pitches (or 4.7 percent of his total fastballs) at least 98 mph during his career. Harvey averaged 95.5 mph with his fastball on Monday; that was his highest single-game number since Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, when he averaged 95.6 mph.
It's no coincidence, therefore, that those two games -- Monday's and World Series Game 5 -- were Harvey's last two to begin with seven scoreless frames. A quick scan through his career history suggests the "magic number" for Harvey's fastball velocity is 94 mph. Breaking down his pitches into those thrown at least as fast or faster than that, and those thrown slower than that, here is his performance in a few key categories:
{C}
For those quick to point out the strikeout rate of Harvey's sub-94 mph fastballs in 2015, keep in mind how the sample is precariously small: That's only 113 total pitches. To put that into perspective, Harvey has already thrown 260 fastballs slower than 94 mph this season, in 18 fewer starts. In addition, combining all these rates and then comparing -- we'll use wOBA in this example -- Harvey has a .282 wOBA allowed on pitches 94 mph or faster since the beginning of last season and a .436 wOBA allowed on pitches slower than 94 mph. That 154-point differential is third largest among qualified pitchers, behind only Danny Duffy and Sonny Gray.
What does all that mean? Simple: If the Harvey we saw on Monday is the real deal, then the potential top-10 fantasy starter we drafted in the preseason has returned.
Chances are, he is and he therefore has, though one start is far from an ironclad guarantee, especially since Harvey's sudden fastball velocity return wasn't exactly predictable. As we're still learning why velocity can fluctuate so rapidly, as well as whether a pitcher can recapture it over time, there's no saying the Harvey of April 3-May 24 won't be the one who takes the mound on Sunday.
Me? I think he's back.
The return of Justin Verlander's K's
That's not to say all pitchers who lose velocity are suddenly doomed to a career of ineffectiveness. Sure, many never recovered -- Tim Lincecum immediately comes to mind, though he'll get another chance, soon enough, with the Los Angeles Angels -- but Verlander's past calendar year stat line is an example of one who did:
25 starts, 20 quality starts, 3.04 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.81 K's per nine
Remarkably, Verlander has done this despite showing career-low fastball velocity numbers in 2016: His 92.3 average, 94.2 90th percentile and 97.2 maximum all represent his worst numbers in any single year. Still, his fastball has generated its highest swing-and-miss rate in any year for which our pitch-tracking tool has data (2009 forward). Part of the reason for his success: Verlander is leaning more upon his slider, throwing it nearly 20 percent of the time, earlier in counts while finishing with his fastball. Verlander's arsenal has clearly shifted to compensate for his inability to dial up his fastball close to 100 percent, and it's working.
{C}
That's not to say the Cy Young version of the Detroit Tigers right-hander has returned -- a top-15 ranking is probably out of the question -- but he's a member of that second or third tier (depending on how you divide up the position).
Amazing Mazara
Nomar Mazara made one of the week's most sizable jumps in the rankings, thanks to a playing-time adjustment to my projections: I've got him with roughly 405 yet to come, up from the 345 I had him with a week ago. It certainly helped his case that in the past week, Mazara has hit the longest home run of the season, 491 feet on May 25, and two of the 50 longest homers, including his 448-foot shot on Monday.
That gives Mazara a projected 15 more homers to go along with a .285 batting average the rest of the way. Those are aggressive numbers but reasonable considering that, in his first 52 days in the bigs, he has an 8.5 percent swinging-strike rate (the big league average is 10.2 percent) and 18.6 percent miss rate on swings (average is 22.3 percent), showing his contact ability. Mazara has also hit lefties somewhat effectively with only minimal struggles against breaking pitches, two areas in which rookies commonly struggle, and there's little doubt that he should be a regular for the Texas Rangers going forward, even after Shin-Soo Choo's next return from the DL.
Even-more-amazing Murphy
Washington Nationals dual-eligible (second and third base) infielder Daniel Murphy continues to see his ranking soar week after week; it's clear that the adjustments he made while working with his former hitting coach, Kevin Long of the New York Mets, are paying long-term dividends. There's little doubt Murphy is now a top-50 overall fantasy player, and perhaps at No. 49, he's still ranked too low.
Previously a spot-on, .285-12-75-12 type of player, Murphy averaged a No. 117 overall Player Rater finish in his final four seasons in New York -- his peak ranking was 39th (2013) and lowest was 192nd (2015) -- but he's clearly taking aim for more power this season, and remarkably doing so at little expense to his contact rate. This season, Murphy's ground-ball rate has dropped to a career-low 30.1 percent; that's more than 13 percent lower than either his 2015 campaign (43.3 percent) or career numbers (43.7 percent). He has also boosted his hard-contact rate -- his well-hit average is swelling to .240 this season after .178 in 2015 and .194 in his career.
That's not to say Murphy should maintain a near-.400 batting average, and in fact, with his fly-ball rate as high as it is, he might struggle to bat even .300 the remainder of the year. Still, he's probably capable of a .290-plus mark and another 15-18 home runs.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Dustin Ackley (1B), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Alexi Amarista (2B), Christian Friedrich (SP), Steve Pearce (2B), Sean Rodriguez (2B), Adam Rosales (2B), Warwick Saupold (RP), Albert Suarez (RP), Ruben Tejada (3B), Ronald Torreyes (3B).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position.
Andres Blanco (1B, 8 games), Matt Carpenter (1B, 8 games), Daniel Castro (3B, 9 games), Christian Colon (2B, 9 games), Chase d'Arnaud (3B, 8 games), David Freese (1B, 8 games), Greg Garcia (3B, 8 games), Tony Kemp (OF, 8 games), Howie Kendrick (3B, 9 games), Sean Rodriguez (SS, 8 games), Ryan Rua (1B, 8 games), Luis Sardinas (SS, 8 games), Blake Swihart (OF, 9 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 9
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.