If a player's fantasy hoops value was a rough equivocation of his perceived real-life NBA value, our jobs would be cake. Life would be one long "Midseason Fantasy All-Stars" column.
Playoff performance would drive fantasy value. Championship rings accrued would drive fantasy value. Signing a big free agent contract would drive fantasy value. Points scored per game would drive a plurality of fantasy value. Draft position, defensive intensity, SportsCenter appearances, college program and market size would all drive fantasy value.
Here's the trick: all of those factors do drive fantasy valuation, but not in a constructive manner.
Instead, all of these factors combine to create noise. This noise begets variations in perceived fantasy value versus actual fantasy value.
The result is perpetually overrated players like DeAndre Jordan, perennially underrated players like Mike Conley and, more often than not, solid values such as Paul Millsap.
Winning in fantasy is simple. If you roster more undervalued players than your fellow owners ... you win. If you roster more overvalued players ... they win.
Don't get caught up in name value. Stick to the numbers.
Our job is to filter out the noise and focus only on eight or nine categories of statistical impact, and the factors that drive production in said categories.
We here at ESPN do an industry-leading job in pinpointing fantasy value. It's a fact. Our tried and true preseason rankings represent just how much work goes into creating a superlative Draft Kit. These rankings are saturated with projections you can take to the bank of your choice.
All the same, there's nothing wrong with a dollop of healthy disagreement. Every happy and well-adjusted family has the occasional behind-the-scenes pre-Thanksgiving argument.
More often than not, my disagreements with our preseason rankings are fueled by atypical positional production. Players at certain positions tend to simultaneously excel and disappoint in certain categories.
Point guards typically produce a surfeit of assists, 3s, steals and solid free throw percentages. They tend to suffer from a lack of rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. Centers typically produce a surplus of blocks, rebounds and boffo field goal percentages. They tend to lack in assists, steals and free throw percentage.
When players at certain positions deviate from these norms, they offer categorical surprises -- positive and negative.
Let's take a quick jaunt through my most underrated and overrated players this draft season.
Underrated players in the top 10
In the first round, every single slot counts. Just moving up or down a couple of draft slots can win or lose your league.
Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (ESPN Rank: 4)
I think we're overweighting the Kevin Durant effect on Curry's production. Curry is projected to drop about four points per game, less than one rebound per game and about a third of an assist per game.
If those predictions hold relatively true, I have Curry still at No. 2 overall (behind newly minted PG James Harden). Curry's otherworldly combination of 3-point production (projected 5.1 per game in 2016-17) and true shooting percentage (66.9 percent in 2015-16) could end up pushing him back into the top overall slot.
Curry is utterly dominant in 3-point production, double any other player in the NBA save for Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard. When a player can win a category on his own while delivering elite production in multiple surrounding categories -- especially while bolstering efficiency -- you can forgive drops in volume.
Hassan Whiteside, PF, Miami Heat (ESPN Rank: 13)
Whiteside is elite in two categories: rebounds and field goal percentage. Like Curry, he occupies a one-man tier in a single category. Whiteside nearly doubles the blocks potential of every other player in the NBA.
When you factor in that blocks are one of scarcer statistics in fantasy, Whiteside's fantasy value climbs into the top 10. His free throw percentage (.650 in 2015-16) is somewhat disquieting, but was a big improvement over the .500 he laid down in 2014-15.
Overrated players in the top 10
Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (ESPN Rank: 6)
I have Paul valued between No. 9 and No. 10 overall (in non-turnover leagues). I'm not projecting the drop based on possibility of injury. (For the purposes of this column, I'm assuming everyone stays reasonably ambulatory. If we got into whom we thought was going to get injured, this would turn into a different, darker column.)
Paul's drop is due to slight, predictable slides in three categories. Looking over his past three seasons, Paul is trending down ever so slightly in assists, steals and field goal percentage. As long as Paul stays around 10 assists per game, he's a top-10 player. But if, in his age-31 season, his steals rate starts dropping from 2.0 per night to 1.5 per night? That's a problem because the secret sauce in Paul's Hall Of Fame value has always marinated in his undervalued elite steals production.
Underrated players in the top 40
Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (ESPN Rank: 27)
As of this writing, Oladipo is a top-20 fantasy player. This isn't an educated guess. Over the last third of 2015-16, Oladipo quietly posted top-20 value.
He overcame a developmental situation in Orlando, slogged through inconsistent minutes and quietly built one of last season's most improved fantasy portfolios. Now Oladipo's going to ride shotgun next to Russell Westbrook? Reap all of the spacing Westbrook creates? Vacuum up the touches -- and open looks -- Kevin Durant left behind? (And yes. I know Durant will get even more space in Golden State, but I'm touting Oladipo here).
We're talking Westbrook lite, across-the-board fantasy value with no particular statistical weakness, elite steals and solid (for a SG) free throw percentage. Don't forget SG is looking particularly thin this draft season. If Oladipo eventually qualifies at PG as well -- another thin position -- it'll just be another subtle plus.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
If the sight of Jokic's minutes per game inching above 30 a night doesn't warm the cockles of your old and embittered fantasy heart, it's time to explore other hobbies. This young man doesn't have a single statistical flaw. Double-doubles, blocks, assists, steals, 3s, terrific percentages: Jokic contributes across the board. He qualifies at a position of scarcity. He's 2004 Andrei Kirilenko with some extra height.
Jokic has momentum -- not playoff momentum (an outlier); end of 2015-16 momentum that translated into Olympic momentum. Jokic is a top-30 player right now, end of story.
Overrated players in the top 40
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (ESPN Rank: 11)
In reality, Lillard and C.J. McCollum are a great basketball pair. In 2015-16, Lillard combined his 23.7 points, 7.1 assists, 2.8 3s and 4.4 rebounds with McCollum's 20.3 points, 4.0 assists, 2.5 3s, 3.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals to deserved acclaim.
Volume-based acclaim.
If you look a little closer, you'll notice Lillard is not the kind of player you want to overdraft. He's quietly inefficient.
He sports a scary .419 field goal percentage. Lillard's 3-point production (.375) doesn't effectively offset such a low field-goal percentage because Lillard takes (and misses) too many mid-range to long-range jumpers. His 3-point percentage is higher than his percentage from 3 to 15 feet. Almost 15 percent of his attempts are from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
A .419 field goal percentage. Lillard launches 20 shots a night. That's a lot of drag. The effect is enough to knock Lillard down by 8-10 draft slots.
Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (ESPN Rank: 23)
This isn't about "the punch." If I was folding in propensity toward injury and/or suspension, Griffin's actual value would drop by two full rounds. It isn't about his formerly atrocious, now merely mediocre free throw shooting. Griffin has improved at the line.
Griffin simply doesn't help out enough in the defensive categories to warrant a top-25 pick. A top-25 big man needs to chip in with at least a block and/or a steal per night. The once-gaudy points and rebounds are subtly trending downward.
Ignore the hype. Griffin is an early fourth-round pick.
Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (ESPN Rank: 25)
Horford is one of my most-drafted players of the past five seasons. Every year, he tends to a half round later than he should.
His being underrated stemmed from three factors: Being more of an efficiency guy, he excels in out-of-position production, and the Hawks' style tends to share the wealth up and down their lineup.
His 3.2 assists per game in 2015-16 was one of the best (for a center) in basketball. He emphasized 3-point production, shooting .344 percent from deep and converting 1.1 3s per game. While his overall FG% was over 50 percent, Horford also shot an atypical (for a big man) 80 percent from the line.
It's hard to be overhyped in Atlanta. After signing the second-biggest free agent deal of the summer, Horford is riding a wave of hype.
Now Horford's coming off a much ballyhooed free-agent deal. He's going to Boston, playing for "it" coach Brad Stevens and joining a team that should enter the season as the second-best team in the East.
A team with a very deep rotation. That's what gives me pause. While much of Horford's value is also efficiency based, you have to add some volume to give those ratios some weight.
The Celtics are deeper up front than the Hawks. Stevens' egalitarian system is not a good environment to add volume. Throw in that this is Horford's age-30 season, and you've looking at a player that's going to go 5-10 spots higher than he should.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (ESPN Rank: 34)
I don't buy that Love is line for a bigger role in the Cavs' offense. In reality, Love is a couple less rebounds per game away from becoming Ryan Anderson 2.0. For a guy ranked 34th overall, that's not a compliment.
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (ESPN Rank: 42)
DeRozan goes a little higher than he should because he's a points per game guy and a volume guy. In fantasy, his lack of 3-point production drags him down by about half a round.
Underrated outside of the top 40
D'Angelo Russell, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (ESPN Rank: 66)
Russell should be the biggest immediate beneficiary of playing in a post-Kobe Bryant universe. Kobe's last lap around the NBA after All-Star Weekend took attention away from Russell's second-half improvement.
Kobe's departure wasn't the only exodus that will benefit Russell. Byron Scott is also gone. Developing young upside is in. New coach Luke Walton is saying all the right things about Russell's role headed into the season. Still only 20, Russell's usage rate should take a nice leap from the 23.5 he posted during his (somewhat tumultuous) rookie campaign. I expect all of his volume-based numbers to improve, and his efficiency (13.22 rookie PER) has nowhere to go but up.