Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Jim McCormick, Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe.
Blake Griffin is expected to miss the next 3-6 weeks while recovering from arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his right knee. Should fantasy owners try to acquire him as a buy-low candidate? Is there a player his owners should add to assuage some of his lost stats?
Jim McCormick: The buy-low angle is all about your roster rules. If you have a deep enough bench, a designated injury slot or are in a roto league, it's fine -- and even wise -- to submit some two- or three-for-one offers for Griffin with complementary assets. In shallower formats that prove more demanding for roster space, like a competitive weekly leagues, it's difficult to endorse offers for Griffin.
This appears to be a maintenance procedure aimed at getting Griffin ready for a serious playoff run, but one that could linger past a month. This is my attempt at reading the tea leaves, but I think the team isn't as concerned about seeding, knowing they'll secure a high-end berth either way, so I do buy the cautious angle. The interim fantasy fallout is increased interest in Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan in daily fantasy competition, as Paul sees an uptick in usage and assist rate with Griffin's high-usage game off the court. Jordan, meanwhile, enters the Hassan Whiteside/Andre Drummond tier of elite rebounders when Griffin isn't there to help clean the glass.
As for commodities we can target to buffer the loss of Griffin in lineups, I actually don't mind adding Patrick Beverley at the moment. This seems strange, but he is enjoying career-best rebounding production, hovering around seven per game -- to match some of the rebounding lost with Griffin -- and his strong rates in steals and 3-pointers differentiates from Griffin's profile.
The big loss for most managers with Griffin is in the scoring department, so maybe the Suns' T.J. Warren is a viable path to replacement. Warren was dropped en masse due to a recent injury absence, and yet, he is sixth among forwards in points per touch and plays for one of the most fantasy-friendly schemes in the league.
Joe Kaiser: I'd look to trade for Griffin only if your team is able to stash him on the IR or overcome an empty roster spot for the next month or so, but if there's an owner willing to unload the star power forward for pennies on the dollar it's a risk worth taking. Griffin is averaging 21.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1 steal per game this season and is a top-35 fantasy option when healthy.
While Griffin is out, it will be up to veterans like CP3, Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick to carry the load on the offensive end of the court. Paul, in particular, should see his usage rate spike with Griffin out of the lineup.
The veteran Marreese Speights is another player to watch in all this, as his minutes have a good chance to rise. The thing to remember with Speights, though, is that he is more accustomed to coming off the bench and providing the Clips with a boost against opponents' backups, so it's important to temper expectations if he moves into the starting lineup or is asked to play more than 20 minutes a game. Speights' value comes as a scorer, rebounder and 3-point shooter -- the latter being something few could ever have envisioned prior to last season in Golden State.
Kyle Soppe: If you're confident in your ability to manage your roster, then yes, make a low-ball offer for Griffin and see where negotiations take you. The Clippers used the words "surgery" and "remove loose bodies" in their injury report, so by acting quickly, you can catch the Griffin owner in a state of panic.
Griffin possesses a rare blend of skills, and he should return for the second half of the season, so if you can acquire him for anything less than a top-50 player, I would take it. If you own him, I'd sit tight unless your team is in absolute shambles.
Robert Covington (available in 75 percent of ESPN leagues) and JaMychal Green (68 percent) are a pair of frontcourt players who aren't owned in enough leagues, and while they won't come close to equaling Griffin's production, they can fill the void in the short term.
Fun fact: The Clippers play nine games in the first round of playoffs in standard ESPN leagues. Yeah ... trading for Griffin is a long-term move, but it is one that could pay off in a big way for the patient owner.