Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Bradford Doolittle and ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe.
Prior to this season, Avery Bradley's career high in rebounds per game was 3.8 during the 2013-14 season. 28 games into this season, he is averaging a whopping 7.4 RPG and ranks 42nd per game on the Player Rater. Do you think this rebounding spike will last? Will he finish the campaign in the top 45 on the Player Rater?
Bradford Doolittle: Bradley is at No. 42 in the rater as of this morning, so he can't afford much of a slippage. There are a couple of areas that seem likely for regression. For one thing, I'm skeptical he can keep shooting 42 percent from deep. But he's 26 and having an age-appropriate career season, so you never know.
As for the rebounding, Bradley's defensive rebound rate is so far out of whack with his career averages that it seems like it has to come down. He has Boston's highest defensive rebounding percentage this season -- at 6-foot-2!
That said, the defensive rebound numbers may say as much about the Celtics' big men as it does about Bradley. Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk are actually up over last season, and Al Horford is at about the same level. Only Amir Johnson is getting a smaller slice off the defensive glass. So Bradley could keep getting those rebounds because somebody has to. Besides, it's a league trend that rebounds are becoming more evenly distributed by position. Here's a chart on that, comparing rebound distribution from this season to 30 years ago, per basketball-reference.com:
Joe Kaiser: Part of the reason for Bradley's spike in rebounds is that Al Horford missed much of November due to a head injury, leaving more rebound opportunities for the team's other players. That being said, Horford is averaging a career low in rebounds this season and Bradley hasn't stopped hitting the glass since the center returned to the lineup. In fact, Bradley continues to be the Celtics' leading rebounder.
Bradley came into the league regarded highly for is defense, then he made a noticeable improvement to his offensive game, and now this -- the rebounds. I expect for him to finish in the top 45 on the Player Rater or, at worst, just outside the top 45. Bradley's rise is for real.
Kyle Soppe: I think some regression is in store moving forward for Bradley. He's a solid player, but my belief is that he is a better NBA player than fantasy prospect, and I expect that to be the case the rest of the way. He will continue to give the C's solid minutes, but to finish among fantasy's 45 best players, there aren't going to be stat lines like what Bradley produced last night (just eight shots and three rebounds in 38 minutes of action).
As mentioned in the question, his current rebounding rate is far above his career average, and given that his scoring is 50 percent ahead of his career average, he'd have to sustain both of those rates to maintain his status as a fantasy star. He's a very good player, but I think we are looking at 16 points and 4 rebounds when all is said and done, as opposed to the 18 and 7.4 his owners have gotten up to this point.