Nail the first two picks in your fantasy basketball draft and everything has a much easier chance of falling into place. Miss on one or both of the selections, and it can become a serious grind in a hurry.
(If you need examples, oh, do I have them!)
Luckily, there is good news:The depth in the first two rounds this season is better than in season's past, and that means fantasy managers don't have to gamble trying to "hit a home run." It's actually possible to play it safely and still be able to build around a core of talented players who possess major upside.
All it takes is passing on the players who can ruin your season, and opting instead for the ones with a better chance of staying healthy, logging a heavy load of minutes and a high usage rate. Like I mentioned before, there are a lot of them.
Here are the riskiest players -- the ones to avoid or at least think twice about before selecting -- with an average draft position (ADP) inside the top 25 in ESPN Fantasy leagues:
Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets (11.2 ADP)
While few fantasy managers probably think of the 32-year-old Durant as an older player, the wear and tear is reason for concern if you're going to use a first-round pick to get him, particularly when you consider what he's gone through during the past 18 months. The ruptured right Achilles tendon he suffered in the 2019 NBA Finals is the most serious injury an NBA player can have, as DeMarcus Cousins knows all too well -- and KD hasn't played in a game since that day, June 10, 2019.
With 849 regular season games and 139 playoff games on his NBA resume, it's difficult to imagine him playing in both ends of back-to-backs or logging anywhere close to the 36.9 MPG he's averaged over the course of his 12-year career. Even if Durant looks like himself out there, plays around 30-32 MPG and appears in 80-90% of the Nets' games -- all best-case scenarios -- there are a number of other solid options in the same draft range (Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum) who offer similar upside with less risk.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks (12.7 ADP)
Young may seem like an odd choice to be on this list, especially given the way he took his game to new heights last season after finishing runner-up to Luka Doncic as Rookie of the Year in 2018-19. While logging only 4.4 more minutes a game from Season 1 to Season 2, he saw his scoring rise from 19.1 to 29.6 PPG, thanks to an improved FG%, FT% and 3FG%. He also dished out 9.3 APG, which ranked second in the league behind only LeBron James.
So why should fantasy managers give pause before selecting Young in the first round? Because the Hawks have loaded up with new additions and an improved roster. Young's 36.2 usage rate is set to fall with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic now in the fold, Clint Capela finally healthy and ready to go, Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn in the rotation, and De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish -- both top 10 picks in 2019 -- set to possibly see expanded roles in their second seasons. Young is a star, but he will have to share the load a lot more this season.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets (21.1 ADP)
Irving has missed 10 games or more in all but one of his nine NBA seasons, and this trend hasn't exactly improved in recent years. He played in only 127 of 164 games in his two seasons in Boston, and after signing the monster four-year, $136.5 million contract with the Nets before last season, he lasted only 11 games before going down with a shoulder injury. Then -- after a long layoff -- he played only nine more games before undergoing season-ending surgery.
When healthy, Irving is one of the top scorers in the game and a point guard who can help those in roto leagues with his efficient shooting, but the lack of durability and mediocre assist output (his 6.4 APG ranked 21st in the league last season) makes him too big a gamble in the second round.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans (22.9 ADP)
Williamson -- or should we just say "Zion"? -- has the name and the fanfare, but he still has much to prove to be worthy of being drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts -- especially in roto leagues. Even if you remove the concerns about his durability, with him being one of the heaviest players in the league as a rookie last season, his numbers leave many questions. Yes, he can score. We know that. His 22.5 PPG is impressive. And yes, he's super efficient from the field. His 58.3 FG% is huge for both roto and points leagues.
But what about the 0.6 3PG per game? And the 64.0 FT%. And the 2.1 APG, 0.4 BPG and 0.7 SPG. He's not going to help fantasy managers in any of those areas, and a low FT% is a crusher in all scoring formats, considering how often he gets to the line (7.4 FTA as a rookie). Even his rebounding wasn't as impactful as some might imagine (6.3 RPG). Williamson strikes me as someone who should be a fifth-round pick in points leagues and a seventh- or eighth-rounder in roto leagues, which shows how inflated his draft stock is right now.