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New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
What you need to know for Saturday's games
A five-game Saturday in the NBA tips off this afternoon in New York with the Brooklyn Nets hosting the Atlanta Hawks in the second of two matchups between these teams this week. Preparing for earlier games during the weekend can prove rewarding for fantasy managers seeking to maximize games played and with an aim on matching lineup updates with production expectations.
For instance, we know heading into the game that Atlanta won't have Trae Young or Onyeka Okongwu in rotation due to respective injuries, while Brooklyn is missing scoring microwave Cam Thomas. Fantasy fallout leads to increased interest in the Nets' Dennis Schroder (64.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) and Cameron Johnson (54.5%). For Atlanta, Saddiq Bey (24.7%) appears poised for a busier role as a perimeter threat.
The marquee event of the day features the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Denver Nuggets in a new chapter in a newfound rivalry of Western foes. The historic implications focus on LeBron James just nine points shy of becoming the first player to amass 40,000 regular season career points. It could be fun to pay attention to his first quarter scoring props. We'll want to keep an eye on Jamal Murray's injury status given a recent ankle ailment, as his absence would vault Reggie Jackson (6.5%) into relevance.
The rest of the slate is largely defined by a blend of younger or depleted rotations, such as tonight's meeting between the (young) Portland Trail Blazers and (depleted) Memphis Grizzlies. These teams played last night, so this unique back-to-back offers recent precedent that plays into our stream team endorsements below.
Saturday's Stream Team
This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day's action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men's basketball leagues.
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF, Nets (56.1%): Cam Thomas and his relentless, if even at times irrational, confidence won't be available today for Brooklyn. With more usage and shot volume at his disposal, it's notable that Johnson just popped off for 29 points against this very Hawks defense.
Vince Williams Jr., SG/SF, Grizzlies (29.6%): The Grizzlies don't have much depth after a season rife with impact injuries. This leaves Williams as a high-minute creator for this rematch with Portland. While he was a bit quiet last night, we can take stock in what is sure to be a busy workload.
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF, Lakers (12.2%): As a resident glue guy for the Lakers, Hachimura should be busy chasing around Aaron Gordon and fighting for the loose balls and long rebounds that can help sway such a matchup. Given his important spot in this rotation, Hachiumira could deliver a nice line.
Matisse Thybulle, SG/SF, Trail Blazers (2.6%): The Portland rotation isn't always stable or predictable, but it does appear worth putting some trust in Thybulle's ability to produce absurd defensive results given a recent rise in minutes and quality of play. Few players in the league can match his blend of steals and swats, especially from the wing.Teammate Jabari Walker (1.3%) is fresh from a double-double last night, albeit in limited playing time.
Projections and Injury Reports
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets3 p.m. ET Barclays Center, New York
BPI Projection: Nets in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Seth Lundy, (OUT - Back); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Trae Young, (OUT - Finger)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD - Leg); Cam Thomas, (OUT - Ankle); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Hawks projections:
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 38.9 FPTS (21.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF: 34.5 FPTS (15.9 pts, 8.2 reb, 3.7 ast)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 30.5 FPTS (17.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.1 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF: 25.4 FPTS (13.6 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 3PM)
De'Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 20.9 FPTS (12.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.2 ast)
Clint Capela, C: 20.9 FPTS (10.3 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.0 ast)
Bruno Fernando, C: 14.8 FPTS (7.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 0.9 ast)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 35.1 FPTS (21.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 26.7 FPTS (12.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 25.0 FPTS (12.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.1 ast)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 23.4 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Ben Simmons, PG/PF: 20.5 FPTS (6.7 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.3 ast)
Lonnie Walker IV, SG/SF: 20.0 FPTS (11.2 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Dennis Smith Jr., PG: 19.0 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.4 ast)
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat5 p.m. ET Kaseya Center, Miami
BPI Projection: Heat in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Walker Kessler, (GTD - Foot); Otto Porter Jr., (OUT - Not Injury Related)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Thumb); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Knee); Kevin Love, (GTD - Heel); Tyler Herro, (GTD - Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder); Dru Smith, (OUT - Knee)
Jazz projections:
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF: 40.9 FPTS (25.1 pts, 7.7 reb, 2.0 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 33.0 FPTS (17.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.3 ast)
John Collins, PF: 29.5 FPTS (15.3 pts, 9.1 reb, 1.5 ast)
Keyonte George, PG/SG: 26.7 FPTS (14.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Jordan Clarkson, SG: 26.5 FPTS (15.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.4 ast)
Taylor Hendricks, PF: 18.8 FPTS (9.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Walker Kessler, C: 18.1 FPTS (8.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.7 blk)
Heat projections:
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 40.1 FPTS (20.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.9 ast)
Bam Adebayo, C: 38.4 FPTS (20.1 pts, 9.9 reb, 4.5 ast)
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 35.3 FPTS (17.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 23.1 FPTS (10.7 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.2 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 22.6 FPTS (11.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.3 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 17.5 FPTS (8.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.5 ast)
Kevin Love, PF/C: 14.5 FPTS (5.1 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.3 ast)
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies8 p.m. ET FedExForum, Memphis
BPI Projection: Grizzlies in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Deandre Ayton, (GTD - Hand); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT - Elbow); Scoot Henderson, (OUT - Thigh); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT - Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (GTD - Achilles); Derrick Rose, (GTD - Back); Jaren Jackson Jr., (GTD - Quadriceps); John Konchar, (GTD - Thumb); Luke Kennard, (GTD - Illness); Scotty Pippen Jr., (OUT - Back); Desmond Bane, (OUT - Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Finger); Ja Morant, (OUT - Shoulder)
Blazers projections:
Anfernee Simons, PG/SG: 43.2 FPTS (25.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.5 3PM)
Jerami Grant, PF: 39.1 FPTS (24.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Toumani Camara, PF: 21.4 FPTS (10.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
Matisse Thybulle, SG/SF: 20.8 FPTS (5.9 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.3 ast)
Jabari Walker, PF: 19.0 FPTS (8.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.1 ast)
Kris Murray, PF: 18.7 FPTS (9.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
Duop Reath, C: 16.8 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.0 ast)
Grizzlies projections:
Vince Williams Jr., SG/SF: 31.6 FPTS (13.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.3 ast)
Ziaire Williams, SG: 25.8 FPTS (14.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.9 ast)
Santi Aldama, PF/C: 25.7 FPTS (12.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast)
GG Jackson, PF: 20.8 FPTS (12.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Luke Kennard, SG: 20.5 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Jordan Goodwin, PG/SG: 19.5 FPTS (10.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.1 ast)
Trey Jemison, C: 15.9 FPTS (7.9 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.2 blk)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers8:30 p.m. ET Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
BPI Projection: Lakers in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Ankle); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD - Personal); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Achilles); Cam Reddish, (GTD - Ankle); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Christian Wood, (OUT - Knee); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT - Foot); Colin Castleton, (OUT - Wrist)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 57.0 FPTS (26.3 pts, 13.0 reb, 8.0 ast)
Jamal Murray, PG: 33.9 FPTS (17.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 28.4 FPTS (14.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 25.9 FPTS (12.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.0 ast)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 20.0 FPTS (9.3 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.9 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 16.7 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 14.2 FPTS (7.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.2 ast)
Lakers projections:
LeBron James, SF/PF: 44.9 FPTS (24.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Anthony Davis, PF/C: 44.7 FPTS (23.6 pts, 12.7 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.0 blk)
D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 36.8 FPTS (19.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.2 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Austin Reaves, SG/SF: 31.8 FPTS (15.6 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.4 ast)
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 22.7 FPTS (13.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.0 ast)
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG: 17.7 FPTS (7.5 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.7 ast)
Taurean Prince, SF: 13.2 FPTS (6.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.0 ast)
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns9 p.m. ET Footprint Center, Phoenix
BPI Projection: Suns in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Suns: Bradley Beal, (GTD - Hamstring); Eric Gordon, (GTD - Groin); Nassir Little, (GTD - Knee); Damion Lee, (OUT - Knee)
Rockets projections:
Alperen Sengun, C: 39.3 FPTS (21.6 pts, 9.4 reb, 4.9 ast)
Fred VanVleet, PG: 32.7 FPTS (14.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 29.3 FPTS (14.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.5 ast)
Jalen Green, SG: 26.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Amen Thompson, SG: 20.5 FPTS (9.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.1 ast)
Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 19.9 FPTS (11.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.5 ast)
Cam Whitmore, SF: 19.1 FPTS (11.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 0.7 ast)
Suns projections:
Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 48.5 FPTS (29.4 pts, 6.9 reb, 6.2 ast)
Devin Booker, PG/SG/PF: 47.2 FPTS (28.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.1 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 27.0 FPTS (11.6 pts, 9.0 reb, 3.5 ast)
Grayson Allen, SG: 25.6 FPTS (11.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Royce O'Neale, SF: 20.4 FPTS (7.9 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Eric Gordon, SG/SF: 19.3 FPTS (10.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Bol Bol, PF/C: 14.7 FPTS (6.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 0.9 ast)