While Year 3 seems to be when a lot of NBA players get credit for taking a big leap, fantasy managers shouldn't sleep on second-year phenoms.
Trying to figure out which guys are ready to break out in Year 2 can be a little risky, as it's very easy to get excited about young talent a year too early, but these are the ones I think have the best chance of making that leap this season.
Brandon Miller, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball checked in with 23.9 points in his 22 games last year, Miles Bridges averaged 21.0 points in 69 games and Miller scored 17.3 points in 74 games as a rookie. I expect that order to remain the same this year, but Miller is poised to get more shots and is a key piece to the Hornets' future. It shouldn't be difficult for Miller to build on those numbers and I could see him averaging 20.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 3.0 triples if the stars align. And if he takes the leap we're expecting him to, he's going to be a fun fantasy asset to have on your team. With an ADP currently around 65 and LaMelo throwing him passes, Miller should be in line for a big year and he should be viewed as a potential value pick in Round 5 or 6 of your draft.
Keyonte George, PG/SG, Utah Jazz
George's rookie numbers weren't exactly eye-popping but speaking of vision, he certainly passed the "eye test" for those who watched him play. His ADP is currently lingering around 135, which means you can probably get him late in standard leagues. My biggest concern is his shooting, as he checked in at just 39.1% to go along with 13 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 2.0 3-pointers his rookie year. But in 25 February and March games he looked better, averaging 15.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.5 triples. He also shot 43.2% from the floor in 11 February games, which is encouraging. I'm generally not drafting Jazz players, but I'll happily take a flier on George late, especially if I'm in need of a starting point guard. The sky's the limit for the kid out of Baylor and he should be unchallenged at his position.
Brandin Podziemski, SG, Golden State Warriors
Reports are that the Warriors want Podz to shoot 8-10 3-pointers a game this season, which makes sense given the loss of Klay Thompson. But they also have Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield and no player in the NBA has made more 3-pointers since the 2019-20 season than Hield has, including Curry and Luka Doncic. That leads me to believe that five attempts from beyond the arc for Podziemski makes more sense, but we'll have to see what happens. His rookie numbers were not mind-blowing, but he played in 74 games and averaged 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.2 3-pointers. A heavier workload should be coming his way and, like George, he passes the "eye test" and hustles and leaves it all on the floor when he plays. With a current ADP around 130, the risk will be low while the potential reward could be high. The Warriors need offense and the fact they want him to fire at will is encouraging. Take a late-round flier and see what happens. If he fails to get it done, drop him for a hot free agent.
Ausar Thompson, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Thompson Twin got off to a nice start last season but former coach Monty Williams crushed the dreams of fantasy managers and Thompson averaged fewer than 20 minutes in 15 January games. But Williams is gone, replaced by J.B. Bickerstaff, and we can only hope that he's been instructed to give Thompson all the minutes he can handle. He's a terrific athlete who could easily double up on last season's stats. It's not hard to imagine him averaging 18 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks this year, but he's not much of a 3-point threat (0.3 per game last season). The arrival of Tobias Harris is also slightly concerning, but the hype train should start rolling on Thompson if he gets off to a strong start. It's a matter of when, not if, he breaks out. Thompson's current ADP is hovering around 150, while his brother, Amen, is being taken much earlier at 102. Taking Amen in the Round 10 and Ausar with your last pick could pay nice dividends this season.
Scoot Henderson, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Henderson was invisible for much of the first half of the season but he's poised to be locked into the starting point-guard role this year and he finished strong in his rookie campaign. Keep in mind he won't turn 21 until just before the All-Star break, meaning he should be relatively safe from a benching as the Blazers will likely have an eye on a top draft spot for Cooper Flagg. Henderson averaged 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 3-pointers while shooting just 38.5% from the field last year. But he was much better after the break and peaked by averaging 19.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.9 triples in seven April games. Those numbers are quite enticing and while that April run made him a bit of a "silly season hero," he has nowhere to go but up. With an ADP of 130, he looks like another potential steal near the end of standard drafts.