Here are Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, AJ Mass, Kyle Soppe, Todd Zola and Mike Sheets to discuss which players are falling further than they should be in ESPN fantasy baseball drafts.
Kyle: It's close between a pair of pitchers for me and because I plan on drafting both of them routinely this season, I'm listing them both: Brandon Woodruff and Chris Paddack. Woodruff's sub-1.00 WHIP last season was no accident and his vast improvement in barrel avoidance has me ranking him as a tier 2 pitcher (currently being drafted in tier 3). For Paddack, I'm overlooking the 2020 numbers. Yes, they happened. They weren't good. But even in a down season, he held 2-3-4 hitters to a .153 batting average. This kid can get the best hitters in most lineups out and I think he's a top-20 pitcher this season that is being drafted around SP30.
Eric: I'm seriously gonna try waiting to fill my outfield -- all of it -- in a future mock draft and see if I like the overall team. I think I will! No definite stars still there after the top 200 but so much value. Dylan Carlson and Jarred Kelenic will be great. Clint Frazier and Jesse Winker have shown flashes. Adam Eaton and Corey Dickerson are reliable. Leody Tavares and Myles Straw can steal myriad bases. And don't forget what we've already seen from veterans Mitch Haniger and Hunter Dozier when healthy. These fellows have power and used to be in demand. They are for me in the latter rounds!
Mike: Karabell highlighted a slew of outfield values, so I'll hit on a trio of first basemen who are available after pick 200. The Angels' Jared Walsh is one of the players I'm most excited about. A late bloomer at age 27, Walsh came to the majors and batted .293 with nine homers and 26 RBIs in just 32 games last season. While that home-run pace is obviously unsustainable, it's not the first time he showed that kind of massive power, as he hit .325/.423/.686 and blasted 36 bombs in just 98 games at Triple-A in 2019. The kid can flat-out mash, and he's already done it at the big-league level, which means something. Albert Pujols may still get starts against lefties, but Walsh's power ceiling is tremendous for a guy who isn't even being drafted as a top-20 first baseman. Like Walsh, Bobby Dalbec made a similarly strong impression late last season, belting eight homers in just 23 games with the Red Sox. This was the same type of big-time power he flashed in the minors, where he swatted 32 homers between High-A and Double-A in 2018 and 27 homers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. Many will point to Dalbec's inflated 42.2% K rate in a small sample last season, but it's worth noting that he struck out 32% of the time in 2018 and knocked that down to 25% in 2019, so there's hope for similar improvement in 2021. Even if the batting average remains a liability, Dalbec will open the season as Boston's starting first baseman, and his power upside makes him worth a dart throw in the late rounds. After a knee injury limited him to only 13 games in 2020, C.J. Cron has been largely forgotten by the fantasy community, going undrafted in many leagues. With a potential starting job in Colorado, the 31-year-old slugger can't be ignored. Cron topped 25 homers in both 2018 and 2019, and he shouldn't have trouble eclipsing that mark again while playing half of his games at Coors Field.
Todd: I'll start at the top of the rankings and move downward, trying to hit on different types of players as examples. It appears to me the "he may be traded" discount on Trevor Story is pretty steep, maybe because I don't think he will be traded. Jose Abreu is being penalized too much for having such a great season. The problem is he was underrated previous to last year, so even with regression, the landing point should be higher than his current ADP. It appears many prefer to be one year too early on Starling Marte than one year too late. He's showing minimal signs of decline. Given, his current ranking is fine for points leagues, but rotisserie players are too shy when it comes to Adalberto Mondesi. Yes, there is risk, but the ceiling is the top player in fantasy. He doesn't throw hard, he plays in the AL East, but still, Hyun-Jin Ryu is a bargain where he's available. I'm not sure if J.T. Realmuto is too high, or Will Smith is too low, but especially in points leagues, there should not be a four to five round difference. If you want a good closer but don't want to pay up, wait on Trevor Rosenthal. Do you really believe Cedric Mullins will beat out Austin Hays? Neither do I. Kolten Wong could be a mini-beast in his new digs. Finally, if you like to wait on pitching, some intriguing names outside of the top-200 are James Paxton, Aaron Civale, Eduardo Rodriguez and James Urquidy.
AJ: Certainly, I'd want to have a few infield stars taken in the first six rounds of my draft, but if things went completely off the rails and I ended up with say, three star outfielders, two aces and an infield of Ryan Mountcastle, Nick Solak, Tommy Edman and Ke'Bryan Hayes by the end of Round 20 I wouldn't be completely depressed. Yet, not one of this quartet is ranked any higher than 15th at their respective positions in ADP. Especially for points leagues, I'd be quite happy with any of this group at my MI or CO spots. Plus, C.J. Cron has only been drafted in 6.5% of leagues? He'll definitely be drafted in mine.
Tristan: I can't believe that the big-three designated hitters -- J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez and Nelson Cruz -- are going only 87th, 94th and 94th overall this far. It seems that the tired, "clog your DH" rationale has been taken to its extremes, as while drafting a DH-only in the first 10 rounds of your draft does create some roster maneuverability problems, these are still excellent hitters who provide a massive amount of prospective profit at those price points. Consider these: Martinez was the No. 43 overall player as recently as 2019, Cruz has finished 53rd overall on the Player Rater in each of the past two seasons and Alvarez was a top-15 overall hitter in terms of batting average, home runs and RBIs in the 96 Houston Astros games during which he was on the active roster in 2019.
One more thing -- and again it's a "can't believe it" reaction -- but Adalberto Mondesi going outside the top 50 seems like too much of a downwards correction. I'm as hesitant to draft him as anyone, but he's going at least a round later than where I value him.