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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday

          Michael Wacha takes the ball against the scuffling White Sox. Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
          • Mike Sheets
          Jul 19, 2024, 03:58 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Look to Wacha

          With the All-Star festivities now in the rearview mirror, it's time to turn the page to the unofficial start of the second half of the season. Many teams have been slow to announce their starting rotation plans coming out of the break, but we'll do our best with the information we have.

          Because a lot of clubs will essentially reset their rotations and hand the ball to their aces on Friday, finding streaming options that aren't widely rostered is somewhat difficult. One name that stands out, however, is the Kansas City Royals' Michael Wacha, who is rostered in only 13% of ESPN leagues. While the right-hander has produced a solid 3.83 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP across 16 starts in 2024, he has really found his groove of late, generating a 2.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over his last nine turns. During that nine-start stretch, he surrendered more than two earned runs only one time.

          Wacha has found success by focusing on what works. His changeup grades out as his best pitch, and he throws it 32% of the time -- more than any other offering. The pitch has generated a 42.9% O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) and a 19.8% swinging-strike rate. For comparison, his four-steamer (which averages 93.5 mph) has a swinging-strike rate of just 7.2%.

          For fantasy managers who might be hesitant to rely on a hurler like Wacha who doesn't miss many bats, it's important to remember that the veteran righty isn't just a flash in the pan. He has consistently provided helpful ratios over the last couple of seasons. In 2022, he posted a 3.32 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 23 starts, and last season he had a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 24 outings. All told, that's a combined 3.41 ERA over his last 63 starts, spanning 351 innings.

          Against a weak Chicago White Sox lineup that sports an AL-worst 82 wRC+ over the past month, Wacha looks like a terrific streaming option on Friday. Scoop him up for that start and consider keeping him on your roster if he pitches well.

          What you may have missed over the break

          By Todd Zola

          • The Royals placed OF MJ Melendez on the IL due to a sprained left ankle that occurred on the Sunday heading into the All-Star break. The club called up OF Drew Waters from Triple-A Omaha to fill his open roster spot. Waters used to be a prospect of note, but he has yet to be productive at the major league level. Waters could see some action in left field, along with Adam Frazier, Dairon Blanco and Garrett Hampson.

          • The White Sox will promote Brooks Baldwin in advance of tonight's road date with the Royals. Baldwin is a natural shortstop, but he's been playing second and third base. His role is unclear, but his versatility should garner consistent playing time. Baldwin opened the season with Double-A Birmingham where he posted an .819 OPS and 16 steals in 74 games. He then played eight games with Triple-A Charlotte where the 23-year-old posted a 1.096 OPS.

          • The Oakland Athletics are going to call up SS Jacob Wilson from Triple-A Las Vegas. Wilson started the season in Rookie Ball, posting a 1.504 OPS in just five games. He advanced to Double-A Midland where he registered a 1.178 OPS in 22 games. Wilson played 19 games for the Aviators before being summoned, recording a 1.083 OPS. His gaudy numbers are driven by a high contact rate and favorable hitting environments. Wilson will probably take over as the everyday shortstop. He'll likely get on base, but he doesn't run much and it's unclear how his power will translate.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Sean Manaea (36%) is another potential streaming target for his road matchup against the Miami Marlins. The New York Mets lefty sports a 2.20 ERA over his last six starts with more than a strikeout per inning, and he should continue that recent success against the Marlins. Miami has been brutal versus left-handed pitching this season, ranking worst in baseball with a 70 wRC+ against them. When Manaea last faced the Marlins in mid-May, he picked up the win by delivering five innings of two-run ball.

          • It might be a good idea to avoid Nick Pivetta (67%) for Friday's start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he's a name to potentially target in the second half. Although his 4.18 ERA doesn't particularly stand out, his 3.74 xERA is a step in the right direction, and his 22.2% K-BB% ranks sixth-best in the AL. Not only that, but his 136 Stuff+ mark is tops in MLB (min. 70 IP).

          • Matt Waldron (25%) continues to fly under the fantasy radar despite posting a 2.72 ERA and an 0.99 WHIP over his last 12 starts. The knuckleballer has limited the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his past 12 outings, while registering a quality start in seven of his last nine turns. On Friday, he'll face off against a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has been cold of late, stumbling to a 89 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

          • With Chris Flexen taking the mound for the White Sox on Friday, we want to take a look at left-handed Royals bats. The right-hander has allowed a .381 wOBA to lefty swingers this season, putting Vinnie Pasquantino (78%), Michael Massey (3%), and Adam Frazier (1%) on the streaming/DFS radar for this contest.

          • Betting tip of the day: For today's bet, we're going to target Patrick Corbin, who sports the worst ERA In baseball at 5.57. Take over 5.5 hits allowed (-125) for the left-hander's home matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. Corbin has allowed at least six hits in 74% of his starts this season and Nationals Park inflates base-hit totals.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday