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          Fantasy baseball Thursday advice: Grab Yusei Kikuchi, Clarke Schmidt

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          • Mike Sheets
          Sep 19, 2024, 12:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Add and start Kikuchi where available

          With a 61% rostered percentage in ESPN leagues, Yusei Kikuchi comes in slightly above our 50% threshold, but we're bending the rules a bit for Thursday's 12-game slate. Although the Houston Astros left-hander has been featured in this space multiple times in recent weeks, he remains too widely available.

          Since being traded to Houston, Kikuchi has posted a 3.19 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in eight starts. During that stretch, he has fanned 59 batters in 48 innings (11.1 K/9) while walking only 12 (2.2 BB/9). Meanwhile, opposing hitters have managed just a .556 OPS against him since he joined the Astros, down from .750 before the trade.

          Overall, Kikuchi ranks in the top 10 in MLB in strikeout percentage (27.5%), K-BB% (21.1%), and Stuff+ (110) this season. That's not a hurler who should be hanging around on the waiver wire in such a large percentage of leagues.

          On Thursday, Kikuchi draws a highly favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, a team that ranks 29th in baseball over the last month with a 73 wRC+. Their 27.2% strikeout rate during that span is worst in the American League. If Kikuchi is still available in your league, change that now.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • Clarke Schmidt (30% rostered in ESPN leagues) has looked good since returning from the injured list, yielding only two runs in 10⅓ innings across two starts. Next up is a matchup against the Seattle Mariners. After throwing 75 pitches in his first start back and ramping up to 86 pitches in his latest outing, the right-hander appears to be fully stretched out for the remainder of the regular season and a potential playoff run. While the Mariners' offense has come alive of late, they still sport the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 27.5%.

          • Although we'd prefer a more favorable matchup for Luis Severino (35% rostered) than the Philadelphia Phillies, he faced them in his last outing and delivered a quality start. This time, he'll pitch at Citi Field, a much more pitcher-friendly venue. With a 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 over his last six starts, Severino belongs in the streamer discussion Thursday.

          • Kumar Rocker (11%) made a strong impression in his big league debut last week. Though he lasted only four innings, he surrendered just one run on three hits and two walks while striking out seven, good for a 41% strikeout rate. The downside here is that, after throwing only 74 pitches in his debut, the Texas Rangers may not want to extend him much past that the rest of the way. Even so, Rocker already looks like one of the game's most exciting young arms. In addition to a four-seamer that averaged 96.7 mph, he generated an impressive 13 whiffs with his slider (his most-used pitch) in just four frames. Thursday's start against the Toronto Blue Jays isn't ideal for the 24-year-old, but if you're chasing strikeouts for a final push, he's worth a look as a streamer. More than anything, Rocker should be on your radar for 2025.

          • If you're still looking for streaming options, perhaps add Joey Cantillo (2%) to the list. He has impressed over his last two starts, highlighted by a one-run, 10-strikeout effort against the Chicago White Sox on Sept. 9. Although the Minnesota Twins pose a stiffer test than his last two opponents, there are reasons to be bullish about Cantillo, who gets elite extension and possesses a filthy changeup that generates whiffs.

          • Brandon Pfaadt was already in the midst of a rough patch, and things only got worse for the righty in his last start when the Milwaukee Brewers pummeled him for eight runs in just 1⅔ innings. That ballooned his ERA over his last nine starts to 7.58. On Thursday, he matches up with the Brewers yet again, presenting a great opportunity to stream Milwaukee hitters. Jackson Chourio (69%), Brice Turang (67%), Rhys Hoskins (26%), Garrett Mitchell (1%) and Joey Ortiz (7%) all warrant consideration here, both for streaming and DFS purposes.

          • Betting tip of the day: On Thursday, take over 2.5 earned runs allowed (Even) for Pfaadt's matchup against Milwaukee. We cashed this same bet last week, and we're going back to the well. The right-hander has allowed three-plus runs in eight of his last nine starts, including all of his last six. The Brewers were part of that, hammering him for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings last Saturday.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday