It's obvious the teams at the top of college basketball are real contenders. But just as that group of elite teams had begun to separate itself from the pack, their weaknesses were revealed.
Purdue has the best college basketball player in the country and a great supporting cast, but after Tuesday's loss at Nebraska, every Boilermakers fan wonders if Zach Edey's foul trouble will cost them a shot at a national title. Houston scored just 53 points in a loss at Iowa State on the same night. Who could score for the Cougars if L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead have a tough night in the NCAA tournament? Kansas just lost to a UCF squad that had previously lost to... Stetson. And Tennessee surrendered more points in a loss to Mississippi State (77) than Southern scored in their win over the Bulldogs last month (60).
Arizona is rolling again, but the Wildcats surrendered 100 points in a loss at Stanford -- the same Cardinal that couldn't cross 80 in a loss at USC days later. Auburn, which has a puzzling loss at Appalachian State on its résumé, has been unstoppable lately, but we don't know if the Tigers are for real until the toughest portion of their conference schedule begins next month.
Kentucky? The Wildcats look good, but the history of teams ranked outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency (the Wildcats are 44th) reaching the Final Four isn't strong. UConn, Baylor, Duke? All teams with Final Four potential. But they, like the rest of their peers, still have room to grow.
Let's see what the weekend will bring for these and other title contenders.
All odds from ESPN Bet.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-3, 3-2 Big Ten) at Iowa Hawkeyes (9-6, 1-3 Big Ten)
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET, BTN
During the 1957-58 season, Jerry Bush led the Cornhuskers to a win over then-No. 1 Kansas State. His grandson, Fred Hoiberg, guided Nebraska to a win over No. 1 Purdue on Tuesday. When Hoiberg's grandfather was head coach, however, the NIT was still the supreme postseason event in the sport. If Keisei Tominaga (19 points, 5-for-9 from the 3-point line against Purdue) and his teammates can get a road win over the Hawkeyes on Friday, the Cornhuskers will add another Quad 1 victory to their résumé and boost their odds of earning an at-large berth for just the second time since 1998.
Medcalf's pick: Nebraska, 88-85; Against the spread: Nebraska (+4.5)
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (13-1, 1-0 Big 12) at No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (13-1, 1-0 Big 12)
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Houston's loss to the Cyclones on Tuesday could impact the final standings in the Big 12 -- the league's title has been either shared or won by a team with a one-game lead in the standings in three of the last five years. The winner of this Saturday afternoon battle could have an edge when the race is decided in March. And after KU's loss Wednesday, the sense of urgency is high for both teams. But the Jayhawks have home-court advantage. The Sooners meanwhile come with a top-10 national ranking, a loss at TCU and zero true road wins entering the week. Kevin McCullar Jr. (20.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.5 APG) looks like a first-team All-American and a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA draft right now, so the Sooners will have to play their best game this year to leave Lawrence with the victory.
Medcalf's pick: Kansas, 78-72; Against the spread: Oklahoma (+6.5)
St. John's Red Storm (11-4, 3-1 Big East) at No. 22 Creighton Bluejays (12-4, 3-2 Big East)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Rick Pitino is getting comfortable again in the Big East, which should worry the league. His team entered the week on a three-game winning streak (Hofstra, Butler, Villanova), with victories in five of its last six -- all of that before Wednesday's victory over Providence. The Johnnies have led the league in turnover percentage, per KenPom, and made 52% of their shots inside the 3-point line. Plus, Daniss Jenkins averaged 18.3 PPG and 6.7 APG during that three-game streak. On the other side, Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is the reason the Bluejays lead the Big East in efficiency inside the 3-point line on offense (61.6%) and defense (40.1% allowed).
Medcalf's pick: Creighton, 82-75; Against the spread: St. John's (+7.5)
No. 2 Houston Cougars (14-1, 1-1 Big 12) at TCU Horned Frogs (11-3, 0-1 Big 12)
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
A road loss in one of the most energized buildings in America isn't a reason for anyone to doubt Houston's title hopes. But the performances of two key players in that 57-53 loss might be a concern going forward. Jamal Shead is a strong candidate to win All-America honors, but his five turnovers were critical in that loss, and L.J. Cryer, Houston's top scorer this season, had just five points. It's unlikely we'll see that duo combine for a similar off-night the rest of the way. But an angry TCU squad, which just beat top-10 Oklahoma, is still thinking about that controversial loss at Kansas from last weekend.
Medcalf's pick: Houston, 72-66; Against the spread: Houston (-4.5)
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf's picks straight up: 23-11
Against the spread: 17-17